Posted: 4/14/15 at 9:43am
I didn't see a thread for this, so I figured I'd start one. Who has a chance this year? My guesses:
You Can't Take it With You
Skylight
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
It's Only a Play (if there's a fifth)
I feel like the only possible spoiler would be This is our youth. it seems like A Delicate Balance, Love Letters and The Real Thing would be out of it
Posted: 4/14/15 at 9:47am
I think this year's nominees will be:
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You
Posted: 4/14/15 at 9:47am
I haven't seen Skylight yet, but of the ones I HAVE seen, I'm definitely rooting for Elephant Man, by a pretty significant margin.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 10:13am
As a reminder: the eligible plays are:
A Delicate Balance
It's Only A Play
Love Letters
Skylight
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
The Real Thing
This Is Our Youth
You Cant Take It With You
As there are nine shows, a fifth nomineee is possible.
I think Skylight, The Elephant Man and You Can't Take It With You were the best reviewed plays. The fourth nominee is....difficult to anticipate.
Updated On: 4/14/15 at 10:13 AM
Posted: 4/14/15 at 10:17am
The fourth nominee will either be It's Only a Play or The Heidi Chronicles.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 10:25am
Though I personally didn't care for Heidi Chronicles, I'm betting that will be the other nominee.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 10:38am
I wouldn't discount It's Only a Play. Sometimes a financially lucrative show can sneak in even if it didn't receive the strongest reviews.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 12:03pm
"I wouldn't discount It's Only a Play. Sometimes a financially lucrative show can sneak in even if it didn't receive the strongest reviews."
Not usually the case with limited run revivals, though. I'd expect Heidi to get in over It's Only a Play, though both could certainly be nominated if three or fewer votes from the nominating committee separate them. You Can't Take It With You, Skylight, and Elephant Man are practically locks. And while I LOVED Elephant Man (and admittedly haven't seen Skylight yet), I'd anticipate Skylight will take the award based on the glowing reviews and the fact that it will still be open at Tony time. Let's all recall that last year both the gloriously reviewed but closed Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night were beaten by a less exciting Raisin in the Sun because it was still open.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 12:23pm
I'm willing to bet:
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
It's Only a Play
Skylight
Posted: 4/14/15 at 12:24pm
If HEIDI received unanimously great reviews, I would call it a lock. But despite some really positive notices (like Isherwood's), the feedback was mixed, and to say that it's not performing well at the box office is an understatement. IT'S ONLY A PLAY has made a pile and will be playing into June; whether they'd admit it or not, I imagine many of the nominators also had more fun seeing it.
I think it will be a photo finish between SKYLIGHT and THE ELEPHANT MAN. What neither THE GLASS MENAGERIE nor TWELFTH NIGHT had was a genuine movie star.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 12:25pm
"I'm willing to bet:
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
It's Only a Play
Skylight
"
I don't anticipate any scenario in which YOU CAN'T TAKE IT WITH YOU isn't remembered.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 12:39pm
Let's all recall that last year both the gloriously reviewed but closed Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night were beaten by a less exciting Raisin in the Sun because it was still open.
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf won Best Revival of a Play two years ago, and that production closed about three months prior to the Tonys.
Updated On: 4/14/15 at 12:39 PM
Posted: 4/14/15 at 1:07pm
That VIRGINIA WOOLF only had one still-running competitor, THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL, which was very easily honored by voting for Cecily Tyson instead of Play Revival.
SKYLIGHT both got better reviews than BOUNTIFUL and its' actors have stiffer competition. Not that Tyson didn't have stiff competition, but she had a clear sentimental vote.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 1:12pm
Exactly what I was going to say. Virginia Woolf didn't have a lot of competition. Bountiful was given good reviews for the acting, but the production was not so positively reviewed. Raisin received positive reviews, but just not as glowing as those that Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night got.
"I think it will be a photo finish between SKYLIGHT and THE ELEPHANT MAN. What neither THE GLASS MENAGERIE nor TWELFTH NIGHT had was a genuine movie star."
That has nothing to do with Tony voters picking the best PRODUCTION. Cherry Jones (though admittedly not a movie star) got some of the best reviews of her already glorious career. Time is a much bigger indicator than star power when it comes to awards.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 1:26pm
"That has nothing to do with Tony voters picking the best PRODUCTION. Cherry Jones (though admittedly not a movie star) got some of the best reviews of her already glorious career. Time is a much bigger indicator than star power when it comes to awards."
It is absolutely a factor. It's one factor. Time, and money, and quality are factors, as well.
Posted: 4/14/15 at 1:56pm
Name me a revival of a play starring someone with Hollywood recognition that won the Tony after it had closed. That's right, you can't. And that's because, other than Virginia Woolf two years ago, the only time a closed production has won the Tony for Best Revival was when Henry IV won in 2004 (strangely enough, beating that production of Raisin in the Sun which was still open and starring Sean Combs.) Clearly star power didn't help there.
Updated On: 4/14/15 at 01:56 PM
Posted: 4/14/15 at 3:47pm
Seem like definites to me: all got terrific reviews.
Skylight
You Can't Take it With You
The Elephant Man
Betting man:
its Only a Play...actually got decent reviews, the audiences I saw it with twice laughed their heads off the entire night, is a hit
I don't see Heide Chronicles getting it. It got mediocre reviews and is barely hanging on
