Rent Box Office-The Betting Shop is Open!

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:05pm

I predict Rent will finish 5th at the box office with about 15 million in ticket sales.

1. Harry Potter
2. Just Friends
3. Walk the Line
4. Yours, Mine and Ours
5. Rent

Of course, for the sake of many more future movie musicals, I hope I'm dead wrong and it exceeds my expectaions but I'm not holding my breath.
Anybody else want to make a fearless prediction?

[EverythingIsRENT]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:08pm

i'll be willing to go up to $20 mil...with a solid second place.

[MUNKY]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:19pm

Are we talking about opening weekend (Today until Sunday)? 25 millions.

[Kelsey]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:25pm

I really doubt that "Just Friends" is going to open at 2nd.

[MUNKY]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:27pm

Just Friends got good reviews. I'm laughing at Yours Mine And Ours is placed before RENT.

[katygrace84]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:40pm

I was going to say 3rd behind Harry Potter and walk the Line but after reading about sold-out viewings here I'm going to say that it just might beat out the Man in Black biopic.

My prediction? $25-$30 Mill and 2nd place behind Potter.

[dramaparoxysm23]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 2:45pm

First ~ Harry Potter
Second ~ Walk the Line
Third ~ RENT

I'm terrible at this, but I'm guessing about 27 mil?

[Kelsey]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 3:51pm

It's so incredibly difficult to predict, because you honestly can't say what movies the rest of the country are going to want to see over the extended weekend.

And, in all actuality, reviews have usually nothing to do with how well a movie performs at the box office.

I guess all we can say is that Harry Potter is guaranteed to be #1 again. Everything else is up in the air.

[today4u:proofpositiv]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 4:00pm

I just got back from seeing RENT and I absolutely loved it. That being said, there were only 10 other people in the theatre, and some of them looked like they really didnt want to be there. I hope the movie does well, but I honestly don't think it will be in the top 5.

Posted: 11/23/05 at 4:27pm

OK, so Rent is NOT going to beat Harry Potter. I think we're all agreed on that.

Just Friends is the number one requested movie this weekend on Moviefone.com and Fandango.com. It's shorter than Rent which = more showings for each theater and it's playing on more screens. It's also the one movie people in my office building have been talking about wanting to see this weekend, probably because its marketing is being targeted at both men and women.

As for Yours, Mine and Ours, I hope it doesn't beat Rent either. But it's shorter and playing on more screens than Rent. Plus, it could get the carryover family audience from those who already saw Potter and need a break from holiday shopping
Updated On: 11/23/05 at 04:27 PM

[joniray]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 4:59pm

Actually, earlier today Rent was at #5 in popularity at Moviefone, but I just checked again and it's now at #2. It also has been #2 on Moviefone for the past week before this morning (yes, I'm obsessed enough to have checked every day) which leads me to believe that it has a lot of tickets that were presold before today. I looked on Fandango but I didn't see where you can see what movies are currently selling the best at that site.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 5:23pm

Rent will open with a profit of 15-25 million. If more, I'll be shocked. And happy.

[my2cents]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 6:48pm

Here is a similar thread,discusiing box office predictions. I posted what box office mojo was predicting just for fri- sun.

https://forum.broadwayworld.com/readmessage.cfm?thread=874209#1609673

[jasonf]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 6:56pm

Just got back from it, 3:30 showing - the theater was PACKED - may have even been sold out (I was there early so got prime seats).

Freaking loved it!

Though I do have a few quibbles which I'm sure I'll post elsewhere...

Anyway - I predict third place, though you never know - more theaters like where I was, and it could even make second. I can't even DREAM it would beat HP...

Updated On: 11/23/05 at 06:56 PM

[Fan2]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 7:26pm

Movie predictions for the weekend:

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

THIS WEEKEND The Thanksgiving holiday frame will see a crowded table as six films open or expand into national release, although none has a shot at dethroning the current box office wizard. Leading the way in a fight for the leftovers are Paramount's new family comedy Yours, Mine, & Ours and Sony's musical Rent. Also debuting are the comedy Just Friends, the caper flick The Ice Harvest, and the music drama In the Mix all targeting specific audiences. Plus the period romance Pride & Prejudice widens across the country. The new entries will be fighting each other fiercely for screens, publicity, and audience attention. Coming off of a record-breaking opening weekend, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire has no plans to vacate the top spot and could manage a weekend tally more than all the new films combined.

