Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

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Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 7:34am

Okay, so I know it's really early, but I want to start this thread really badly. Also, I didn’t do the creative awards or the acting awards for the plays because I’m not feeling it right now. Without further ado, here are some of my predictions for the Hamilton Sh—er, um, the 70th Tony Awards.

Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton (WIN)
Shuffle Along (I’m gonna do a Birdman) (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTIONS: Allegiance & On Your Feet!

Best Play:
China Doll
Fool For Love (WIN)
Misery
Sylvia (MAYBE)
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening (WIN)
HONORABLE MENTION: Fiddler On The Roof

Revival of a Play:
A View From The Bridge
Old Times (WIN)
The Crucible
Thérèse Raquin

Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Billy Porter - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
George Takei - Allegiance
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Austin McKenzie - Spring Awakening

Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Lea Salonga - Allegiance
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton
HONORABLE MENTION: Ana Villafane - On Your Feet!

Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Alex Boniello & Daniel Durant - Spring Awakening

Featured Actress in a Musical:
Andrea Burns - On Your Feet!
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Sierra Boggess - School of Rock: The Musical
HONORABLE MENTION: Lesli Margarita - Dames At Sea

Score:
Allegiance
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock: The Musical
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTION: ??

Book of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Waitress

Number of Nominations (without creative awards):

Hamilton - 10
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed) - 5
American Psycho - 4
Allegiance - 3
School of Rock: The Musical - 3
She Loves Me - 3
Spring Awakening - 3
Waitress - 3
On Your Feet! - 2

I know lots of people are going to say that Hamilton won't get nominated for 10 (w/o creative), but we all know it just might. Please write your feedback or your own predictions!

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 7:44am

The thing is, besides being an utter toad of a human being, Riedel usually has the least knowledge of the topic in the room. He doesn't usually understand the content or approach of a show, and is always completely and unfailingly socially ignorant, which makes it really infuriating when Susan can't get a word in edgewise. A definitive mansplainer; it's always painful when he has female guests. I watch the show sporadically when I really want to see a guest, because it's the only theatre talkshow we have, but it would be so much better without this hateful clown in a dadcoat. (thanks ScaryWarhol)

Updated On: 10/15/15 at 07:44 AM

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 7:48am

Actually, it isn't. It is about the making of the musical. That's why it's called Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed). Shuffle Along is the musical sensation. This is about Shuffle Along.

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 7:49am

Isn't Sylvia a revival since its kind of like Cinderella where has never been on Broadway before, but it's like historical or something?

My father (AIDS) My sister (AIDS) My uncle and my cousin and her best friend (AIDS, AIDS, AIDS) The gays and the straights And the white and the spades

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 7:50am

^Yes, and Fool for Love.

Plus, we don't even know if Shuffle Along will end up being eligible as a new musical or a revival yet.

Updated On: 10/15/15 at 07:50 AM

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 8:37am

Call_me_jorge said: "Isn't Sylvia a revival since its kind of like Cinderella where has never been on Broadway before, but it's like historical or something?

Little Shop of Horrors was also treated as a revival when it made it on Broadway.

I think Shuffle Along will be categorized as a revival.

I wonder if Amelie is making it to Broadway.

Updated On: 10/15/15 at 08:37 AM

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 10:54am

After watching this today, I think this is gonna be Danny Burstein's year!

https://www.periscope.tv/w/aO-xoTc3NzYxMHwxZGpHWEJFTEJtb3haE4C6DC3ZSqm3H4xaaGCy4WNt1k8lPg7NTCHrk9GkoI0=

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 11:24am

funhamilton_rent, it's very clear you don't know how this process works. Neither Spring Awakening NOR Old Times will win. They won't be running in June.

Also, Fool for Love & Sylvia are revivals. Why don't you sit back and read some threads first?

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 11:38am

My understanding of Shuffle Along is that it's the original musical but with additional scenes about the making of it. If Flower Drum Song was considered a revival even with an entirely new book, my feeling is that this will be considered a revival as well. But I could be wrong.

