@Mezzo, a few passing reactions, to you and others
1. There is hardly ever a correlation between physical difficulty of a job and pay. The human who comes after everyone goes home and scrubs the restrooms makes far less than Tier 7. The hard truth is that Broadway is what people aspire to because it is the pinnacle. And the ensemble member on Broadway makes many times less than 44% of what the star(s) of their shows makes. This is not unique to actors. Top show business agents start in the mail room. Anyone who starts a career in the theatre expecting to make great money without great (and often futile) effort needs to find another line of work. Sorry. If you want to make a lot of money, look into a career as a quant where Wall Street will pay you almost a half million out of the gate.
2. Bigger houses do not necessarily translate into better returns. Sometimes higher demand far surpasses greater supply. Producing 101.
3. These AEA members for whom everyone is so eager to speak voted for the current contract. Maybe they were foolish or maybe they understood economics better. A tier 7 tour is STILL much better than a non-union tour (especially under this contracts softer provisions) and again the brutal truth is that that is where these "cheap" tiers would be headed. Is there any show here being discussed as terrific successes that does not also have a much higher paying tour for the A-list cities that have long term engagements?
@Dan94, I acknowledged I did not have the data. I have no interest in collecting it. I (obviously) found this thread of some interest so I read it hoping to absorb some knowledge. That has been lacking. If I am admonishing anything, it is to encourage people, most of whom seem quite inexperienced about this subject, to spend as much time studying as they do opining. In the real world, making a point without the means to back it up is how things end up being dismissed. I am all for strong advocates among AEA members for the contract provisions that they feel will be better, and for the execution of contracts in a way that fulfills the intent. That demands something more than hyperbole and empty angst.
@mitchurn, re: "Equity has been going in that direction for years. No protections, all capitulations!" Every contract and every elected official is the choice of the members. If it has been going in the wrong direction, the blame goes to those who voted (or failed to). If we have learned only one thing in the last several months is that we have become habituated to being our own worst enemy. How do you overcome that: hard core knowledge.