Rent Box Office-The Betting Shop is Open!- Page 3

[my2cents]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:36am

Can some one please show me where it is predicted that rent will do 20-25 this weekend. Cause every where that I read predictions for this weekend (and I read alot) they had it at 14-15 million. Only time I read in the 20's was from fans on boards. So if anyone has a link I'd be happy to read it, cause I love to read new stuff.

[MJohnson05]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:39am

my2cents, I think what you're reading is that RENT will most likely do 14-15 for the WEEKEND (i.e. Fri-Sun), whereas it will probably do 20-25 for the FIVE-DAY Weekend (this is a holiday after all, so Weds and Thurs count).

However, RENT will more likely do 14-16 for the 3-day WEEKEND, and 20-22 for the 5 days.

M

[my2cents]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:42am

Nope 5day total. Fan2 even posted one of the predictions on this thread. They all say 10-15 (that one says 12-16). ANd three days at 11.7 is well on the way to the predictions. I have not read in the 20's anywhere for the 5 day. Again open to reading the new information.

[MJohnson05]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:44am

go to boxofficemojo.com, it's usually the most reliable site. (because they re-adjust as soon as they get the new numbers in, as opposed to keeping older numbers up until the following tuesday).

M

[JenD512]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 1:00am

I'm not particularly sure why I care, it's not like any of this money shows up at my house, but...

According to boxofficemojo, it's up to (estimated) $11.4 million as of Friday. That's not bad, considering:

1) It's a musical.

2) I think we're all familiar with the subject matter.

3) It got medicore reviews.

3) It's not Harry Potter.

4) One of those days was a major holiday.

According to IMDB, who can't believed at all as far as news, but their box office updates are fairly reliable, the movie did "better than expected" on Wednesday.

It's a holiday weekend. The family stuff will do better, but I don't think anyone will be disappointed if it stays in the top 5.

And why do I feel like I'm back at work? I do this kind of study all day long.

[La_Becca]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 1:15am

According to IMDb, on Wednesday RENT (4.97 million) opened second to Harry Potter (14.12 million), beating out Your's, Mine, and Ours, Just Friends, and In the Mix.

Link: http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2005-11-25/#2

[twotrey]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 2:03am

But that's just Wednesday. It did open stronger than expected on Wednesday, but then it took a huge hit on Thursday (some sources say the biggest Wednesday-to-Thanksgiving drop in history), and while it did rebound (as did everything else) on Friday, the rate of recovery wasn't as strong--which is an indicator that perhaps it isn't crossing over beyond the faithful. Of course, the full weekend estimates aren't in yet, but based on the drop rate it isn't looking like word of mouth isn't doing its job, and it has to be disappointing to the studio--particularly the expense they went to marketing, plus all the publicists were all telling me how the reactions they saw at early screenings made them very excited (though now it's becoming more clear that reactions there were skewed due to a lot of die-hards in attendance).

[Fan2]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 10:17am

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9290

Black Friday is traditionally one of the strongest box office days of the year. Even with this year's struggles and two outright bombs among the new releases, 2005 was no exception.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

Earning $22.7 million Friday, the Harry Potter juggernaut continues to roll. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone was the other Potter movie to have its second weekend occur over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and Goblet of Fire is behaving oddly similar. The Sorcerer's Stone went on to a $57.5 million weekend in 2001, and I expect something similar from Goblet of Fire here. Don't sweat the decline; when dealing with numbers this big, it's inevitable.

Walk the Line

Walk the Line's $7.8 million Friday is virtually the same amount it earned on its opening night last Friday. This is fairly typical for the holiday weekend (last year's holiday winner, National Treasure, improved on its first day figure by almost $2 million). This is tempered by solid earnings over Wednesday and Thursday and then a weak Friday-Sunday multiplier. Still, look for $19 million for the weekend as it begins to establish itself as a very strong Oscar contender.

Yours, Mine and Ours

The film that is not the sequel to Cheaper By The Dozen (that actually comes out next month) took in a not-great, not-terrible $6.9 million Friday on top of the $7.2 million it earned on Wednesday and Thursday. Last year's family offering, Christmas with the Kranks, went on to a $21 million three-day weekend off a Friday figure of $8.8 million. Thanksgiving weekend means relatively crappy internal multipliers all around, so something around 2.4 would give Yours, Mine and Ours $16.5 million over three days and $23.7 since Wednesday.

Rent

The theatrical smash of the mid-'90s turned feature film earned $4.3 million Friday, but $7.4 million in its first two days of release. That's a pretty big sign that a lot of the original cast and recording fans went and saw it on its opening night, and does not bode well for the remainder of the weekend. Figure a bit under $10 million for the weekend and just over $17 million since Wednesday.

Just Friends

The Ryan Reynolds fat-suit comedy made $3.7 million Friday and $4.3 million on Thanksgiving Eve and Turkey Day proper. Non-holiday associated comedies are such an odd duck this time of year that there aren't too many proper comparisons, but this weekend isn't terribly kind to any particular kind of film. I'll give Just Friends around $8.5 million over the weekend and $12.8 in five days.

In the Mix

The Usher vehicle released in just 1,600 theaters earned a mere $1.7 million Friday. Things won't improve over the rest of the weekend so In the Mix should end up with about $4.2 million for the weekend and $5.9 million for five days.

The Ice Harvest

Also bombing this weekend is The Ice Harvest, with $1.4 million Friday. There's not much more to say about the dark comedy caper, other than it should earn $3.6 million in three days and $4.9 in five.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)

Projected Rank, Film, Estimated Gross
1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 56.9
2 Walk the Line 19.1
3 Yours, Mine and Ours 16.5
4 Chicken Little 13.6
5 Rent 9.9
6 Just Friends 8.5
7 Pride and Prejudice 7.0
8 Derailed 4.2
9 In the Mix 4.2
10 The Ice Harvest 3.6

[ProducersFan]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 10:20am

If Chicken Little beats Rent, I'm going to kill myself.