#10

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 9:36pm

Here are my predictions:

Tony Nomination Predictions 2016

Best Musical

Hamilton (WIN)
Waitress
On Your Feet!
American Psycho

Other Options: Allegiance, Tuck Everlasting, School of Rock Amazing Grace

Best Revival of A Musical

Spring Awakening
She Loves Me
Shuffle Along (WIN)
The Color Purple

Those left off (for now): Whorehouse, Fiddler

Those left off (completely): Dames At Sea

Best Play

King Richard III (WIN)
China Doll
Misery
Blackbird

Best Revival of A Play

Long Day’s Journey Into Night
A View From The Bridge (WIN)
Noises Off
The Crucible

Best Actor (Musical)

Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton) (WIN)
Danny Burstein (Fiddler)
Benjamin Walker (American Psycho)
Lin Manuel-Miranda (Hamilton)
Brian Stokes Mitchell (Shuffle Along)

Other Options: Andrew Keenan-Bolger, Alex Brightman, Josh Young, Telly Leung, Zach Levi, Josh Segarra

Best Actor (Play)

Tim Pigott-Smith (King Richard III)
Al Pacino (China Doll)
Mark Strong (A View From The Bridge) (WIN)
Forest Whitaker (Hughie)
Frank Langella (The Father)

Other Options: Bruce Willis, Gabriel Byrne, James Earl Jones, Jeff Daniels, Matt Ryan, Clive Owen, Sam Rockwell, Frank Langella, Matthew Broderick, Ben Wishaw

Best Actress (Musical)

Philippa Soo (Hamilton)
Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along)
Laura Benanti (She Loves Me)
Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple)
Jessie Mueller (Waitress) (WIN)

Other Options: Ana Villane, Sutton Foster, Erin Mackey, Jessica Hecht, Sierra Boggess, Lea Salonga

Best Actress (Play)

Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Laurie Metcalf (Misery) (WIN)
Andrea Martin (Noises Off)
Sophie Okenedo (The Crucible)
Keira Knightley (Therese Raquin)

Other Options: Michelle Williams, Cicely Tyson, Kelly Reilly, Nina Arianda, Linda Lavin

Best Supporting Actor (Musical)

Daveed Diggs (Hamilton) (WIN)
Terrence Mann (Tuck Everlasting)
Michael K. Lee (Allegiance)
Billy Porter (Shuffle Along)
Jonathan Groff (Hamilton)

Other Options: Oak, Anthony Ramos, Christopher Jackson, Andy Mientus, Patrick Page, Chuck Cooper, Gavin Creel, Michael McGrath, Josh Henry, Brandon Victor-Dixon, George Takei

Best Supporting Actor (Play)

John Gallagher Jr. (Long Day’s)
Gabriel Ebert (Therese Raquin)
Robert Sella (Sylvia)
Ciaran Hinds (The Crucible)
Richard Goulding (King Richard III) (WIN)

Other Options: Oliver Chris, Emun Elliot, Christopher Denham, Jeremy Shamos

Best Supporting Actress (Musical)

Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton) (WIN)
Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me)
Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple)
Lesli Margherita (Dames At Sea)
Andrea Burns (On Your Feet)

Other Options: Jasmine Cephas Jones, Krysta Rodriguez, Mara Davi, Katie Rose Clarke, Danielle Brooks, Carolee Carmello, Keala Settle, Marlee Matlin, Camryn Manheim

Best Supporting Actress (Play)

Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia) (WIN)
Julie White (Sylvia)
Saoirse Ronan (The Crucible)
Judith Light (Therese Raquin)
Nicola Walker (A View From The Bridge)

Other Options: Megan Hilty, Margot Leicester, Lydia Wilson

Best Book of A Musical

Hamilton (WIN)
American Psycho
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress

Best Score Of A Musical

Hamilton (WIN)
Waitress
American Psycho
Allegiance

Updated On: 10/15/15 at 09:36 PM

#11

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 9:47pm

I really hope that Megan Hilty gets her first ever Tony nomination this season (and possibly a win)

And I think she has a really good chance, if the performance is good.

She is so loved and well-known, yet she hasn't even been nominated, which I could prove to be a good narrative for her, perhaps? Not to mention that if she slays Annie Get Your Gun, she would have starred in two short lived "theatrical triumphs" this year between Bombshell and AGYG.

#12

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 10:03pm

The producers of SHUFFLE ALONG seem to be pushing it as a revival in the later press releases. We'll see what the Tony committee decides.

I also think it's Danny Burstein's year, given both the press preview and his impeccable history in a range of wonderful parts he has played beautifully. At the same time, it's a fool's errand to make that kind of call before performances begin.

"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"

#13

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/15/15 at 10:43pm

funhamilton_rent said: "Okay, so I know it's really early, but I want to start this thread really badly. Also, I didn’t do the creative awards or the acting awards for the plays because I’m not feeling it right now. Without further ado, here are some of my predictions for the Hamilton Sh—er, um, the 70th Tony Awards.

