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#51

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 9:15pm

Best Musical:
Hamilton
American Psycho
School of Rock: The Musical
Waitress

Best Play:
Eclipsed-Danai Gurira
The Humans-Stephen Karam
King Charles III-Mike Bartlett
 

Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Spring Awakening
 

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock: The Musical
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
 

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Jessie Mueller-Waitress

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annaleigh Ashford-Sylvia
Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans
Laurie Metcalf-Misery
Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed
 

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Adam Kantor-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea

 

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Robert Sella-Sylvia

Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Original Score:
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock: The Musical-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Waitress- Sarah Barreillis

Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris
School of Rock: The Musical-Julian Fellowes
 

Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
 

Best Orchestrations:
Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple
Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton
Andrew Lloyd Webber-School of Rock: The Musical
 

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Howell Binkley-Hamilton
Jane Cox-The Color Purple
Natasha Katz-School of Rock: The Musical
Kenneth Posner-On Your Feet!

#52

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 9:51pm

Littleshopofcarrie said:

"Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Jessie Mueller-Waitress"

 

I think Erivo, Soo, and Mueller are locks—but I do think that Villafañe will get edged out by both Audra and Benanti, and those five will comprise the lead actress nominations. Just my two cents!

#53

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 10:15pm

Hamilton22 said: "Anyhow, The only person in Hamilton that has a great shot at winning is Renee. But even she isn't a lock to win with the Color Purple girls getting incredible reviews. Hamilton could very well go home empty handed in all the acting categories. 

 

"

if Danielle Brooks and J. Hud are both nominated for Best Supporting Actress they may well split the vote just like how the Fun Home girls did last year, paving the way for Renee (or whoever else is nominated in that category)

The thing is, besides being an utter toad of a human being, Riedel usually has the least knowledge of the topic in the room. He doesn't usually understand the content or approach of a show, and is always completely and unfailingly socially ignorant, which makes it really infuriating when Susan can't get a word in edgewise. A definitive mansplainer; it's always painful when he has female guests. I watch the show sporadically when I really want to see a guest, because it's the only theatre talkshow we have, but it would be so much better without this hateful clown in a dadcoat. (thanks ScaryWarhol)
#55

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 10:53pm

I think Erivo, Soo, and Mueller are locks—but I do think that Villafañe will get edged out by both Audra and Benanti, and those five will comprise the lead actress nominations.

 

Please keep in mind that if there is a tie in the nominating process, the number of nominees can be expanded.

#56

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 11:01pm

Has everybody forgotten about Alice Ripley and Jane Krakowski?? I know their shows (American Psycho and She Loves Me, respectively) aren't going to be in previews until March/February (respectively), but they are both amazing actresses who I think are shoe-ins. There is no doubt in my brain that Renée will win, but it would be a shocker if Jane or Alice won. Hypothetically though, Jane is more likely to win than Alice IMHO. 

#57

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 11:07pm

My predictions for Actresses in a Musical:

 

Leading Actress in a Musical

Laura Benanti (She Loves Me)

Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple) [predicted win]

Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along)

Jessie Mueller (Waitress)

Phillipa Soo (Hamilton)

 

Featured Actress in a Musical

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

Renée Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton) [I will give my right nut if she doesn't win]

Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple)

Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me)

Alice Ripley (American Psycho)

 

I feel pretty confident about these predictions, though Featured could get snagged in by Lesli, or some other unprecedented spring performance like a Carolee Carmello or the like.

#58

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/5/16 at 11:16pm

Has everybody forgotten about Alice Ripley and Jane Krakowski?? I know their shows (American Psycho and She Loves Me, respectively) aren't going to be in previews until March/February (respectively), but they are both amazing actresses who I think are shoe-ins.

 

We don't even know how much of an impression Alice Ripley will end up making in American Psycho yet.

#59

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 7:42am

I haven't seen a list of eligible shows yet. This is what I have. Am I missing any that have opened/been announced?  This doesn't include the magic shows or Paramour although I suppose they're technically eligible. 

 

New Musicals

Amazing Grace

Hamilton

On Your Feet

Allegiance

School of Rock

Disaster

Bright Star

American Psycho

Waitress

Tuck Everlasting

Shuffle Along (unless it's considered a revival)

 

Revival of a Musical

Spring Awakening

Dames at Sea

The Color Purple

Fiddler on the Roof

She Loves Me

 

New Play

Act of God

Therese Raquin

King Charles III

Misery

China Doll

Our Mother's Brief Affair

The Humans

Eclipsed

Blackbird

The Father 

 

Revival of a Play

Old Times

Fool for Love

View from the Bridge

Noises Off

Hughie

The Crucible

Fully Committed (or is this considered new?)

