My Updated 2008 Tony Predictions

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:01pm

I couldn't find my previous thread, so I'll post a new one:
First, all of this years musicals:
(I also have them rated on how well reviews were, going from best to worst the choices are Great Reviews, Positive Reviews, Ok Reviews, Mediocre Reviews, and Terrible Reviews)

Xanadu-Great Reviews
Grease-Mediocre Reviews
Young Frankenstein-Ok Reviews
The Little Mermaid-Mediocre Reviews
Passing Strange-Positive Reviews
In the Heights-Positive Reviews
Sunday-Great Reviews
Gypsy-Great Reviews
South Pacific-The Best Reviewed Show this Season
A Catered Affair-Ok Reviews
Cry Baby-(Based on Word of Mouth) Ok to Mediocre Reviews (It has been improving, lets not forget)
Glory Days-(Based on Word of Mouth) Mediocre to Terrible Reviews

About Cry Baby, I could see some critics actualy enjoying this show. I'm not sure why, but I could imagine them really getting a kick out of this show. I'll see for myself tommorrow.
Thus, here are my Best Musical/ Best Revival Predicted Nominations:

Best Musical:
In the Heights (Definate)
Passing Strange (Almost Definate)
Xanadu (Very Likely)
Young Frankenstein (See below)

Right now, Young Frankenstein has been popular with the Awards comitees for OCC & DL. I can see why, as it is an enjoyable show, but that could easily be replaced by either A catered Affair, or Cry Baby. Glory Days doesn't even seem good enough to be nominated, but who knows?

What do I want to win? I don't want to see Passing Strange become this year's Spring Awakening and win EVERY SINGLE AWARD INVENTED! I feel ok that it wasn't nominated by OCC, for the fact that atleast other shows will be able to win awards as well, unlike last year. In the Heights is the little show which can this year, and now it's one of the best new shows this season, and everyone loves it. Should Cry Baby heavily improve, it could either be nominated, win (if incredibly great), or become the Legally Blonde of this season and win nothing, hbut become a fan favorite. Xanadu isn't neccessarily the little show that could, as much as it's the biggest suprise of the decade. Dark horse indeed, it would be great for it to win. A Catered Affair looks like the Love/Musik of this season, with a strong book, pretty good songs, and strong acting from past favorites. Young Frankenstein? Sure it could win, but the others are much more likely. I really do hope it becomes a success, for it was good, if not very good. In my mind, it was badly marketed, and the story shouldn't have been toyed with as much. Little Mermaid? Everyone on this board knows how much i love this show. could it be Tarzan, and get nominated for one award? Yes, but I really think of it to be more like Aida, and win some awards for it's acting, and maybe it's beautiful score. Final prediction? In the Heights

Best Revival Nominations (Not even predictable, but CERTAIN)
South Pacific
Gypsy
Sunday
Grease

The winner could be any of the four, EXCEPT GREASE! It has as much chance of winning as Carrie did! This season was strongest in it's revivals, unlike some previous years, and i'm very happy for their successes. Gypsy? It's the one I really want to win, as well as Sunday, but South Pacific seems to be the obvious winner, and will definately win for design. No question.
However, it would be great to see Sunday walk away with this award, to finally see this show be the success it should have been all those years ago. Gypsy is somewhere in the middle, honestly, though it really should win, along with Sunday. In my opinion, South Pacific will win Best Costumes and Best Sets (if they don't go to Young Frankenstein), Sunday will win Best Lighting, Gypsy wil win Best Leading & featured Actresses, and could easily win Best Director along with it. In my opinion, who ever doesn't win Director between gypsy & South Pacific, the other will win Best Revival. However, if neither win Best Director, and they both loose to Sunday, Gypsy will most likely win over Sunday. The only way I could see Sunday winning is if it transfers to a full run, in which case, it really could win. Really, this is the hardest choice of all. Final guess? Gypsy

your thoughts?

[joe5]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:06pm

Sorry, Passing Strange Great reviews. Please if your going post get it right!!!!!! You have a thing against PS and it shows.