And I'm a Disney fan...

[Therese]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 11:06am

OT, but - I'm a Disney fan and I didn't like Chicken Little. Can't believe it could still be making that much money (except that Harry Potter really isn't for little kids, and they've got to see something over Thanksgiving). I'm still depressed that CL has made so much more money than the genuinely charming Wallace & Gromit.

[colleen_lee]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 11:53am

The movie has boosted sales of the soundtrack.

The full movie soundtrack is at #2 on itunes, while the highlights of sountrack is sitting at #7 on itunes.

The soundtrack is currently sitting at #6 on amazon.com

Not too shabby.

[Whiteboy Spice]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:05pm

To any of those folks who follow box office trends more closely than I tend to do:

What do you make of the fact that Rent is now #1 on the "most-requested" movies on Moviefone? Does that bespeak any crossover interest/good word of mouth?

It's #2 on boxofficemojo.com as well.

And what about the fact that it has a B+ on its yahoomovies page, from over 5000 user ratings? That's the same grade as Harry Potter and Walk the Line.

It's at 81% from user ratings on rottentomatoes. And the reviews are being written by people who saw the musical and people who didn't.

These anecdotal pieces show me that there is at least the possibility of the film crossing over to some degree. But is it too anecdotal?

Believe me, we're all confused by the strange Thanksgiving drop after such a phenomenal opening night. My guess is that most families going to the movies as a unit on Thanksgiving wanted something lighter than Rent -- hence the big jump for Yours Mine & Ours, for instance.

Anyway, we're all curious to see how last night and today are. I could be wrong, but as young people start making their own plans again, it seems possible that Rent might not dip as low as some of the other films through the rest of the weekend.

It's all fascinating and unexpected, though.

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:09pm

I know nothing about this stuff, so can someone tell me when the box office reports or whatever they are come out? Like, the top ___ movies of the weekend, etc?

I think that the MoviePhone thing might mean that those are people purchasing tickets online -- perhaps meaning that people are doing so because they're afraid it'll sell out of they wait? I might be wrong. :-/

[Fantabulous428]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:19pm

I think the most requested thing on moviefone means that people have either purchased tickets via moviefone or have maybe "tagged" rent - kind of like a wishlist thing to hold on to it. but then again, I know nothing about this.

[spiderdj82]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:23pm

Some time this afternoon, keep a look out on yahoo movies because they always post the listing of the top 10 movies of the weekend and how much they made.

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:23pm

Sooooooooooooooon.

[Mikey187]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:35pm

You people have NO lives at all. WHO CARES what your predictions are! Just wait until they come out and enjoy your time before then!
MIKEY

[Fan2]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:35pm

Also:

www.boxofficemojo.com

www.boxofficeprophets.com (which already gave their "Friday analysis).

Boxofficemojo.com does the weekend "estimates" Sunday afternoon and the "actuals" on Monday. Boxofficeprophets.com does its "weekend wrapup" either Sunday or Monday, and does a "Monday Morning Quarterback" on Monday, where different pundits from the site analyse and break down the numbers and discuss how they thought the movies did, whether they will have "legs", if the studio should be happy, etc. etc.

[ljay889]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:38pm

Maybe some of you don't know. But IMDB posts the official box office numbers Sunday late afternoon/evening.

I always check IMDB.

[YankeesFan175]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:38pm

haha, em!

im kinda late finding this thread, but the post a couple pages back that showed the movies rank and the number of theaters....RENT was only showing in 2000 theaters, the others were in the 3000s. for a movie to still be in 5th place when its playing in a smaller number of theaters is still very good. i cant help but think it would do so much better if it were playing in more theaters.

[Therese]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:38pm

Anthony, I think you are right on a couple of points: People spend a lot of multi-generational-family-time over Thanksgiving weekend, and I think that helps movies like Yours Mine & Ours - which may not have been anyone's first choice, but it was the one thing that was OK for everyone from the 5-year-olds to grandma. I think you're right that young people making their own plans are the key for Rent.

I'm curious to see how Rent holds up next weekend, because I do believe that word of mouth is going to be good for it. How many people have been out of town/away from home this weekend? Think of the college students going back to school on Monday and talking to friends/getting them to go (or go back) to the movie. I could see this having "legs" once the weirdness of Thanksgiving weekend settles back to normal.

[Marlene]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:43pm

What's up with RENT playing in so few theaters. I found it really odd that it's not playing in the Loews in Times Sq, atleast its not listed. My little local ghetto movie theater has it...so all is good.

[greenegirl87]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:43pm

So this is completely just speculation, but maybe the reason its the most requested but not completely up there yet is because its not playing in enough places or with enough showtimes? i dont know anything about numbers or anythign either, or for that matter how convenient Rent is to most people, but I do know for out of the 15 or so theatres in my area, only 5 or 6 are playing it, so it may be difficult to get to in areas with fewer theatres.

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:44pm

Marlene, does the AMC right across the street (other side of 42nd) have it?

[Marlene]

Posted: 11/27/05 at 12:47pm

Yes, AMC has it. But I really wanted to get rid of some of giftcards to Loews. I keep getting them to Loews, but half the time I wind up in AMC. Oh well...if I see it enough times, maybe my little ghetto movie theater will give me their RENT movie poster when they are done with it. Holler for $5.00 matinees! I guess I'll be watching RENT after class at Lincoln Sq Saturday morning...like 3 times.
Updated On: 11/27/05 at 12:47 PM