Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16- Page 5

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 11:30am

TerrenceIsTheMann said: "Time has passed, I have seen more, and my predictions have changed. I fully regret putting China Doll as a nomination, Wow. Here's what I see as of now, numbered from best chance of winning to least.

 

Tony Nomination Predictions 2016

 

Best Musical

 

1. Hamilton
2. Waitress
3. School of Rock 
4. American Psycho
5. (Possible 5th Nomination) ON YOUR FEET!

Best Revival of A Musical

 

1. Shuffle Along
2. The Color Purple
3. Fiddler on the Roof
4. Spring Awakening

Best Play

 

1. King Charles III 
2. The Humans
3. Eclipsed
4. Fool For Love

Best Revival of A Play

 

1. A View From The Bridge
2. The Crucible
3. Long Day's Journey Into Night
4. Blackbird

Best Actor (Musical)

 

1. Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton) 
2. Danny Burstein (Fiddler)
3. Benjamin Walker (American Psycho)
4. Lin Manuel-Miranda (Hamilton)
5. Alex Brightman (School of Rock)

Best Actor (Play)

 

1. Mark Strong (A View From The Bridge) 
2. Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III)
3. Reed Birney (The Humans)
4. Forest Whitaker (Hughie)
5. Ben Whishaw (The Crucible) 

Best Actress (Musical)

 

1.  Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple)
2.  Jessie Mueller (Waitress) 
3. Laura Benanti (She Loves Me)
4. Philippa Soo (Hamilton)
5. Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along) 

Best Actress (Play) 

 

1. Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia)
2. Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
3. Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)
4. Laurie Metcalf (Misery)
5. Keira Knightley (Therese Raquin)

Best Supporting Actor (Musical)

 

1. Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)
2. Daveed Diggs (Hamilton) 
3. Jonathan Groff (Hamilton) 
4. Billy Porter (Shuffle Along)
5. Isaiah Johnson (The Color Purple)

Best Supporting Actor (Play)

 

1. Michael Shannon (Long Day's)
2. John Gallagher Jr. (Long Day’s)
3.  Richard Goulding (King Richard III)
4. Ciaran Hinds (The Crucible)
5. Robert Sella (Sylvia)

Best Supporting Actress (Musical)

 

1. Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton) 
2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
3. Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me) 
4. Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple)
5. Lesli Margherita (Dames At Sea)

Best Supporting Actress (Play) 

 

1. Saoirse Ronan (The Crucible)
2. Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed)
3. Lydia Wilson (King Charles III)
4. Nicola Walker (A View From The Bridge)
5. Megan Hilty (Noises Off)

Best Book of A Musical 

 

1. Hamilton 
2. American Psycho
3. Tuck Everlasting
4. Waitress

Best Score Of A Musical

 

1. Hamilton
2. Waitress
3. American Psycho
4. School of Rock

"

You expect anyone to take this list seriously? When you are predicting wins for shows that don't even have a completed book. Nor are they open. Nor do you know which category they will be placed in. 

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 12:52pm

No one is above the title for The Humans. I am curious where they'll place Houdyshell and Birney- the show is an ensemble piece but they certainly feel the most central. However, I think they'd both have real shots at winning in Featured- in the Lead category, they're going against people like Mark Strong and Jessica Lange, who have much heavier roles in their plays. 

As for Noises Off, I absolutely think the play, set, and Hilty will be nominated. I also would love to see David Furr in the mix- I thought he was an absolute standout and he always does great work in everything. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 2:25pm

Broadwaystar2 said: "You expect anyone to take this list seriously? When you are predicting wins for shows that don't even have a completed book. Nor are they open. Nor do you know which category they will be placed in."

 

...what do you think has been happening for the last 100 posts? These are predictions people are tossing around for fun. Obviously we don't know anything fo' sho until the end of April. Calm down.

[Shrek3]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 2:38pm

There's no way the Tony voters are going to pass up the chance to give Danny his Tony Award this year. Just like Kelli last year, he's winning for his body of work while the more inspired performance ( Kristin Chenoweth in 20th century, Leslie in Hamilton) will go unrewarded. 

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 2:41pm

I'm not banking on Leslie and Lin splitting the votes - Leslie is, at least to me, so clearly the star of this show. You miss him when he isn't on stage.

