Two different interesting points have been raised in the last few posts:
- Different shows or elements might win at different times because of the circumstances in the world during the voting period. I agree that Moulin Rouge's chances of winning Best Musical are higher now than they would have been in October, or if Trump had won in November. Right now, it seems like Broadway needs a big, splashy show to help remind people why they go to New York, and Moulin Rouge fits that bill.
- Different shows or elements might win at different times because what gets remembered in the short term might not be the same as what gets remembered a year later. The recency effect that helps the show that opened right before the nomination deadline isn't very important now that everything is at least a year old. Again, this might help Moulin Rouge, whose July opening may have hurt it under normal circumstances. Its eye-popping design elements are still very vivid in my mind almost 18 months after I saw the show.
"What was the name of that cheese that I like?"
"you can't run away forever...but there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start"
"well I hope and I pray, that maybe someday, you'll walk in the room with my heart"