I would give Chaperone the lead so far. It's the only completely original show. It got great reviews out of town. No one (who hasn't seen it) can really judge Wedding Singer yet, as it just opened today and reviews won't be out until this weekend. And even though Jersey Boys has gotten great reviews, so did All Shook Up. It was touted as one of the best of the jukebox musical genre, but it got NOTHING. Granted, it had competition from four highly successful shows, but it's enough to warrant that a jukebox musical will have a VERY hard time winning a Best Musical Tony.
It's between Chaperone and Wedding Singer, in my opinion. But then again, I've only seen Wedding Singer and I'm just judging from buzz, reviews and politics.
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