She's an amazing talent indeed, but if she takes it over KC, I'll be surprised.
Mainly because of the differences between the two roles is significant. And if both are pulling it off with great success, the nod should go to the more challenging role IMO.
A number of people on here have said KO captures the "nuance" of Anna very well.
But what KC is doing over there at the American Airlines Theater is a lot more than nuance IMO. It's also rigorous vocals (and didn't KO say the vocals aren't that challenging in TKAI), but acting, comic timing and rapid fire pace of the show.
From reading these boards, it sounds like a lot of people believe KO should have gotten it last year for her extraordinary performance in BOMC. It almost makes me think that if she gets it this year it will be more for her not having received it yet after so many nominations.
Considering the complexity of Lily Garland, if KC doesn't get it, I'll be like, what does she have to do to nab the Tony for leading actress if she's not getting it for this role?
And if it's going to someone for their portrayal of Anna, which has been done so many times, it's hard to imagine how much differently Anna can be portrayed at this point.
All my opinion of course, having seen both shows.