NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?
NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?
NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#1
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:24pm
While I am overjoyed that NEXT TO NORMAL will be coming to Broadway, I'm not quite sure what kind of a life it can have on the Great White Way. Sadly, I don't see it making it through a year (though I hope I am wrong!).
Thoughts?
--Aristotle
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#2
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:34pmI hope I'm wrong too, but there seems to be many great seats available as of now. I hope people start buying tickets. I've seen it three times (twice off-bway and once in Washington) and it is one of the most incredible experiences. Alice Ripley's performance alone is what legends are made of.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#2
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:34pm
It will definitely play at least through the Tony Awards. After that, who knows? I do not see it breaking box office records at the Booth Theater, but I'm thrilled that this cast gets to perform on Broadway.
Alice Ripley's last huge Broadway turn was over 10 years ago in SIDE SHOW. That show was also excellent, but their marketing people did not know how to promote a show - the window card was hideous, there was little-to-no advertising, tourists didn't even know the show was running (and they should have because it was brilliant). I sincerely hope the producers of NEXT TO NORMAL make good use of advertising and marketing so that positive word-of-mouth can spread to try and get butts in the seats. I only wish the best for this show.
Updated On: 3/2/09 at 08:34 PM
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#2
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:34pmIt's definitely going to be a word-of-mouth show. It could end up like Spring Awakening in that it starts off slowly but later ends but then as word-of-mouth grows it ends up being successful.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#4
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:36pmThey're lucky to be coming to Broadway. Unless they win Best Musical, I expect to see this show run through the Tonys until no later than September.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#5
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:49pm
Oh I don't expect it to be sold out from the get-go. It has strong buzz amongst routine theatregoers, but tourists have no clue. It's DEFINITELY a word-of-mouth deal.
Unfortunately, I don't see it getting the sustained hype that SPRING AWAKENING grew. SPRING AWAKENING had a stronger marketability with the college crowd, anyway. I mean, two of their songs contained profanity in the title and there is on-stage nudity.
With NEXT TO NORMAL, you have a suburban family with a psycho mommy and druggie daughter. Pretty typical setup for a play. What makes the show is the score and some of the performances. Those are the hooks.
I'm with Piragua. Without a Tony win, I doubt it will play past the summer. 
I do hope they will allow the show to be licensed to regionals very soon after its Broadway life.
--Aristotle
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#6
Posted: 3/2/09 at 8:56pm
I have faith in the producers and the marketing team that they will employ.
We'll see, but I have faith and like WAT (and unlike many people on this board) I wish nothing but the best for this show.
We can predict and predict til the cows come home but the thing is, with Broadway, you just really never know. No one thought SPRING AWAKENING would be a hit. Ditto for AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY. Many thought TARZAN would be a smash. Granted, they all didn't open during an economic recession but still, I have faith. It's a great show with a great cast and it's opening in a much better location (right across the street from BILLY ELLIOT, mind you) so we'll see. I think predictions are a bit ridiculous at this point. I mean, tickets went on sale this morning.
Updated On: 3/2/09 at 08:56 PM
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#7
Posted: 3/2/09 at 9:00pmI've said it before and I'll say it again - location means NOTHING to a show's performance. Especially in this economy, nobody buys tickets because of an exciting marquee. A show could do great at the Cort and flop at the Palace.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#8
Posted: 3/2/09 at 9:06pmIt looks like they'll do a much better job of promoting it than Side Show, though, because when it was in DC, the kids at my school were inundated with emails, discount offers, ads, and chances to win free tickets. They tried to market it to a younger crowd, listing everything that kids don't like about musicals and explaining how Next to Normal doesn't have any of those flaws... oh yeah, and they actually advertised how 'hot' Aaron Tveit is.
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#9
Posted: 3/2/09 at 9:07pm
My point is that the Booth will get a lot more passersby and tourists walking by it than the Longacre would because of its location. It really does help, especially during the summer months when tourists are all over. Plus, the Booth is also smaller than the Longacre and will (obviously) be easier to fill.
Location probably isn't the point that sells people to get their tickets but it definitely helps. I know many people who go see shows on a whim because they pass by and go in looking for tickets for that evening's show and go see it. And I'm talking about shows ranging from IN MY LIFE to BILLY ELLIOT to XANADU to GLORY DAYS.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#10
Posted: 3/2/09 at 9:10pm
RE: Location -- I have seen tourists walk by SPAMALOT and think it was a restaurant.
And RE: Pointless to predict: not for the aspiring producers among us. No harm, regardless.
--Aristotle
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#11
Posted: 3/2/09 at 9:13pm
I didn't mean what I said. Sorry, that was my fault...I'm so freaking tired.
I meant it's pointless to say (at this point) that the show isn't selling well. The tickets haven't even been on sale for 24 hours. It's not like an original musical like this is gonna start selling out performances the minute tickets go on sale.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#12
Posted: 3/3/09 at 1:01amAlice basically has the leading actress Tony in the bag. That might be all it wins, but that should be enough to get some butts in the seats.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#13
Posted: 3/3/09 at 2:06am
"With NEXT TO NORMAL, you have a suburban family with a psycho mommy and druggie daughter. Pretty typical setup for a play. What makes the show is the score and some of the performances."
Pretty typical set- up for a play? For a Broadway musical? Really? I can't think of one other show with this set- up... A "psycho mommy" as you put it and "druggie daughter" and "numb dad" confronting a tragedy from years ago? I can't think of one other show that fits that description.