Updated On: 4/23/08 at 02:06 PM

[songanddanceman2]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:26pm

and Grease got terrible reviews

[Ryan4]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:33pm

Sorry, but "Gypsy" doesn't have a shot to beat "South Pacific" for Best Revival. It may do well in the acting categories, but elsewhere its chances are pretty much nil.

And "Passing Strange" is thus far the best reviewed new musical of the season, certainly as strong as "Xanadu".

[shesamarshmallow]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:37pm

Your horrible Glory Days "word of mouth" is based on two/three posters in ONE thread on BroadwayWorld. So far it sounds better than word of mouth was for Cry Baby after its first preview.

Not saying it's winning any Tonys. Just saying that predicting "mediocre to terrible" reviews (which you didn't ascribe to ANY other show this season) is a little harsh.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:40pm

I'd say Passing Strange's reviews are better than Xanadu's. And possibly better than South Pacific's, which while mostly raves did earn a couple of shrugs in some important places like Wall Street Journal and New York Magazine.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:42pm

I'm not against it at all! Also, Xanadu recieving Great reviews above Passing Strange can be justified by the fact that it was the suprise hit of the season.

[joe5]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:55pm

I don't want to come across as mean. But we are talking reviews and you are wrong. Not talking hits of the season.



Updated On: 4/23/08 at 02:55 PM

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 2:58pm

Also, Xanadu recieving Great reviews above Passing Strange can be justified by the fact that it was the suprise hit of the season.

How is Xanadu the "surprise hit of the season"? I'm very curious.

[Malice]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 3:04pm

This seems to be the first year where I have been getting to see a good portion of the shows ahead of the Tony awards and nominations, usually it is always later. So here are my very biased thoughts and crazy opinions and I play favorites.

Best musical (I have been a fandu since last October)
Xanadu all the way. I am totally biased though I admit it.

Best revival is close, I just saw Gypsy and South Pacific, and Sunday in the Park with George. There isn't an ice cube's chance in hell Grease will win. As excellent as Sunday in the Park With George and Gypsy both are, South Pacific will probably win.

Best actress is Patti Lupone's all the way I think. Now if there was some sort of crazy upset and people may think I am crazy for thinking this, but, I actually think Kerry Butler gave a much stronger performance in Xanadu compared to Kelli O'Hara in South Pacific.

What about best actor that is tough? Maybe either Daniel Evans or Paulo Szot? I know he is a long shot for winning, but I do hope Cheyenne Jackson might be nominated.

For the featured peformers I just hope my favorites are at least nominated, Boyd Gaines, Mary Testa, Jackie Hoffman, Tony Roberts, Allison Fraser, Laura Benatti, Danny Burstein.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 3:50pm

I disagree, Patti Lupone may be giving the performance of her career, but she has competition from Kerry(hopefully shes nominated), Jenna, and Kelli(hopefully she wins). If all these four are nminated its going to be a tough decision since each brings something different to the table in their prospective performances that in my eyes makes it Tony worthy. So the award is definitely not going to Patti at this stage. Who gets the award, first watch the nominations, then watch the Tony awards to find out.


Updated On: 4/23/08 at 03:50 PM

[zooxanthellae]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 3:53pm

Best New Musical:
A Catered Affair
Passing Strange
In the Heights*
Young Frankenstein


Best Revival:
Gypsy
Sunday in the Park With George
South Pacific*

*-will win, in my opinion.

Patti will win best Actress, Daniel Evans or Lin-Manuel Miranda will win best Actor, Laura Benanti will win Best supporting Actress, and Boyd Gaines will win Best Supporting Actor.

[frogs_fan85]

Posted: 4/23/08 at 11:48pm

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Young Frankenstein will get the fourth slot for Best Musical along with Passing Strange, In the Heights and Xanadu.

[scaryclowns223]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 12:06am

You know, I really do think Young Frankenstein will grab that fourth slot, if only to attract viewers to the Tony telecast.