You're giving revival winner to Spring Awakening? They close in January and are selling at 68 percent capacity......??? REALLY??

Best Play:
China Doll
Fool For Love (WIN)
Misery
Sylvia (MAYBE)
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening (WIN)
HONORABLE MENTION: Fiddler On The Roof

Revival of a Play:
A View From The Bridge
Old Times (WIN)
The Crucible
Thérèse Raquin

Score:
Allegiance
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock: The Musical
Waitress
HONORABLE MENTION: ??

Book of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)
HONORABLE MENTION: Waitress

Number of Nominations (without creative awards):

I know lots of people are going to say that Hamilton won't get nominated for 10 (w/o creative), but we all know it just might. Please write your feedback or your own predictions!

#14

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/19/15 at 5:01am

Based on the history of "Noises Off", I'd say Megan has a pretty good shot at nailing the nomination. Also, I really want Annaleigh Ashford to be in the leading actress category. It would be a more stiff competition, sure, but I think it's only right, given that the play is named after her character. Either way, she's a total lock for a nomination.

They/them. "Get up the nerve to be all you deserve to be."

#15

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/19/15 at 9:04am

Will BLACKBIRD be a revival or a new play?

Never been on Bway, but was first seen in NY almost ten years ago.

#16

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 10/19/15 at 10:04am

^Revival

#17

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 3:09am

While I agree with many things posted, I have some objections. First and foremost~especially with the competition~ George Takei will not be getting a nomination. He is a featured actor, with no songs. He is there because it is his story, his passion project, and his character is cute and sweet, but when you have a possible 3 featured actor nominees from Hamilton, he won't get the nod. He is only above the title because he's a name. Telly Leung is the male lead of Allegiance and while I loved him in the role, and would love for him to be nominated, I doubt Allegiance will be running when awards season starts, and so it probably won't happen. [Allegiance may get a nod for orchestrations]

Second, while Danny Burnstein may be deserving and it may be his year, the only real way for him to win is if Lin and Leslie split the vote - which can happen [see lead actor in a musical 2011]. Additionally, with the competition, I don't know if Groff will be getting a nomination. While three actors from a show have all gotten nods [see fun home] it can hinder their chances of winning [see 2015 featured actress in a musical] with split votes and things. The Hamilton actor I see as most likely to win their category is Renee Elise Goldsberry because her role is slightly larger than a purely featured actress, and the talent required to deliver the role successfully is great [and present]. We /may/ see Jasmine Cephas Jones get a nod[ not unlike, but with slightly more purpose than that of Emily Skeggs] , but that all depends on the competition. David Diggs is very likely to get a nomination if not win, because his role is crafted as a standard featured actor role, but he has very entertaining characters to play.

In terms of score, if there is a sixth score [possibly tuck everlasting] that is worthy, Allegiance will not get a nod there.

I imagine bart will get a nod for Fiddler.

While I am not too informed on The Color Purple, I have heard Cynthia Erivo sing, and I can't imagine her not getting a nomination [and I think the Color Purple will be included in other categories as well]

Lastly, there is still a slew of shows that have yet to open, and decisions need to be made on categories and placement of shows and actors, so while Hamilton is going to basically be having a cast party at these press events, there is a lot to see. [additionally other awards shows will be interesting as hamilton is out of the running due to previous eligibility [and since there is no "hamilton" running off broadway, the stage will be clear for shows that might not get recognition otherwise] ]

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 03:09 AM

#18

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 7:40am

Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock
Waitress

Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening
Fiddler On The Roof

POSSIBLY: Shuffle Along

Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Danny Burstein - Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton

Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo - Color Purple
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton

Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton/ANOTHER PERSON
Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along (or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed)

Featured Actress in a Musical:
Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson - Color Purple
Lesli Margarita - Dames At Sea

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 07:40 AM

#19

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 7:49am

From the shows this season that have opened so far (including off-Broadway shows that will be transferring in the spring), here's what I think has good chances of getting nominated:

Best Musical:
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical

Best Play:
Eclipsed-Danai Gurira
The Humans-Stephen Karam
King Charles III-Mike Bartlett

Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Spring Awakening

Best Revival of a Play:
A View From the Bridge

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock: The Musical
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Reed Birney-The Humans
Tim Pigott-Smith-King Charles III
Mark Strong-A View From the Bridge

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annaleigh Ashford-Sylvia
Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans
Laurie Metcalf-Misery
Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Richard Goulding-King Charles III

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Phoebe Fox-A View From the Bridge
Nicola Walker-A View From the Bridge
Lydia Wilson-King Charles III

Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Direction of a Play:
Rupert Goold-King Charles III
Joe Mantello-The Humans
Liesl Tommy-Eclipsed
Ivo van Hove-A View From the Bridge

Best Original Score:
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock: The Musical-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater

Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris
School of Rock: The Musical-Julian Fellowes

Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
JoAnn M. Hunter-School of Rock: The Musical
Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening
Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!