 

Then again, Danny winning the Tony, at least in my mind, would be warranted as well - he was superb.

[Shrek3]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 2:45pm

Eh. I think Leslie deserves it more but Danny took the part cause he knew it would finally get him a tony (not that i blame him). I really don't see them not giving it to Danny this year.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 2:46pm

Plus, of all the great things in Hamilton I hear people talking about most, Leslie Odom, Jr.'s performance isn't one of them.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:07pm

Really? Because I have heard nothing but great things about Leslie Odom Jr.'s performance.

Wonderfulwizard, thanks for the clarification re Houdyshell's billing. I

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:17pm

BroadwayConcierge said: "Broadwaystar2 said: "You expect anyone to take this list seriously? When you are predicting wins for shows that don't even have a completed book. Nor are they open. Nor do you know which category they will be placed in."

 

 

 

...what do you think has been happening for the last 100 posts? These are predictions people are tossing around for fun. Obviously we don't know anything fo' sho until the end of April. Calm down.

 

"

How can you POSSIBLY predict a win for a show that's not even complete? Nothing you can ever say will change my mind about that one. 

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:18pm

Shrek3 said: "There's no way the Tony voters are going to pass up the chance to give Danny his Tony Award this year. Just like Kelli last year, he's winning for his body of work while the more inspired performance ( Kristin Chenoweth in 20th century, Leslie in Hamilton) will go unrewarded. 

 

"

Are you serious with this post?

[pupscotch]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:25pm

Shrek3 said: "There's no way the Tony voters are going to pass up the chance to give Danny his Tony Award this year. Just like Kelli last year, he's winning for his body of work while the more inspired performance ( Kristin Chenoweth in 20th century, Leslie in Hamilton) will go unrewarded."

This is ridiculous. Danny absolutely deserves to win this year, as Kelli did last year. I haven't yet seen Hamilton, but regardless, Danny was absolutely fantastic. 

 

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:31pm

Is there such a thing a Tony-baity? People always joke about Oscar-baity roles.

 

Tevye is certainly Tony-baity.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:31pm

ray-andallthatjazz86 said: "Really? Because I have heard nothing but great things about Leslie Odom Jr.'s performance."

 

What I meant was that Leslie Odom, Jr. isn't one of the first things I hear when people talk about Hamilton.

 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:42pm

ChildofEarth said: "Is there such a thing a Tony-baity? People always joke about Oscar-baity roles.

 

Tevye is certainly Tony-baity."

 

I know there is always the classic case of the acting veteran winning over the newcomer such as Michael Cerveris winning over Robert Fairchild. Though sometimes, we see the newcomer winning over the acting veteran such as Ruthie Ann Miles winning over Judy Kuhn.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 3:57pm

Friendly reminder that while Tevye is one of the most important and iconic roles in musical theatre history, it has earned its revival production performers a grand total of zero Tony Awards. I adore Danny with all my heart, but I'm in the Leslie camp—big time.

Updated On: 2/6/16 at 03:57 PM

[Birdwell]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 5:48pm

neonlightsxo said: "funhamilton_rent, it's very clear you don't know how this process works. Neither Spring Awakening NOR Old Times will win. They won't be running in June.

Also, Fool for Love & Sylvia are revivals. Why don't you sit back and read some threads first? "

Actually, a production does not need to be running in June. And the rules re revivals are pretty subjective. And snark is never nice, no matter how much (or little) you know about any given subject. Fair enough?

http://www.tonyawards.com/pdf/2015_Tony_Rules_and_Regulations.pdf

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 5:55pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "What I meant was that Leslie Odom, Jr. isn't one of the first things I hear when people talk about Hamilton."

 

I get what you were saying but I still disagree. And really we could go back and forth about what we've heard or not heard, but the reality is that Leslie Odom Jr. has a very legitimate chance to win as does Danny Burstein. I wouldn't be surprised if the HAMILTON buzz and the strength of the performance carries Odom Jr. to the win, especially if voters feel divided about Burstein's performance and FIDDLER ON THE ROOF, which I don't think has the kind of consistently positive reception that helped Kelli O'Hara's performance in THE KING & I to ultimately prove undeniable for voters. Then again I was convinced Chenoweth's once in a lifetime kind of turn in ON THE TWENTIETH CENTURY would be the winner.

