The Tony Eligibility and Category Placement Thread (FINAL RULINGS)

All the rulings, in one place.

BEST MUSICAL (10)
The Addams Family
All About Me
American Idiot
Come Fly Away
Burn the Floor
Everyday Rapture
Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet
Sondheim on Sondheim

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL (6)
A Little Night Music
Bye Bye Birdie
Finian's Rainbow
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime

BEST PLAY (11)
A Behanding in Spokane
Enron
In the Next Room or The Vibrator Play
Looped
Next Fall
Race
Red
A Steady Rain
Superior Donuts
Time Stands Still
Wishful Drinking

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY (10)
A View from the Bridge
After Miss Julie
Collected Stories
Fences
Hamlet
Lend Me a Tenor
The Miracle Worker
Oleanna
Present Laughter
The Royal Family

TONY-ELIGIBLE FOR PERFORMANCES ONLY
Irving Berlin's White Christmas

TONY-INELIGIBLE
Brighton Beach Memoirs



LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL (16)
The Addams Family: Nathan Lane
A Little Night Music: Alexander Hanson
All About Me: Michael Feinstein, Dame Edna (Barry Humphries)
American Idiot: John Gallagher, Jr.
Come Fly Away: no one
Burn the Floor: no one
Bye Bye Birdie: John Stamos
Everyday Rapture: no one
Fela!: Sahr Ngaujah
Finian's Rainbow: Cheyenne Jackson, Jim Norton
La Cage Aux Folles: Kelsey Grammer, Douglas Hodge
Memphis: Chad Kimball
Million Dollar Quartet: no one
Promises, Promises: Sean Hayes
Ragtime: Quentin Earl Darrington, Robert Petkoff
Sondheim on Sondheim: no one
White Christmas: James Clow

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL (9)
The Addams Family: Bebe Neuwirth
A Little Night Music: Catherine Zeta-Jones
All About Me: no one
American Idiot: no one
Come Fly Away: no one
Burn the Floor: no one
Bye Bye Birdie: Gina Gershon
Everyday Rapture: Sherie Rene Scott
Fela!: no one
Finian's Rainbow: Kate Baldwin
La Cage Aux Folles: no one
Memphis: Montego Glover
Million Dollar Quartet: no one
Promises, Promises: Kristin Chenoweth
Ragtime: Christiane Noll
Sondheim on Sondheim: no one
White Christmas: Melissa Errico

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY (17)
A Behanding in Spokane: Christopher Walken
A View from the Bridge: Liev Schreiber
After Miss Julie: Jonny Lee Miller
Collected Stories: no one
Enron: Norbert Leo Butz
Fences: Denzel Washington
Hamlet: Jude Law
In the Next Room: Michael Cerveris
Lend Me a Tenor: Justin Bartha, Tony Shalhoub
Looped: no one
The Miracle Worker: no one
Next Fall: Patrick Breen
Oleanna: Bill Pullman
Present Laughter: Victor Garber
Race: James Spader
Red: Alfred Molina
The Royal Family: no one
Superior Donuts: Michael McKean
A Steady Rain: Daniel Craig, Hugh Jackman
Time Stands Still: no one
Wishful Drinking: no one

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY (11)
A Behanding in Spokane: no one
A View from the Bridge: no one
After Miss Julie: Sienna Miller
Collected Stories: Linda Lavin
Enron: no one
Fences: Viola Davis
Hamlet: no one
In the Next Room: Laura Benanti
Lend Me a Tenor: no one
Looped: Valerie Harper
The Miracle Worker: Abigail Breslin, Alison Pill
Next Fall: no one
Oleanna: Julia Stiles
Present Laughter: no one
Race: no one
Red: no one
The Royal Family: Jan Maxwell
Superior Donuts: no one
A Steady Rain: no one
Time Stands Still: Laura Linney
Wishful Drinking: Carrie Fisher

Note: The following above-the-title performers were moved to featured: Bill Irwin in Bye Bye Birdie (12/10); Marin Ireland in After Miss Julie (12/10); David Alan Grier, Richard Thomas, and Kerry Washington in Race (2/11); Angela Lansbury in A Little Night Music (2/11); Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Hecht in A View from the Bridge (2/11); Sam Rockwell, Anthony Mackie and Zoe Kazan in A Behanding from Spokane (4/8/10); Barbara Cook, Tom Wopat, and Vanessa Williams in Sondheim on Sondheim (4/30/10)

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Updated On: 4/30/10 at 04:58 PM

I think it would be perfectly safe to include Finian's Rainbow, A Little Night Music, and Ragtime in the revival category. I can not imagine any way that those three shows would be petitioned for, or considered, as anything else.

I think Cheyenne and Kate will be leading as with Kimball and Glover.
Jim Norton will be a front runner in supporting.

Why did I think BURN THE FLOOR had already been on Broadway?

If Benanti is in lead, so will Cervaris.

I just checked my Playbill. Victor Garber is the only name above the title.

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Bump with the final list of shows to open this season, including Everyday Rapture.

