Is this really the most predictable Tony year?

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:49am

Riedel said it was...I couldn't help but agree. There's no little musical that could to beat BILLY ELLIOT (though I'd be happy if any of the 4 musicals nominated won). HAIR, the best production of the season, wins revival by default. Alice Ripley wouldn't have such an easy shot if there were stronger competition. No contest that Geoffrey Rush will win Best Actor.

To me, the greatest competition is in Lead Actress in a Play and Featured Actress in a Musical.

Your thoughts?

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:56am

Uhm, Featured Actor in a Musical is RIDICULOUS. For a while, we thought that the contest would be down to Will Swenson and Christopher Sieber (who are BOTH playing caricatures and cartoon characters), but then GoldDerby almost unanimously picked Jbara and he's thrown into the horse race.

[lull89]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:56am

I don't know if it's the MOST predictable year ever. I mean, yes Billy will likely sweep, but the only categories I think that are absolutely, positively, upset-of-the-year, LOCKED for them are Choreography and Musical. A lot of the rest of the categories will likely go to Billy, but I feel like those categories have at least one strong, deserving competitor, and there could possibly be a few upsets.

And a lot of the plays seem very exciting to me, it's a lot less clear cut in those races, anyway.

[ThankstoPhantom]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:58am

I agree that it is likely going to be a relatively predictable year...even if one can't guess all the specific winners, one can still pinpoint two or three likely winners. I think this is mostly true for best shows and best performances. Creative awards are seeming to sometimes be between several people. But this year's big winner is probably going to be Billy Elliot.

[sally1112]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:10am

There can always be some cray upsets. It has happened many times before. Many people were hosting their congrats to Miss Lupone parties for her Sweeney Todd Tony that she of course never received.

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:11am

I think it's fairly predictable, but I guess we won't know for sure until around 11PM Sunday. I think it would have been far more interesting if some of the overlooked performances and shows like Equus, Daniel Radcliffe, Tovah Feldshuh, and Blithe Spirit had been nominated.

[TheresaG]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:14am

The year The Producers was nominated a real predictable year, too. So it might be a tie for the predictability spot.

I also think there will be one upset somewhere. Maybe WSS over Hair? I still get moved when I hear that WSS story music come up; but then again Hair stirs me too.... tie maybe?
Updated On: 6/5/09 at 10:14 AM

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:17am

Could you imagine if the Best Actress nominees had Kristin Scott Thomas? There would have been NO predicting that award, but no matter who won it would have been fabulous.

[J'aime GG]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:14pm

"Could you imagine if the Best Actress nominees had Kristin Scott Thomas?"

Great, now I'm all pissed off again.

[AndAllThatJazz22]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 9:36pm

I'm totally in for a night of surprises. I personally think that Hair, although it is easily the most deserving show, will loose BEST REVIVAL to West Side Story. West Side Story has been one of the more popular shows of the season. Billy Elliot and West Side Story were the biggest money traps of the season... not to mention that it is a hell of a lot more recognizable than Hair.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:41pm

WEST SIDE STORY won't win: it disappointed so many people, and there's not a lot of good will towards it from the Community.

I don't know about predictability: you never know whether a surprise will come just because the voters want a surprise to come.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 10:45pm

Lol. BWW does not make up the entire "community."

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 11:04pm

Lol. BWW does not make up the entire "community."

Check out the Average Reader Reading at the link below: that can be a good indication of what the audience thinks (and this is after the New York Times review, when [if the review is good] ratings tend to go up).

http://theater2.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/theater/reviews/20west.html?scp=3&sq=West%20Side%20Story%20Ben%20Brantley&st=cse

[taylorPHENOMENON2]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 11:06pm

I'm totally in for a night of surprises. I personally think that Hair, although it is easily the most deserving show, will loose BEST REVIVAL to West Side Story.

I think HAIR is one of the definites.

[bschneid76]

Posted: 6/5/09 at 11:56pm

I'm always for some upsets during any awards show. It shakes things up and always makes the awards more interesting. But I haven't seen a good "upset" in a while.

[singtopher]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 7:41am

Isn't every year somewhat predictable? Can anyone think of a year where most of the categories were total toss-ups? And someone has mentioned it before that THE PRODUCERS wasn't up against much, and I disagree that there is no "little musical that could this year" Next to Normal fills that slot to me.

[songanddanceman2]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 8:02am

2Alice Ripley wouldn't have such an easy shot if there were stronger competition"

Utter Rubbish, her performance is the best ive seen in years in a NY Musical

[AndAllThatJazz22]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 10:02am

I just REALLY worry that West Side Story's popularity and grosses will overshadow Hair's quality. Believe me, I want Hair to win more than you know!!!!!! Jeez, just look at my avatar! I just get the feeling that West Side Story will shock us and beat it out.

[DRSisLove]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 10:07am

I don't think this year is predictable at all.
Billy Elliot may be predicted to win, but Next to Normal has a chance. While I did not enjoy the latter at all, many people did and it got stellar reviews.

I, for one, am hoping Alice Ripley does not win. Her performance was just not for me, at all. I would love it if Josephina took the award. I would also love it if David Bologna took the Featured Actor in a Musical award, even though I want Greg Jbara to win.

I was West Side Story to win over Hair, although I doubt it will happen. I loved both productions, but for some reason enjoyed WSS just a tiny bit more.

[yeah]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 10:15am

The last big upset, that comes to my mind, was when "Avenue Q" undeservedly beat out the "Wicked" machine (and, no, I didn't want "Wicked" to win; I was all for "Caroline, or Change").

I'm really hoping and pulling for a "Next To Normal" over "Billy Elliot" upset! It's time!!

[Felm_heart]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 8:43pm

This year is NOT predictable. There are many opportunities for upsets. N2N could easily take Best Musical away from Billy. I also think that virtually every acting category is pretty wide open, with the exception of Rush and Ripley's guaranteed wins.

[Byron Abens]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 9:32pm

I agree with you, Felm, that most of the acting categories are pretty open, especially Featured Actress in a musical (where I've seen 4 out of the 5 nominees, didn't manage to make it to West Side Story). I would not be at all surprised if Haydn Gwynne and Karen Olivo split the vote, thus allowing one of the other three nominees to sneak in for the win, much like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson splitting the vote and letting Judy Holliday take home Best Actress at the '51 Academy Awards.
Updated On: 6/6/09 at 09:32 PM

[little_sally]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 9:48pm

Actually, I think there are so many deserving nominees that anything can happen. But I won't hold my breath.

[little_sally]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 9:48pm

Actually, I think there are so many deserving nominees that anything can happen. But I won't hold my breath.

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 6/6/09 at 10:23pm

I agree with little_sally. There are MANY deserving nominees. They certainly balance out the undeserving nominees (cough, Carole Shelley/Constantine Maroulis, cough), but the deserving ones are dynamite. This year may be predictable to some, but basically no matter what it will be a generally satisfying year. Just my opinion.