Families who like their entertainment super-sized have the new comedy Yours, Mine & Ours opening over the long holiday weekend bringing together Dennis Quaid and Rene Russo who combine their kids to make an oversized clan with 18 children. Directed by Raja Gosnell (Scooby Doo, Home Alone 3), the PG-rated film hopes to connect with parents and younger children who may have already seen Harry Potter, or just find the new wizard flick a bit too creepy. Yours is trying to tap into the same formula that helped propel Cheaper by the Dozen to $138.6M two years ago and slotted itself a month ahead of the Steve Martin hit's sequel. But Quaid is no Martin. Still, last year's Thanksgiving weekend proved that the holiday frame can expand enormously to fit several family pics as the top five was completely dominated by family friendly G and PG pics. Yours does not offer too much comedy and the premise seems derivative. But with 3,200 theaters and a sizable push aimed at a lucrative segment of the overall moviegoing public, a decent debut is likely. Yours, Mine & Ours might find itself with around $14M this weekend and about $18M over the Wednesday-to-Sunday span.

Sony aims for Chicago-style success with its own Broadway-to-big screen adaptation Rent. Potter alum Chris Columbus directs the PG-13 film which stars Rosario Dawson, Taye Diggs, and numerous members of the original cast of the stage version. The story about a group of young adults dealing with AIDS, homelessness, and other societal problems has been generating the best reviews of any film opening over the turkey frame. Just like in the theatre world, critical support will be crucial to long-term strength and so far Rent has seen smooth sailing. Those who love musicals and urban stories will make up the core crowd. The film should certainly skew more female and will have to compete with Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line and Keira Knightley in Pride & Prejudice. Sony's promotional push has been heavy as the studio has tried unorthodox techniques to grab attention for an unorthodox film. A solid opening should result as those who have seen the musical make up a bulit-in audience that the film can now tap into. But more patrons are likely to join the party in later weeks as buzz spreads so legs could be durable. Singing its way into 2,433 stages, Rent may open to about $12M and around $16M over five days.

Like so many young men before him, Ryan Reynolds finds himself in the friend zone with the girl of his dreams in the new comedy Just Friends. The PG-13 pic co-stars Amy Smart, Anna Faris, and Chris Klein and is gunning for the teen and young adult audience. New Line is shamelessly going after the same audience that drove Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin to a combined $317M this year with quotes in its ads from no-name critics conveniently making the comparisons. With a milder rating, the film loses the raunchiness that helped to make those daring pictures become big hits in the first place. Reynolds boasts only so much pull at the turnstiles, but the foursome combo could be enough to spark interest with high school and college kids. Television spots are not very funny so Just Friends will have to work extra hard to convince ticket buyers that they will be in for laughs. Comedy has had the golden touch at the box office this year and the marketplace is lacking in that department right now which could help Ryan and his pals. Opening in 2,505 theaters, Just Friends might laugh up about $9M over the weekend and approximately $12.5M during the five-day span.

John Cusack and Billy Bob Thornton play a pair of crooks trying to make off with $2 million on Christmas Eve in the comedic caper pic The Ice Harvest. Directed by Harold Ramis, the R-rated film co-stars Randy Quaid, Oliver Platt, and Connie Nielsen and is aimed squarely at mature adult audiences. Skewing older than the other holiday offerings will keep Harvest from facing too much direct competition, however the mild starpower and the generic premise will limit its potential. Reviews will matter and critics have been mixed on the pic. Moviegoers who listen to what reviewers have to say may spend the holiday frame with the other dish Focus is offering nationwide this weekend - Pride & Prejudice. Cusack and Thornton do see reasonably good openings for their films so the hope is that each will pull in his own crowd adding up to a respectable showing. The Ice Harvest opened Wednesday in 1,431 theaters and widens to 1,550 locations on Friday. Over three days, it could debut to $6M while the five-day figure may reach $8.5M.

