Hit/Flop Shows

Hi,
I'm suppose to give a lecture about musical theater, and I want to talk about how hard it is to predict if a show would be a hit or a flop, and I want to do it in a sort of interactive way, where I let the audience to be "Investors", and I provide them facts about a show(without saying it's name) and ask them would they invest money in it or not.
In order to do so I would love if you could help me think of shows that you would think that would succeed but actually flopped financially, and shows the succeed to bring big bucks although you never would guess it.
extra points to people who can help me think of illusive titles, like talking about Yeston's Phantom vaguely for example.

Sorry for the long post,
Hope I was clear, sorry it's just hard for me to write in English

One example is The Last Ship. Sting's music should have insured this would be a hit.It closed after less than 3 months

More examples

Peter Allen Legs Diamond
Elton John Lestat

---

Young Frankenstein seemed like a sure thing after Mel Brooks became a Broadway darling with The Producers.

Needless to say, lightning did not strike twice. The show was met with mixed to disappointing word of mouth and reviews, and it barely ran just over a year.

I believe it was.

---

That isn't true, Fantod. A CHORUS LINE was a must-have-ticket at the Public and was the most anticipated show of the Broadway season in which it opened. (The only possible exception would have been CHICAGO, because of Fosse and the great cast, but I don't remember people anticipating it quite so eagerly.)

And the myth of OKLAHOMA! as unexpected hit has been greatly exaggerated, as more recent accounts suggest. ONE guy supposedly telegraphed "No jokes, no legs, no chance!" after the first tryout in New Haven and that has been inflated into the Myth of the Unlikely Hit.

But despite Hammerstein's flops of the late 1930s, Rodgers was in his prime and the Theatre Guild itself was a force to be reckoned with. And Hammerstein was still the author of SHOW BOAT and the more successful operettas of the 1920s and early 30s.

The myth of low expectations grew incrementally as OK! became the biggest hit of all time.

***

P.S. to the OP: any book on Broadway flops will give you numerous examples of supposedly "flop-proof" shows as well as unlikely successes.

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 06:14 PM

Just this last season Bullets Over Broadway and Rocky were expected to be the hits of the season, while many were surprised that Gentleman's Guide lasted AND took home the Tony.

What about Wicked v The Baker's Wife?

---

Was anyone really expecting Spider-Man to be a hit, though? I recall everyone, even the general non-theatre public, expecting Spidey to crash and burn.

---

What about Hairspray? A 1980s cult film turned into a musical that opened in the summer? Did people think it was going to be as big a hit as it was?

And what about Honeymoon in Vegas? Great out of town tryout reviews, written by a Tony Award winning composer. You'd think that would be a huge success, but it's barely making- if even -it's nut!

The crappy weather did not help it.

---

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 08:53 PM

Beats the hell out of me as to why it is so popular. My wife and I hated every minute of it as did those around us that day.

---

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 09:17 PM

GavestonPS, I was aware of both of those situations, but I was referring to their gestations. A Chorus Line was created by a group of realitive unknowns in a brand new fashion, though I suppose you are more right than I am.

Oklahoma! However, was based on a flop play that also happened to be terrible. Rodgers was in his prime, but Hammerstein was considered a has-been. It featured a cast of relative unknowns and the theatre guild was actually going bankrupt around that time. This is just what I know off of the top of my head, so calm down Jordan Catalano,

Would holiday musical be considered flops? How could they earn back all that money in 12 weeks

---