Nothing is a guarantee, not even hamilton

Hamilton is not Fun Home. It is the best musical in well over a generation. I am guessing you haven't seen it. Although it is of course theoretically possible that an even better musical will materialize out of thin air (certainly there is none in the known universe), I'd say it is about as likely as an announcement of yet another revival of Annie with Chita Rivera in the title role.

I understand the resistance to prognostication winners so far out, but this is the exception.

"Hamilton is not Fun Home. It is the best musical in well over a generation. I am guessing you haven't seen it. Although it is of course theoretically possible that an even better musical will materialize out of thin air (certainly there is none in the known universe), I'd say it is about as likely as an announcement of yet another revival of Annie with Chita Rivera in the title role.
I understand the resistance to prognostication winners so far out, but this is the exception. "

None of this is really about the better musical! If it was, Fun Home would clearly win, but its not so clear right now. And Matilda would have won over Kinky Boots (even though i love KB). Im just saying, what if School of Rock or Waitress or American Psycho or Dear Evan Hansen steals Hamiltons steam because people enjoy them more. And possibly make more money than Hamilton.

I haven't seen Hamilton, so obviously I can't judge this. But I have to say I've been wondering about this. It does look to me like Fun Home lost a lot of its steam since they transferred to Broadway. They had all this hype last season, many people already saw it off-Broadway and loved it, but it appears to me that might have actually hurt them because it all happened too early in terms of the Tonys (they are still doing great at the BO, certainly!). And I did wonder if something similar could happen to Hamilton as well. Plus I was under the impression that at least part of the Hamilton hype was due to the fact that nobody could get tickets in the small venue, so we'll have to see how that plays out in a big Broadway house. But if it's a good as people say, it'll probably still be a hot ticket, much like BoM in the beginning of its run.

Anyway, I wouldn't consider it as a "sure to win everything next year" bet at this point, you never know what happens...

The difference between Fun Home loosing some steam (I don't necessarily agree with this, just bouncing off your point) and Hamilton loosing steam is that Fun Home waited to open in April, where Hamilton is opening in August and will have nearly an entire year to keep their steam going. I can't decide if that will help or hurt them, but it seems to me there is some surefire competition for Fun Home this year that no one saw coming when it announced its transfer last year. While I don't personally understand the hype, Hamilton is selling extremely well for their first few months out… but again, I don't know if that will hurt or help them at this point in time. Time will tell all. That's all I'm saying.

Hamilton is the only one on your list we have the slightest interest in.

For this season why are you discounting Something Rotten? D/L'd the album this morning and it is soooo amusing. Really what a Bway show SHOULD BE!

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 05:08 PM

Something Rotten was my favorite of the nominated bunch this year, but just looking at predictions, it seems to come down to either Fun Home or American in Paris, and I feel like AiP has the edge at the moment. We'll know Sunday night.

Unlike Fun Home, which has done an admirable job of building an audience notwithstanding the loss of at least some mojo over the long hiatus, Hamilton will be the hard-to-get ticket straight through to the Tonys, and none of the shows that have been mentioned as competition are in the same league. As I have traveled lately, it is the only show that people who don't even follow Broadway are asking about. The demographic for the show is amazingly broad, and unlike a show like American Psycho (or Book of Mormon), when things eventually settle down, it will be de rigeur for school groups for the foreseeable future. As I said earlier, it is the best show in ages. It would have beat Producers, Book of Mormon etc etc. It is both incredible fun and accessible and also intellectually significant: a show that appeals to both adults and young adults and that doesn't insult the intelligence of either.

Well stated, HogansHero!

Pinto, why are you surprised? It's logical. Hamilton will win a year from now absent your violent takeover of the Tony awards. And I don't think you are very violent. Not in those heels anyway.

to clarify, i have seen the show, and its mind blowingly wonderful, but EVERY single thread about a new show on the board someone pops in and goes "why bother when hamilton is coming in". Im just saying we were all doing the same thing with Fun Home last year and now it doesn't seem to be as much of a sure thing.