My personal predictions for the categories:

BEST MUSICAL
Locks: American Idiot, Fela!
Likely: The Addams Family, Memphis
Next in line: Everyday Rapture
Unlikely: Come Fly Away, All About Me, Burn the Floor, Million Dollar Quartet, Sondheim on Sondheim
(It will be interesting to see if Everyday Rapture makes it in over The Addams Family and Memphis, both of which I think will have a mixed critical response. However, they are the only two musicals this year that have original scores, and are also "big" Broadway musicals, so I think they will get the nod here. But it will be close.)

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Locks: None
Likely: A Little Night Music, Finian's Rainbow, La Cage Aux
Folles, Promises, Promises
Next in line: Ragtime
Unlikely: Bye Bye Birdie
(I think that both La Cage and Promises will get good reviews, and I can't see the committee nominating two closed shows (Finian's and Ragtime) and overlooking open shows with good reviews. Finian's got better overall reviews than Ragtime, so it gets my pick.)

BEST PLAY
Locks: Enron, Red
Likely: Next Fall, Time Stands Still
Next in line: A Behanding in Spokane, In the Next Room
Unlikely: Superior Donuts, Race, Looped, A Steady Rain, Wishful Drinking
(A lot of good new plays this year. In a different year, Superior Donuts would make it, but not against this competition.)


BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Locks: A View from the Bridge, Lend Me a Tenor
Likely: Collected Stories, Fences, or The Royal Family
Unlikely: After Miss Julie, Hamlet, The Miracle Worker, Oleanna, and Present Laughter
(If Collected Stories and Fences get good reviews, at least one of them will get in over the bunch of closed revivals listed above.)

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Locks: John Gallagher, Jr for American Idiot; Douglas Hodge for La Cage aux Folles; Sean Hayes for Promises Promises; Sahr Ngaujah for Fela!
Likely: Nathan Lane for The Addams Family
Next in line: Alexander Hanson for A Little Night Music; Chad Kimball for Memphis; Kelsey Grammer for La Cage aux Folles
Unlikely: Michael Feinstein and Dame Edna for All About Me; John Stamos for Bye Bye Birdie; Cheyenne Jackson and Jim Norton for Finian's Rainbow; Quentin Earl Darrington and Robert Petkoff for Ragtime; Tom Wopat for Sondheim on Sondheim; James Clow for White Christmas
(This is the most competitive major category this year. I still think that the four I have listed are true locks, with the rest fighting for the final slot. In such a competitive year, I can't see the actors from Finian's and Ragtime getting in ahead of one of the actors listed from an open show, unfortunately.)

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Locks: Catherine Zeta-Jones for A Little Night Music; Sherie Rene Scott for Everyday Rapture
Likely: Barbara Cook for Sondheim on Sondheim; Kate Baldwin for Finian's Rainbow; Montego Glover for Memphis
Next in line: Kristin Chenoweth for Promises Promises
Unlikely: Gina Gershon for Bye Bye Birdie; Vanessa Williams for Sondheim on Sondheim; Melissa Errico for White Christmas
(Also a very competitive category. If Kristin Chenoweth nails her part by opening night, Montego Glover will probably become an also-ran.)

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Locks: Liev Schreiber for A View from the Bridge; Alfred Molina for Red
Likely: Christopher Walken for A Behanding in Spokane; Tony Shalhoub for Lend Me a Tenor; Norbert Leo Butz in Enron
Complete Wild Card: Denzel Washington in Fences
Next in line: Patrick Breen for Next Fall; Michael Cerveris for In the Next Room; Michael McKean for Superior Donuts; Jude Law for Hamlet; Brian D'Arcy James for Time Stands Still; Justin Bartha for Lend Me a Tenor
Unlikely: Jonny Lee Miller for After Miss Julie; James Spader for Race; Daniel Craig and Hugh Jackman for A Steady Rain
(Lots of well-received performances here. Denzel Washington could be fantastic or horrible -- it will be great to find out which one it turns out to be!)

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Locks: Laura Linney for Time Stands Still; Linda Lavin for Collected Stories
Likely: Valerie Harper for Looped; Jan Maxwell for The Royal Family; Carrie Fisher for Wishful Drinking
Next in Line: Laura Benanti for In the Next Room
Unlikely: Sienna Miller for After Miss Julie; Abigail Breslin and Alison Pill for The Miracle Worker; Julia Stiles for Oleanna
(If Viola Davis gets put in Leading, she is a lock to get nominated.)

For Featured, my current predictions are

Featured Actor in a Musical: Kevin Chamberlin for The Addams Family, Stark Sands for American Idiot, Levi Kreis for Million Dollar Quartet, Charlie Neyshaba-Hodges for Come Fly Away, Fred Applegate for La Cage aux Folles

Featured Actress in a Musical: Angela Lansbury for A Little Night Music, Rebecca Naomi Jones for American Idiot, Lillias White for Fela!, Katie Finneran for Promises Promises, Karine Plantadit for Come Fly Away

Featured Actor in a Play: Eddie Redmayne for Red, Jon Michael Hill for Superior Donuts, Anthony Mackie for A Behanding in Spokane, Gregory Itzin for Enron, Stephen Kunken for Enron

Featured Actress in a Play: Scarlett Johansson for A View from the Bridge, Maria Dizzia for In the Next Room, Rosemary Harris for The Royal Family, Sarah Paulson for Collected Stories, Jan Maxwell for Lend Me a Tenor (yes, she will get nominated twice)

Any thoughts? Anyone I've forgotten in the Featured categories?

