The Sweeney Todd Box Office Tracking thread — Page 9

I can't imagine that there are many "Sondheads" (love that term, btw) in Tyler, TX, yet when I saw it there yesterday there were MANY reactions throughout the movie (but no hooping and hollering).

"Are you a seer? It definitely will not be a loss for the studio? I think even the studio knows at this point it will be a loss - so bloody what?"

It is nearly impossible, all things considered, for this film to have not to turn a profit by the time it reaches DVD. It will almost certainly make over $100 million worldwide.

I care because it's interesting to me. Not just this film, but any film. Some people like football. A growing number of people are interested by box office. Just look over on the box office mojo forums.

It's also important for this or any film to do well if you want to see more like it.

This is an analysis by Len Klady, an old pro without any particular bias:

National Treasure: Book of Secrets maintained top spot in the last weekend of 2007 with an estimated $35.8 million. The frame experienced double digit expansion with more than a few surprises as several new titles entered the fray in wide and limited release. Alvin, Will Smith and, unexpectedly, Juno contributed mightily to a positive tilt in weekend movie going.

A trio of freshmen titles debuted Christmas Day with varying results. Alien vs. Predator - Requiem offered a soupcon of counter-programming and ranked sixth overall for the weekend with an OK $9.9 million while the kid friendly The Water Horse generated a disappointing $9.1 million. The targeted-wide release of the uplifting drama The Great Debaters stepped out with an encouraging $6 million.

The situation was equally torrid among limited openers hoping to qualify for Oscars and such and strategically roll out in 2008. The star driven The Bucket List rang up close to a $20,000 theater average at 16 venues while the highly touted There Will Be Blood grossed a staggering $182,600 from two screens. A pair of unusual imports also had potent bows. The adult animated Persepolis (France's Oscar submission) was impressive with an $85,100 box office in seven situations and the chiller The Orphanage (the top grosser in Spain this year) did $232,000 in a first foray at 19 sites.

Overall weekend revenues topped $183 million to best Christmas weekend by 15% and better the 2006 tally by 14%. With just a day left in the year initial estimates peg 2007 to show an improvement somewhere between 5% and 6%. Admissions appear to be perhaps 1% improved but could well be flat with 2006 owing to considerable growth for high ticket large format items that include such recent films as I Am Legend and Beowulf.

The closing days of the year might best be dubbed as to have and have not. The plus side certainly embraces Alvin and the Chipmunks which had been viewed as commercially challenged but is now expected to push close to $200 million domestically. And despite a commercial rally, the high profile Charlie Wilson's War's commercial verdict is likely to be determined by international response.

The flip side has one unequivocal casualty in Walk Hard and a likely major write off with Sweeney Todd. The latter film despite critical support hasn't been able to overcome public resistance to a musical that tilts toward Grand Guignol extremes in grisly blood letting.

The session saw such features as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Kite Runner and Atonement holding up well in niche exposure. In a year where few prestige entries have been able to strategize platforms to the end, caution rather than boldness has set in and one can expect more of the same with this week's newcomers.

One notable exception is Juno that added 693 playdates to bring it to 998 theaters this weekend and maintain a very sturdy $10,000 plus engagement average. The film's initial surge boils down a sleight-of-hand in addressing teen pregnancy with candor and humor that has appeal to both sophisticated and blue collar audiences. It could well emerge as an even bigger success than Little Miss Sunshine.
- Leonard Klady

Juno is a big success, it's been tracking well for months, people have been wanting to see it for a long time. obviously, Alvin in the Chipmunks is a commercial success beyond anything it deserves or anyone saw coming. But that doesn't affect Sweeney Todd. I don't understand why people see a smaller number and automatically assume it's a flop. Dreamworks and WB knew what they were getting into. It's an "awards" film, and they couldn't have expected a huge opening. If they did, then they would've opened it wide. As it is, they are getting nearly as many people in each theater it's playing in as are seeing the current blockbusters in that theater.

Right now, the story is this: it opened so-so and held extremely well throughout the holidays. It still has not expanded into a major wide release.

There is no clear bottom line, but saying that it will be a loss for the studio is absurd at this rate. There is very little chance that, worldwide, this film will not gross enough for the studio to pay for its pretty small budget and its advertising.

Remember, the studio is getting a larger cut of this particular film's gross than usual (which is why that one small theater chain isn't carrying it).

"Estimates." Keep trying, old stick.

I woudln't say its doing terrible... its certainly doing better than some people on here predicted.

"Alvin in the Chipmunks"

Is this a sexual thing?

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Thanks. I hope he realzies that studios actually tend to under-state estimates on purpose to make the final numbers look better...

This is from Gold Derby, concerning the Best Actress race:

""Sweeney Todd" continues to be a curious wild card, which means Helena Bonham Carter does, too. Ten days after opening, it's still pulling in more than $2 million per day despite being a bizarre, R-rated musical that invites its audience to cheer on cannibalism and a razor-wielding murderer. It's not catching on as a wild hit, but that may not matter if it continues to hold on in theaters, picking up repeat viewers and word-of-mouth late-comers. Then it'll still be considered a success, "Sweeney" will remain in the best-pic race and Carter will benefit."

Sweeney Todd was finally made into a film. A truly WONDERFUL film. No matter how badly it does, nothing will ever take that away. True, I'd love Burton and cast to recieve the accolades and box office they deserve for so lovingly rendering the stage piece into such an outstanding film. The only thing the box office takes away are:

The movie versions of "Nine" and "Follies". Perhaps a "Les Miz". I know we'll probably eventually have "Wicked" and other tween films, but the risky, dramatic movie musical is dead for awhile.

Now, I don't know if "Nine and "Follies" have been put in turn around as yet, but I'm pretty sure their creators will be soon told that they're over...

"I know how it works. Estimates are estimates and are most certainly not always nearly exact. Which is why there was one estimate on the Friday it opened (for the three-day weekend), and another revised estimate when the film took a 25% drop in its second day, which NO ONE was predicting."

Those couldn't have been official studio estimates. They never project more than one day. Those were probably from Fantasy Mogul, they conjur up all kinds of numbers.

I'm equally baffled. I mean, it's obviously not doing spectacular, runaway business, but I never thought I'd be sitting through yet another discussion on the various levels and definitions of success.

This isn't a situation like The Producers, where people were dilusionally thinking it was doing better than it was, or even Phantom, where people were arguing whether it was a success or not when the film was pulling in only around $1 million every day over the holidays. The Phantom film ended up doing pretty darn decent worldwide in the end, and it can't really be argued that it was a flop.

So I'm confused why there seems to be just as much debate about Sweeney, which is doing significantly better numbers so far domestically and has a much smaller budget.

Updated On: 1/2/08 at 03:11 PM

Phantom had made just over $16 million at the end of New Years, with about the same amount of time in release, with much lower per-site averages than Sweeney is currently racking up (even though it was in fewer theaters than Sweeney is now). Phantom also never really went wide. It's final theater count was barely more than Sweeney has now. Now, I don't think that Sweeney expanding will bring much of an increase in business, just help to keep it steady. Of course, it should've opened wide to begin with...

The official budgets for Phantom and Sweeney were $70 million and $50 million, respectively. Like you said, though, there was probably over-run on each.

Updated On: 1/2/08 at 03:35 PM

Like every other film, Sweeney was hurt severely on Wednesday when the holiday season ended for most people. It managed to rake in another $1.3 million.