As if multiplexes don't already have enough music stars on screen, Usher dances into theaters with his latest film In the Mix playing a man who gets involved with a mafia princess. The PG-13 film is aimed at the multi-platinum singer's legions of fans, especially young females, and marks the first film for the actor-singer since going from a star to a megastar in the music business. The Lions Gate film will have a tough task ahead of it. Rent will pull in urban youth, 50 Cent's Get Rich or Die Tryin' is still pulling in young adults, and Harry Potter is bringing in everybody. Usher fans might end up holding onto their dollars for the DVD since the film is not generating much buzz. Jumping into 1,608 theaters, In the Mix might open with about $5M for the weekend and $7M over five days.

With ease, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire plans to spend its turkey frame right where it was last weekend - on top of the box office feast. With more fans coming out in the early days, second weekend declines have gradually gotten larger for the wizard series. In 2001, the Thanksgiving holiday helped to hold Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone to a 36% drop. The following year, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets did not have a holiday to assist the sophomore frame but instead faced the launch of the James Bond actioner Die Another Day so the drop amounted to 52%. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban bowed in June of 2004 and its second weekend fall was a hefty 63%.

Goblet falls into the same company as Sorcerer due to the holiday this weekend. As a sequel, it shouldn't match the nice hold the first Hogwarts film had, but at the same time, it should keep its decline below 50%. Monday saw a healthy $8.1M in ticket sales for Goblet putting the four-day cume at a towering $110.4M. A second weekend fall of around 45% could be in order which would give the fourth film in the series a three-day tally of about $56M boosting the ten-day cume to a staggering $201M.

Fox scored a hit last weekend with the stronger-than-expected bow for Walk the Line. With so many kid-oriented films in the marketplace and a collection of new films not generating too much excitement, adult audiences with extra leisure time might make a date with Johnny and June Cash over the holidays giving the biopic a solid hold. A 25% drop to around $16.5M would give Walk the Line roughly $50M in ten days.

Following two weeks of impressive sales in limited release, the Focus period piece Pride & Prejudice expands nationally from 221 to 1,182 theaters on Wednesday and 1,299 locations by Friday. Strong reviews and good word-of-mouth will make the British film a contender among high brow audiences and adult women. Both Walk the Line and Rent will give it stiff competition, but the distributor is hoping that the long weekend will expand the marketplace allowing the target audience to find time for more than one film. Pride & Prejudice might see about $7M this weekend lifting its total to $14M.

[Marlene]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 8:09pm

I've advocated that if you still haven't watch HP, you should get a ticket to RENT, watch it, and then proceed in sneaking into HP.

[Kevo711]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 9:51pm

I went to the first showing of RENT at a local theatre today and was one of a total five people in the theatre... and 2 more of the five people were with me! I was disappointed that no one was there but it was kinda nice!

[DAME]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 9:54pm

I predict 2 nd place with about 25 mil take in. And then a drop to number 5 by next weekend and then hanging around the bottom of the top ten till mid December.

[loridunn]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 10:02pm

#1 - Harry Potter (of course)
#2 - Just Friends
#3 - RENT - 20 mil.

But I really hope for #2

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 10:35pm

I went to a matinee, which was sold out.

Then in another city, I went to a 7pm showing, it was sold out and workers had to come in and scoot people over to free up empty seats.

I left the 7pm showing, and there was a HUGE line to get in for the 10pm showing. I was going to see it a third time, but it was sold out.

It'll be very interesting to see how this does on a national scale.

[Yankgrl46]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 10:39pm

I just got back from a theater in New Jersey, the place was packed. Sold Out. This when the next movie theatre is only 2 miles away. Sure surprised the hell out of me.

[DAME]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 10:52pm

Good. Glad to hear.

[LariTheLoud]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 10:56pm

Yankgrl46 - Sounds familiar. Silly New Jersey and their closely-packed movie theaters.

[Yankgrl46]

Posted: 11/23/05 at 11:00pm

Gotta love New Jersey!

One thing I noticed was that before LVB, a couple in front of me walked out and never returned. When it was over though everyone cheered very loudly. Some major singing and chuckling (especially in "What You Own") was going on.

Posted: 11/25/05 at 5:12pm

Box Office Numbers through Thursday. Rent fell to #4.


1. HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 12.4 145.7
2. WALK THE LINE 4.6 34.8
3. YOURS, MINE & OURS 3.8 7.2
4. RENT 2.4 7.4
5. JUST FRIENDS 2.3 4.3
6. CHICKEN LITTLE 1.9 105.4