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Updated On: 4/1/10 at 07:27 PM

Those were amusing.

This thread is crazy.

With his placement in Featured, I'd be surprised if Brian d'Arcy James isn't nominated. I'd actually be surprised if he wasn't a top contender to win too. His work in Time Stands Still was exceptional. I'd hope Tony voters would want to finally honor this hard working Bway vet before they were to award the mediocre, imo, performance from Redmayne.

Now that everything has opened and been reviewed we can make better guesses as to what will be nominatesd.

Based on the overall reviews here are the rankings in each category. If the nominations follow the critical consensus, the top 4 would be the nominees.

Best Play:
TIME STANDS STILL (92% positive)
WISHFUL DRINKING (87%)
SUPERIOR DONUTS (80%)
NEXT FALL (78%)

A STEADY RAIN (71%)
RED (70%)
IN THE NEXT ROOM (69%)
ENRON (58%)
A BEHANDING IN SPOKANE (56%)
AFTER MISS JULIE (55%)
ALL ABOUT ME (41%)
RACE (36%)
LOOPED (36%)


Best revival of a Play:
THE ROYAL FAMILY (95%)
A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE (94%)
FENCES (92%)
BRIGHTON BEACH MEMOIRS (89%)

COLLECTED STORIES (88%)
THE MIRACLE WORKER (79%)
LEND ME A TENON (78%)
HAMLET (77%)
OLEANNA (68%)
PRESENT LAUGHTER (53%)

Best Musical:
FELA! (100%)
EVERYDAY RAPTURE (88%)
MEMPHIS (77%)
SONDHEIM ON SONDHEIM (77%)

COME FLY AWAY (72%)
AMERICAN IDIOT (67%)
BURN THE FLOOR (65%)
MILLION DOLLAR QUARTET (64%)
THE ADDAMS FAMILY (30%)

Best revival of a Musical:
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (100%)
RAGTIME (89%)
LA CAGE AUX FOLLES (86%)
A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC (74%)

PROMISES PROMISES (60%)
WHITE CHRISTMAS (45%)
BYE BYE BIRDIE (21%)


Voters who have not seen all the nominees in each category are supposed to abstain from voting in that field, but as has been reported many times few voters take that obligation seriously. It also would be hard for many of them to see the top contenders in the play categories since most have closed.

It will be interesting to see how these align with the actual nominees on Tuesday morning.

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Where are those percentages coming from?

Where are those percentages coming from?

Oh, I explained that in another thread.

By taking all the positive reviews (including mixed leaning positive) and dividing by the total number of reviews you can calculate the percentage positive. Similar to what is done on Rotten Tomatoes.

I just classed WHITE CHRISTMAS under revivals, I didn't mean to imply it was eligible. Actually was there a ruling on that show? Doesn't matter - it wouldn't be nominated anyhow.

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Well, and StageGrade gives a differing view. If we follow the average grades from stagegrade.com, the nominees would be as follows: (btw, the people at stagegrade assign a letter grade to each major review and then average them out)

Highest BEST PLAY scores:
Wishful Drinking: A-
Time Stands Still: B+
Red: B+
Superior Donuts: B+
In the Next Room: B+

Also close...
Next Fall: B
Enron: B
A Steady Rain: B-

Highest BEST MUSICAL scores:
Fela!: A-
Everyday Rapture: A-
Memphis: B
Come Fly Away: B
Million Dollar Quartet: B

Also close...
American Idiot: B-
Sondheim on Sondheim: B-
Burn the Floor: B-

Highest PLAY REVIVAL scores:
A View From the Bridge: A-
Lend Me a Tenor: A-
Fences: B+
Collected Stories: B+
The Royal Family: B+

also close...
Hamlet: B
Oleanna: B

Highest MUSICAL REVIVAL scores:
La Cage aux Folles: A-
Ragtime: A-
Finian's Rainbow: A-
A Little Might Music: B

also close...
Promises, Promises: C+

So, that's a slightly different list than frontrow's. But both lists make me wonder if everyone has counted out Wishful Drinking without cause. It seems to have been one of the best (if not THE best) reviewed shows of the season. Also, it would just be sad if Promises got niminated ahead of Ragtime or Finian's as its reviews were significantly worse.

^which I totally get, and even agree that the Tony voters will snub it, In the Next Room and possibly Superior Donuts for Next Fall and maybe Enron.
But then it makes me wonder if Carrie Fisher will get a nomination since her show didn't and knock out Valerie Harper or Jan Maxwell. I actually think that could happen...