 

[woeisme3]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 7:05pm

I agree that Burstein will likely get a body-of-work win against Leslie Odom. I think it'll probably be the only real place to honor the Fiddler revival.

And no, a show does not have to be running in June to win, but it's been years since a closed show won. Even when a closed show gets better reviews than any f the open ones, the open one will still win. (See FOLLIES vs PORGY AND BESS a few years back)

[JBroadway]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 7:08pm

If Tevye had a nickel for every time the Kelli vs. Kristin argument has been rehashed in the last 8 months, he would be a very rich man, indeed. 

[ViniFromBrazil]

Posted: 2/6/16 at 9:08pm

Best Play: Eclipsed
Best Revival of a Play: A View from the Bridge
Best Lead Actor in a Play: Mark Strong
Best Lead Actress in a Play: Lupita Nyong'o
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Reed Birney
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Jayne Houdyshell
Best Direction of a Play: Ivo van Hove for A View from the Bridge (a lock?)

Best Musical: Hamilton
Best Revival of a Musical: The Color Purple
Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein
Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Cynthia Erivo
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Daveed Diggs
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Renee Elise Goldsberry
Best Direction of a Musical: John Doyle for The Color Purple

Has the committee decided The Color Purple's eligibility? If not, do you think it's possible that they promote Jennifer Hudson as a lead actress since she'd have a better shot at winning?

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 2/7/16 at 1:13am

TCP wasn't addressed in the last round of eligibility decisions. (http://www.tonyawards.com/mobile/en_US/news/articles/2016-01-07/201601071452197629667.html)

 

I don't see any way Shug Avery could be billed as a leading role. And I think while Hudson is a "bigger star," Erivo has a better shot due to the universal accolades she's received. Don't get me wrong; I actually thought Hudson was great, but Erivo is giving the performance of a lifetime. I don't think the Tony voters would be more like to to vote for Hudson if she were placed in leading. 

[pupscotch]

Posted: 2/7/16 at 8:55am

ViniFromBrazil said: "Best Play: Eclipsed
Best Revival of a Play: A View from the Bridge
Best Lead Actor in a Play: Mark Strong
Best Lead Actress in a Play: Lupita Nyong'o
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Reed Birney
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Jayne Houdyshell
Best Direction of a Play: Ivo van Hove for A View from the Bridge (a lock?)

Best Musical: Hamilton
Best Revival of a Musical: The Color Purple
Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein
Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Cynthia Erivo
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Daveed Diggs
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Renee Elise Goldsberry
Best Direction of a Musical: John Doyle for The Color Purple

Has the committee decided The Color Purple's eligibility? If not, do you think it's possible that they promote Jennifer Hudson as a lead actress since she'd have a better shot at winning?"

Jennifer Hudson doesn't have a better shot in Leading, considering her peer Cynthia Erivo is giving a fantastic performance in their show. 

I think your predictions are spot on, though I would like Michael Arden to win in Direction of a Musical for Spring Awakening.

[woeisme3]

Posted: 2/7/16 at 9:12am

I don't think Arden has a chance at winning for Spring Awakening: I doubt he'll even be nominated. Closed shows are not often remembered by the tony awards. Best Direction will probably be some combination of Thomas Kail/George C.Wolfe/Diane Paulus/John Doyle/Bartlett Sher/Scott Ellis.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/7/16 at 9:57am

^As of now, I think three of the five nominees for Best Direction of a Musical will likely be:

John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof

 

The remaining candidates we should see first are:

Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
Diane Paulus-Waitress (depending on how she ends up shaping the show for Broadway)
George C. Wolfe-Shuffle Along...

 

Or who knows? Some other director(s) we didn't see coming could hit it out of the park and get nominated.

[AndersonTours]

Posted: 2/7/16 at 5:01pm

I think it'll be between Burstein and Odom. They're both giving terrific performances. Really loved them. I couldn't decide which is better and I'm glad I don't have to. But I do know they're two of the finest performances Broadway has seen in a while. I love that Burstein has such a brilliant body of work (Aldolpho, Billis, Buddy, Herr Schulz - all amazing), but I think the Tony should be based on the work this year. So it's a toss up for me.
This is a fun category. Looking forward to Benjamin Walker too.