I mean, I honestly didn't think it was THAT bad...I thought it was a pretty good show, at least as good as Mary Poppins...

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 12:19am

Passing Strange and Xanadu were the best reviewed shows of the year and in almost totally opposite ways, in terms of the tones of reviews.

The Washington Post called Xanadu,"One of the biggest surprise hits in Broadway history." (Not to mention the season.)

The reason why, I would think, was because they took source material that inspired the creation of the razzies and ended movie musicals for an entire decade, and turned it into one of the most beloved crowd pleasing, critically acclaimed musical comedies in years.

It made total sense that people assumed it would close in one night. There were no out of town runs, no out of town reviews to tell people what to think of it. They did the UNTHINKABLE and opened it on Broadway, which is rarely, rarely done.

I just read the book they made over the past couple days. It is pretty interesting actually - it tells the story in a way of all this.

[perfectliar]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 2:46am

The only thing that worries me about Young Frankenstein if it should be nominated would be the tour vote... I feel like they'd vote for it just because they see its market value. Although I do suppose the name itself would sell the show without adding "Best Musical Tony-Winner" to its marquee.

I don't know, really. I could definitely see Young Frankenstein taking that spot, but I feel like it could also go to A Catered Affair (or even Cry-Baby depending on the reviews tonight).

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 3:36am

I think the 4th slot is between Strange and Xanadu. While reviews do matter to voters, they often don't, in the cast of Mary Poppins sneaking in. I think YF, Heights, and Xanadu are locks. Its between Strange and Catered Affair. Not everyone is hip to Passing Strange and its odd form that feels more special event than musical. I think Strange has it though. Won't win, but will likely take the 4th slot.

[LimelightMike]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 3:41am

Bobby, Bobby -- I disagree. LoL

IN MY HUMBLE OPINON, I believe it'll come down to:

P A S S I N G S T R A N G E

I N T H E H E I G H T S

X A N A D U

A C A T E R E D A F F A I R

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 7:17am

BobbyBuddy, I completely agree. It would be nice to see Young Frankenstein win some major award, for as I said before, it really was good! Xanadu was the suprise of the season, and In the Heights is almost the Grey Gardens of this year, starting out as a small off broadway show, and becoming this popular. Infact, it's realy great to see this show filling up to 80, 75, 90 percent every week! True success story in my mind.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 7:20am

Learn how to spell.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 7:49am

Did I not just?

[LuPonatic]

Posted: 4/24/08 at 8:50am

I definitely think Young Frankenstein, In the Heights, and Xanadu will be nominated, with the fourth slot between A Catered Affair and Passing Strange.

A Catered Affair is an emotional story, but I think it's score is it's downfall. Hasn't that man ever seen "Merrily We Roll Along." You gotta give the people a "humm-mu-mu-mumm-able melody," which A Catered Affair does not. Give me a bouncy showtune in two any day! And Passing Strange, I know people are all for it in that "artsy-fartsy" sort of way, but I don't see the artistic value in a urinal, either.

Who knows, maybe Cry Baby will get good reviews, and shake everything up!

[jonartdesigns]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 10:55pm

i'm currently only weighing in on best supporting actress in a musical.

My Thoughts
Sherie Renee Scott- The Little Mermaid
Ali Mauzey-Cry Baby
Laura Benanti- Gypsy
Loretta Ables Sayre- South Pacific
TOSS UP: Harriet Harris- Cry Baby, Mary Testa- Xanadu, Megan Mullally- Young Frankenstein(unless they deemed her leading)

[rufussars]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:52pm

Sherie deserves a nod, but doubt she'll nab one, as I doubt will anyone but Harriet Harris from Cry Baby. Unless fueled purely by her television fame, Megan could never grab a nomination with the size of that role. Andrea could easily take a nomination, as could Sutton. Xanadu, Gypsy, and In the Heights could also likely contribute one nod each, giving us a solid candidate pool.

[Heybeenfood]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:12am

I am really pulling for Eisa Davis to get a nomination. She had me in tears.