He was excellent, but he's not a shoo-in.
Older Tony who saw the original voters might compare him negatively to Gene Nelson, and he'll have strong competition from Norm, who might be rewarded for giving a strong, solid performance in a classic role even though he is overshadowed by his illustrious co-star, and from Steve Kazee, an excellent actor who is baring his soul open every night onstage under trying personal circumstances.
It could be any one of the three of them and it would be a well-deserved award.