Meanwhile, as you were comparing it with Spring Awakening, I can think of 20 Broadway musicals about teenagers rebelling against society and their elders.
Besides for that, I don't actually think the core plot premise has anything to do with lasting power on Broadway...
It's all about those reviews and Tony Awards. The producers are bringing the show to Broadway because they believe in the show AND in the fact that it has a shot at those two holy grails I just mentioned. If it manages to get a RAVE in the Times or some great publicity through the Tony's, or something of that ilk, it will last longer than it will if it doesn't. It's that simple.
It's an original musical without movie stars in it. It's not going to sell many tickets before buzz and reviews come around.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#14
Posted: 3/3/09 at 2:44am
I'm talking about marketable points moreso than plot points being atypical. Coming up with play titles with similar premises is beside the point.
What I am saying is that SPRING AWAKENING was able to build and sustain an audience from scratch because of its marketable advantages: 1) younger cast in show about teen angst, 2) songs including profanity in the title, 3) nudity, 4) Duncan Sheik's name, 5) attractive actors.
NEXT TO NORMAL has a similar road to Broadway, but has less marketable points and therefore will be more difficult, I think, to find & keep its audience than SPRING AWAKENING did.
A teen after seeing SPRING AWAKENING can build word-of-mouth by telling their friends "you should see this show called SPRING AWAKENING! there's a bunch of cute guys in it and the score is rockin'! They're jumping up and down with the on stage audience singing a song called TOTALLY F*CKED and earlier they sing a song called BITCH OF LIVING with this fun choreography. Duncan Sheik wrote it!"
A teen after seeing NEXT TO NORMAL can build word-of-mouth by telling their friends "you should see this show NEXT TO NORMAL. it's a rockin' score, the mom is psycho, the daughter is a druggie with her bf, and there is a dead brother who is totally hot."
I have no clue how well I am articulating myself. It's late and I got little sleep last night, too, so I may not be coherent.
--Aristotle
Featured Actor Joined: 1/8/07
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#15
Posted: 3/3/09 at 3:15amOn the other hand, Next To Normal is not as controversial as Spring Awakening. You can recommend it to anybody without fear that more conversative family members will be offended. You can bring your kids. There isn't really an original rock musical left on Broadway any more, at least one that speaks to a younger demographic. Tony Awards don't sell tickets unless it's the Best Musical award, and Billy Elliot has that in the bag this year. Reviews might convince some to come, but only if they are unanimous out and out raves, and even then, that will die out soon. Word of mouth is what builds audiences and sustains a show over the long run. Everyone who loves Next to Normal should be doing all they can to make sure this show survives.
Broadway Star Joined: 7/9/08
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#16
Posted: 3/3/09 at 3:44amYeah, while I think on the whole N2N is a better crafted show, it doesn't have the shock value (no pun intended) of 15 teens dancing while belting obscenities. I really want this show to do well, but as others have said I don't see it running much longer than the Tony's. I think it's success will really be dependent upon Tony noms and awards.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#17
Posted: 3/3/09 at 6:41am
Alice basically has the leading actress Tony in the bag.
Raul Esparza probably thought the same thing the year he was nominated for Company. He ended up losing to a well-liked television star for his performance in a musical comedy. If anyone is going to beat Ripley it's probably going to be another well-liked television star in a musical comedy...
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#18
Posted: 3/3/09 at 6:47amYeah, but Lauren Graham really did not get across the board raves, or even positive notices. David Hyde Pierce did get solid reviews for Curtains. Not that I'm defending his win over Esparza.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#19
Posted: 3/3/09 at 9:47am
I was NOT referring to Lauren Graham, whose reviews indicate she is not a factor in the Tony race. I was referring to Allison Janney, whose performance in 9 to 5 received raves out of town.
Updated On: 3/3/09 at 09:47 AM
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#20
Posted: 3/3/09 at 9:56am^Agreed. It's going to be a tough call this year.
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#21
Posted: 3/3/09 at 10:15amCapn, you gave away a major plot twist in your post about Gabe. You may want to SPOILER ALERT it.
Swing Joined: 2/27/09
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#22
Posted: 3/3/09 at 10:56am
"A teen after seeing NEXT TO NORMAL can build word-of-mouth by telling their friends "you should see this show NEXT TO NORMAL. it's a rockin' score, the mom is psycho, the daughter is a druggie with her bf, and there is a dead brother who is totally hot."
I've never seen the show, but i will when my next trip to NY is, But can anyone elaborate on the whole Gabe is a dead brother? I never knew that(I knew there was a plot twist though.) I really dont mind knowing.
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#23
Posted: 3/3/09 at 11:24am
I love Next to Normal. It is no secret. However, I question the statement that you can recommend it to anyone because it is not controversial. In what world is a show about mental illness, suicide, and drug use in a contemporary middle class suburban family in America something you would recommend to everyone? It does deal with uncomfortable stuff and maybe it does not deal with the same stuff as Spring Awakening, but I certainly would not recommend it to my conservative family or for young kids.
I think part of the issue is this family is just like us collectively speaking; that is, typical middle-class American at an initial glance. One can not distance ourselves from them like in such shows as Rent and Spring Awakening as having characters "different" from us. That may make it uncomfortable for some.
I hope this show succeeds, but I am under no delusion that there is something for everyone in it and that it will be a box office smash.
Featured Actor Joined: 9/21/05
re: NEXT TO NORMAL box office predictions?#24
Posted: 3/3/09 at 1:08pmA nice discount code would help. What are they waiting for?
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