Best Orchestrations:
Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple
Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton
Andrew Lloyd Webber-School of Rock: The Musical

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Howell Binkley-Hamilton
Jane Cox-The Color Purple
Donald Holder-Fiddler on the Roof
Natasha Katz-School of Rock: The Musical
Kenneth Posner-On Your Feet!

Best Lighting Design of a Play:
Jon Clark-King Charles III
Jennifer Schriever-Eclipsed
Justin Townsend-The Humans
Jan Versweyveld-A View From the Bridge

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
John Doyle-The Color Purple
David Korins-Hamilton
Michael Yeargan-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Scenic Design of a Play:
Beowulf Boritt-Therese Raquin
David Korins-Misery
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
Tom Scutt-King Charles III
David Zinn-The Humans

Best Costume Design of a Musical:
ESosa-On Your Feet!
Ann Hould-Ward-The Color Purple
Paul Tazewell-Hamilton
Catherine Zuber-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Costume Design of a Play:
Jane Greenwood-Therese Raquin
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed

#20

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 8:57am

I agree that Jennifer Hudson and Danielle Brooks will almost certainly both be nominated, just as the originals were both nominated in 2006.

#21

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 9:27am

Just curious, Jeffrey. Based on your running tabulations of shows that have opened but not giving consideration yet to those that haven't (which is an interesting way to track the road to the Tonys), do you see On Your Feet being the musical that most likely exits a number of those lists when these newer shows do open?

I could see it getting some nods anyway, simply because they might want to give a little something of an acknowledgment to Broadway newbies, the Estefans.

But is the show good enough, overall, to merit keeping out the likes of American Psycho, Waitress, Shuffle Along (if it's deemed a new musical), Tuck Everlasting, etc. just to acknowledge the Estefans? There seems to be several strong contenders on their way to Broadway which could change up the predictions.

I'll be in NY in March and, while I love Estefan and MSM music, I'm taking a pass on this one. Some of the clips I've seen just don't look interesting enough to me (even despite my love for their music).

The dancing is, of course, good. And the music is, well, MSM/Estefan music, so it's great as well. But I've heard mixed reactions to the book and the story itself. It seems like the entertainment value deemed by audiences is mostly in the music and dance, but when it gets back to the story it becomes more "meh." And since I've seen a couple of their concerts, I've heard their music and seen the dance that goes along with it. Which is why I'm opting for some of the newer musicals/classic revivals when it comes to my visit: Hamilton, Shuffle Along, American Psycho, She Loves Me, Fiddler on the Roof and (if time) The King and I or Waitress. I wonder where it will stand come Tony time.

This is another strong season! With a lot of big name contenders.

#22

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 9:39am

Yes, we do have other new musicals coming in this season like:

American Psycho
Bright Star
Disaster!
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress

Most of them do have potential, but it's only a matter of how they live up to their potential. Sure, they've all played in front of audiences before, but we don't even know how they'll end up being modified for Broadway yet.

Also keep in mind that a fifth nominee for Best Musical is still possible only if it can receive three votes or less behind the fourth nominee.

In regards to On Your Feet!'s book getting nominated, Beautiful's book had mixed reactions as well, so did An American in Paris, and they were both nominated.

#23

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 9:44am

This gave me a laugh.

"Best Play:
China Doll"

Carry on with your delusions!

#24

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 9:52am

I really think American Psycho is being underestimated. Will it win against Hamilton? No. Will it be an entertaining night of theater with dynamic performances and music? Yes. I'm looking forward to that one and am hoping it lives up to my expectations. Wonder when the full cast will be announced.

Having seen Disaster off-Broadway, I cannot see it getting any nominations other than a supporting one for Jennifer Simard. That's the reason she's being brought over from the original (everyone else has been replaced by bigger names). However, the supporting actress in a musical category is looking pretty fierce, so I don't see it happening.

#25

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 12/29/15 at 10:17am

George Takei will not be getting a nomination. He is a featured actor, with no songs. He is there because it is his story, his passion project, and his character is cute and sweet, but when you have a possible?

Bob Martin says hi.

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