Riedel is known for his speculations, some which turn out to be true and some that do not. Since insider sources say that a RUG producer is looking at theaters to hold EVITA and the Neil Simon is one of them, he is simply making an assumption that the show "may" close soon.
Read more closely, however. Riedel states that EVITA is being conditioned for a Fall 2007, more than a year away. It is likely that HAIRSPRAY could close or move theaters during that time, especially since the movie would have just been released.
In my personal opinion, I doubt the show will close or move theaters. There are several other theaters that will be vacant over the course of the next year that would serve to be excellent houses for EVITA.
As for the issue regarding Menzel, people are referring to when she was given an opportunity to audition for the producers for the show in London. She turned down the audition, so it is valid to state that she might have not gotten the role to begin with.
It is possible that the producers may want to offer the chance for her to audition if the show does indeed come to Broadway, especially since she is a member of Actors' Equity. In addition, she is much more well known than Rogers, however to the general public (which will make up the majority of the audience of the show), they probably could care less who is in the role.
"I don't think Hairspray will move from The Neil Simon, with 1428 seats, and all the way up there on 52nd St.
Fall of 2007 is still some time off, and The Palace is available. I could picture a short run for either Mame or Hello Dolly, and then...
Or maybe The Broadway Theatre, Evita's first home. The Color Purple is doing great there now, but for how much longer?
Anyway, I'm very exited about this production of Evita coming to NY. The origional was my 2nd Bway musical, and I've been hooked ever since!"
MAME is not headed for Broadway and there was a HELLO, DOLLY! revival in the mid-90s already which still starred Carol Channing. I doubt either of these shows will return to Broadway, especially for a limited run at a theatre like the Palace.
THE COLOR PURPLE is not going anywhere for a while.
"I'm just a musical prostitute, my dear." ~ Freddie Mercury