If SPONGEBOB wins, the better comparison would be BILLY ELLIOT winning over NEXT TO NORMAL.
I think there will be a strong amount of votes thrown towards SPONGEBOB, MEAN GIRLS, and BAND'S VISIT. If it is evenly spread, any one could inch forward to claim the trophy. We'll see how the politics line up. I actually see the industry votes aligning moreso for two of these, so it's possible this year that the votes from those voting from their heart, rather than politically, might choose the winner. And I know a lot of voters who both loved and dismissed BAND'S VISIT. I think this year things are not as straightforward as many here believe. The win of KINKY BOOTS over MATILDA comes to mind as a similar year where MATILDA seemed the sure frontrunner, but KINKY very close to the voting deadline seemed to suddenly become more of a contender than was suspected, and eventually won.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle