Featured Actor Joined: 9/26/15
Okay, so I know it's really early, but I want to start this thread really badly. Also, I didn’t do the creative awards or the acting awards for the plays because I’m not feeling it right now. Without further ado, here are some of my predictions for the Hamilton Sh—er, um, the 70th Tony Awards.
Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton (WIN)
Shuffle Along (I’m gonna do a Birdman) (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTIONS: Allegiance & On Your Feet!
Best Play:
China Doll
Fool For Love (WIN)
Misery
Sylvia (MAYBE)
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening (WIN)
HONORABLE MENTION: Fiddler On The Roof
Revival of a Play:
A View From The Bridge
Old Times (WIN)
The Crucible
Thérèse Raquin
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Billy Porter - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
George Takei - Allegiance
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Austin McKenzie - Spring Awakening
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Lea Salonga - Allegiance
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Ana Villafane - On Your Feet!
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Alex Boniello & Daniel Durant - Spring Awakening
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Andrea Burns - On Your Feet!
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Sierra Boggess - School of Rock: The Musical
HONORABLE MENTION: Lesli Margarita - Dames At Sea
Score:
Allegiance
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock: The Musical
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTION: ??
Book of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Waitress
Number of Nominations (without creative awards):
Hamilton - 10
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed) - 5
American Psycho - 4
Allegiance - 3
School of Rock: The Musical - 3
She Loves Me - 3
Spring Awakening - 3
Waitress - 3
On Your Feet! - 2
I know lots of people are going to say that Hamilton won't get nominated for 10 (w/o creative), but we all know it just might. Please write your feedback or your own predictions!
Leading Actor Joined: 9/16/15
Featured Actor Joined: 9/26/15
Actually, it isn't. It is about the making of the musical. That's why it's called Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed). Shuffle Along is the musical sensation. This is about Shuffle Along.
Isn't Sylvia a revival since its kind of like Cinderella where has never been on Broadway before, but it's like historical or something?
^Yes, and Fool for Love.
Plus, we don't even know if Shuffle Along will end up being eligible as a new musical or a revival yet.
Updated On: 10/15/15 at 07:50 AMLeading Actor Joined: 9/16/15
Call_me_jorge said: "Isn't Sylvia a revival since its kind of like Cinderella where has never been on Broadway before, but it's like historical or something?
"
Little Shop of Horrors was also treated as a revival when it made it on Broadway.
I think Shuffle Along will be categorized as a revival.
I wonder if Amelie is making it to Broadway.
After watching this today, I think this is gonna be Danny Burstein's year!
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
funhamilton_rent, it's very clear you don't know how this process works. Neither Spring Awakening NOR Old Times will win. They won't be running in June.
Also, Fool for Love & Sylvia are revivals. Why don't you sit back and read some threads first?
My understanding of Shuffle Along is that it's the original musical but with additional scenes about the making of it. If Flower Drum Song was considered a revival even with an entirely new book, my feeling is that this will be considered a revival as well. But I could be wrong.
Broadway Star Joined: 9/28/15
Here are my predictions:
Tony Nomination Predictions 2016
Best Musical
Other Options: Allegiance, Tuck Everlasting, School of Rock Amazing Grace
Best Revival of A Musical
Those left off (for now): Whorehouse, Fiddler
Those left off (completely): Dames At Sea
Best Play
Best Revival of A Play
Best Actor (Musical)
Other Options: Andrew Keenan-Bolger, Alex Brightman, Josh Young, Telly Leung, Zach Levi, Josh Segarra
Best Actor (Play)
Other Options: Bruce Willis, Gabriel Byrne, James Earl Jones, Jeff Daniels, Matt Ryan, Clive Owen, Sam Rockwell, Frank Langella, Matthew Broderick, Ben Wishaw
Best Actress (Musical)
Other Options: Ana Villane, Sutton Foster, Erin Mackey, Jessica Hecht, Sierra Boggess, Lea Salonga
Best Actress (Play)
Other Options: Michelle Williams, Cicely Tyson, Kelly Reilly, Nina Arianda, Linda Lavin
Best Supporting Actor (Musical)
Other Options: Oak, Anthony Ramos, Christopher Jackson, Andy Mientus, Patrick Page, Chuck Cooper, Gavin Creel, Michael McGrath, Josh Henry, Brandon Victor-Dixon, George Takei
Best Supporting Actor (Play)
Other Options: Oliver Chris, Emun Elliot, Christopher Denham, Jeremy Shamos
Best Supporting Actress (Musical)
Other Options: Jasmine Cephas Jones, Krysta Rodriguez, Mara Davi, Katie Rose Clarke, Danielle Brooks, Carolee Carmello, Keala Settle, Marlee Matlin, Camryn Manheim
Best Supporting Actress (Play)
Other Options: Megan Hilty, Margot Leicester, Lydia Wilson
Best Book of A Musical
Best Score Of A Musical
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/25/14
I really hope that Megan Hilty gets her first ever Tony nomination this season (and possibly a win)
And I think she has a really good chance, if the performance is good.
She is so loved and well-known, yet she hasn't even been nominated, which I could prove to be a good narrative for her, perhaps? Not to mention that if she slays Annie Get Your Gun, she would have starred in two short lived "theatrical triumphs" this year between Bombshell and AGYG.
The producers of SHUFFLE ALONG seem to be pushing it as a revival in the later press releases. We'll see what the Tony committee decides.
I also think it's Danny Burstein's year, given both the press preview and his impeccable history in a range of wonderful parts he has played beautifully. At the same time, it's a fool's errand to make that kind of call before performances begin.
Broadway Star Joined: 9/4/13
funhamilton_rent said: "Okay, so I know it's really early, but I want to start this thread really badly. Also, I didn’t do the creative awards or the acting awards for the plays because I’m not feeling it right now. Without further ado, here are some of my predictions for the Hamilton Sh—er, um, the 70th Tony Awards.
You're giving revival winner to Spring Awakening? They close in January and are selling at 68 percent capacity......??? REALLY??
Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton (WIN)
Shuffle Along (I’m gonna do a Birdman) (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTIONS: Allegiance & On Your Feet!
Best Play:
China Doll
Fool For Love (WIN)
Misery
Sylvia (MAYBE)
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening (WIN)
HONORABLE MENTION: Fiddler On The Roof
Revival of a Play:
A View From The Bridge
Old Times (WIN)
The Crucible
Thérèse Raquin
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Billy Porter - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
George Takei - Allegiance
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Austin McKenzie - Spring Awakening
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Lea Salonga - Allegiance
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Ana Villafane - On Your Feet!
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Alex Boniello & Daniel Durant - Spring Awakening
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Andrea Burns - On Your Feet!
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Sierra Boggess - School of Rock: The Musical
HONORABLE MENTION: Lesli Margarita - Dames At Sea
Score:
Allegiance
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock: The Musical
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTION: ??
Book of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Waitress
Number of Nominations (without creative awards):
Hamilton - 10
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed) - 5
American Psycho - 4
Allegiance - 3
School of Rock: The Musical - 3
She Loves Me - 3
Spring Awakening - 3
Waitress - 3
On Your Feet! - 2
I know lots of people are going to say that Hamilton won't get nominated for 10 (w/o creative), but we all know it just might. Please write your feedback or your own predictions!
"
Based on the history of "Noises Off", I'd say Megan has a pretty good shot at nailing the nomination. Also, I really want Annaleigh Ashford to be in the leading actress category. It would be a more stiff competition, sure, but I think it's only right, given that the play is named after her character. Either way, she's a total lock for a nomination.
Will BLACKBIRD be a revival or a new play?
Never been on Bway, but was first seen in NY almost ten years ago.
Swing Joined: 8/1/14
While I agree with many things posted, I have some objections. First and foremost~especially with the competition~ George Takei will not be getting a nomination. He is a featured actor, with no songs. He is there because it is his story, his passion project, and his character is cute and sweet, but when you have a possible 3 featured actor nominees from Hamilton, he won't get the nod. He is only above the title because he's a name. Telly Leung is the male lead of Allegiance and while I loved him in the role, and would love for him to be nominated, I doubt Allegiance will be running when awards season starts, and so it probably won't happen. [Allegiance may get a nod for orchestrations]
Second, while Danny Burnstein may be deserving and it may be his year, the only real way for him to win is if Lin and Leslie split the vote - which can happen [see lead actor in a musical 2011]. Additionally, with the competition, I don't know if Groff will be getting a nomination. While three actors from a show have all gotten nods [see fun home] it can hinder their chances of winning [see 2015 featured actress in a musical] with split votes and things. The Hamilton actor I see as most likely to win their category is Renee Elise Goldsberry because her role is slightly larger than a purely featured actress, and the talent required to deliver the role successfully is great [and present]. We /may/ see Jasmine Cephas Jones get a nod[ not unlike, but with slightly more purpose than that of Emily Skeggs] , but that all depends on the competition. David Diggs is very likely to get a nomination if not win, because his role is crafted as a standard featured actor role, but he has very entertaining characters to play.
In terms of score, if there is a sixth score [possibly tuck everlasting] that is worthy, Allegiance will not get a nod there.
I imagine bart will get a nod for Fiddler.
While I am not too informed on The Color Purple, I have heard Cynthia Erivo sing, and I can't imagine her not getting a nomination [and I think the Color Purple will be included in other categories as well]
Lastly, there is still a slew of shows that have yet to open, and decisions need to be made on categories and placement of shows and actors, so while Hamilton is going to basically be having a cast party at these press events, there is a lot to see. [additionally other awards shows will be interesting as hamilton is out of the running due to previous eligibility [and since there is no "hamilton" running off broadway, the stage will be clear for shows that might not get recognition otherwise] ]
Updated On: 12/29/15 at 03:09 AM
Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock
Waitress
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening
Fiddler On The Roof
POSSIBLY: Shuffle Along
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Danny Burstein - Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo - Color Purple
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton/ANOTHER PERSON
Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson - Color Purple
Lesli Margarita - Dames At Sea
From the shows this season that have opened so far (including off-Broadway shows that will be transferring in the spring), here's what I think has good chances of getting nominated:
Best Musical:
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Best Play:
Eclipsed-Danai Gurira
The Humans-Stephen Karam
King Charles III-Mike Bartlett
Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Spring Awakening
Best Revival of a Play:
A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock: The Musical
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Reed Birney-The Humans
Tim Pigott-Smith-King Charles III
Mark Strong-A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annaleigh Ashford-Sylvia
Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans
Laurie Metcalf-Misery
Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Richard Goulding-King Charles III
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Phoebe Fox-A View From the Bridge
Nicola Walker-A View From the Bridge
Lydia Wilson-King Charles III
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Direction of a Play:
Rupert Goold-King Charles III
Joe Mantello-The Humans
Liesl Tommy-Eclipsed
Ivo van Hove-A View From the Bridge
Best Original Score:
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock: The Musical-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris
School of Rock: The Musical-Julian Fellowes
Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
JoAnn M. Hunter-School of Rock: The Musical
Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening
Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
Best Orchestrations:
Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple
Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton
Andrew Lloyd Webber-School of Rock: The Musical
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Howell Binkley-Hamilton
Jane Cox-The Color Purple
Donald Holder-Fiddler on the Roof
Natasha Katz-School of Rock: The Musical
Kenneth Posner-On Your Feet!
Best Lighting Design of a Play:
Jon Clark-King Charles III
Jennifer Schriever-Eclipsed
Justin Townsend-The Humans
Jan Versweyveld-A View From the Bridge
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
John Doyle-The Color Purple
David Korins-Hamilton
Michael Yeargan-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Scenic Design of a Play:
Beowulf Boritt-Therese Raquin
David Korins-Misery
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
Tom Scutt-King Charles III
David Zinn-The Humans
Best Costume Design of a Musical:
ESosa-On Your Feet!
Ann Hould-Ward-The Color Purple
Paul Tazewell-Hamilton
Catherine Zuber-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Costume Design of a Play:
Jane Greenwood-Therese Raquin
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
I agree that Jennifer Hudson and Danielle Brooks will almost certainly both be nominated, just as the originals were both nominated in 2006.
Broadway Star Joined: 4/20/15
Just curious, Jeffrey. Based on your running tabulations of shows that have opened but not giving consideration yet to those that haven't (which is an interesting way to track the road to the Tonys), do you see On Your Feet being the musical that most likely exits a number of those lists when these newer shows do open?
I could see it getting some nods anyway, simply because they might want to give a little something of an acknowledgment to Broadway newbies, the Estefans.
But is the show good enough, overall, to merit keeping out the likes of American Psycho, Waitress, Shuffle Along (if it's deemed a new musical), Tuck Everlasting, etc. just to acknowledge the Estefans? There seems to be several strong contenders on their way to Broadway which could change up the predictions.
I'll be in NY in March and, while I love Estefan and MSM music, I'm taking a pass on this one. Some of the clips I've seen just don't look interesting enough to me (even despite my love for their music).
The dancing is, of course, good. And the music is, well, MSM/Estefan music, so it's great as well. But I've heard mixed reactions to the book and the story itself. It seems like the entertainment value deemed by audiences is mostly in the music and dance, but when it gets back to the story it becomes more "meh." And since I've seen a couple of their concerts, I've heard their music and seen the dance that goes along with it. Which is why I'm opting for some of the newer musicals/classic revivals when it comes to my visit: Hamilton, Shuffle Along, American Psycho, She Loves Me, Fiddler on the Roof and (if time) The King and I or Waitress. I wonder where it will stand come Tony time.
This is another strong season! With a lot of big name contenders.
Yes, we do have other new musicals coming in this season like:
American Psycho
Bright Star
Disaster!
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress
Most of them do have potential, but it's only a matter of how they live up to their potential. Sure, they've all played in front of audiences before, but we don't even know how they'll end up being modified for Broadway yet.
Also keep in mind that a fifth nominee for Best Musical is still possible only if it can receive three votes or less behind the fourth nominee.
In regards to On Your Feet!'s book getting nominated, Beautiful's book had mixed reactions as well, so did An American in Paris, and they were both nominated.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
This gave me a laugh.
"Best Play:
China Doll"
Carry on with your delusions!
I really think American Psycho is being underestimated. Will it win against Hamilton? No. Will it be an entertaining night of theater with dynamic performances and music? Yes. I'm looking forward to that one and am hoping it lives up to my expectations. Wonder when the full cast will be announced.
Having seen Disaster off-Broadway, I cannot see it getting any nominations other than a supporting one for Jennifer Simard. That's the reason she's being brought over from the original (everyone else has been replaced by bigger names). However, the supporting actress in a musical category is looking pretty fierce, so I don't see it happening.
George Takei will not be getting a nomination. He is a featured actor, with no songs. He is there because it is his story, his passion project, and his character is cute and sweet, but when you have a possible?
Bob Martin says hi.
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