Long Days Journey Into Night

#60

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 9:57am

god  help us if Lesli's annoying acting and clarion voice gets nominated..

The thing is, besides being an utter toad of a human being, Riedel usually has the least knowledge of the topic in the room. He doesn't usually understand the content or approach of a show, and is always completely and unfailingly socially ignorant, which makes it really infuriating when Susan can't get a word in edgewise. A definitive mansplainer; it's always painful when he has female guests. I watch the show sporadically when I really want to see a guest, because it's the only theatre talkshow we have, but it would be so much better without this hateful clown in a dadcoat. (thanks ScaryWarhol)
#61

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 10:33am

I think everyone is forgetting the Carolee Carmello's performance as Ma Tuck in Tuck Everlasting. Although I did not personally see its out of town tryout, I have heard mixed things, but nothing but raves for Ms Carmello.  Although Renne is probably gives the stand out performance of Hamilton ensemble (I say ensemble because the characters outside of King George III blend together into very munch an enseble piece in my opinion), Ms. Carmello is an unsung hero among the Broadway community and I could see that working in her favor.

 

Also there is no way the Featured Actor In A Musical Catagory will be dominated by Hamilton, or even have a nominee from Hamilton. Diaster!, Tuck Everlasting, Waitress, Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (They seriously need to shorten that Title), all being filled with Broadways favorite supporting players, and then there is the Spring Awakening, and the Alliegance where George Takai will no doubt be rewarded for  his dedication to the piece. 

But back to  Diaster!, Tuck Everlasting, Waitress, Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed, the following actors from those casts are prior Tony Nominees or Winners:

Disaster!

  • Kevin Chamberlan 3 time Tony Nominee (Dirty Blond, Suessical, The Addams Family)

  • Manoel Felciano Tony Nominee (Sweeney Todd)

  • Adam Pascal Tony Nominee (Rent)

  • Seth Rudetsky (just because of everything hes done for Broadway)

Waitress

  • Christopher Fitgerald 2 Time Tony Nominee (Young Frankenstein, Finian's Rainbow)

Tuck Everlasting

  • Terrance Mann 3 Time Tony Nominee (Pippin, Beauty and the Beast, Les Miz)

Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed

  • Brandon Victor Dixon  Tony Nominee (The Color Purple)
  • Joshua Henry 2 Time Tony Nominee (The Soottsboro Boys, Violet)
  • Brooks Ashmanskas Tony Nominee (Martin Short: Fame Becomes Me)
  • Billy Porter Tony Winner (Kinky Boots)
  • Brian Stokes Mitchell Tony Winner and 3 additional nominations (Kiss Me, Kate, Ragtime, King Hedly II, Man of La Mancha)

This List does not even include the long list of unnominated Broadway favorites that are in these shows. All of the Spring productions have to flop harder than Moose Murders for the nominating committee to go out of their way to nominte anyone other than Jonathan Groff (Who in my opinion is Hamilton's best chance for an Acting win, as the role is built to stop the show).

Updated On: 1/6/16 at 10:33 AM

#62

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 10:40am

I'm sorry, I can't have an actual intelligent conversation against the argument that performers in Disaster! might take nomination slots away from performers in Hamilton. It's ridiculous. 

#63

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 10:43am

I personally didn't care for the character of Henry VI in Hamilton. A bit pale and dead in the eyes. Almost like he had been dead for 300 years by the time the show was set. 

#65

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 12:44pm

I'm surprised at how few people are predicting Ana Villafane will get nominated.

A little swash, a bit of buckle - you'll love it more than bread.
#66

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 2:00pm

Sorry I get my Brittish Monarch's confused. I meant George III and not Henry VI, I went to an American public school.

I do stand by my belief that Hamilton will most certainly not flood the Featured Actor in a Musical Catagory. I was not saying that I think Diaster!'s cast will be heavily favored either, I am just pointing out there is a huge talent featured actor talent pool. 

I also don't think Lin Manuel Miranda will be double nominated again in both Best Leading Actor and Best Score. Leslie Odom Jr is definitley the better performance, to the point where Brantley's rereview of the production for Miranda's stand by Javier Munoz read as if the audience at Munoz's performances were lucky they weren't seeing Miranda. This is in combination with the strong catagory this year with Danny Burstein's Fiddler, Ben Walker in American Psycho, Alex Brightman in School of Rock, Telly Leung in Allegiance, and we have no idea how Zachary Levi is going to be in She Loves Me.

 

#67

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 2:03pm

bdn223 said: "Sorry I get my Brittish Monarch's confused. I meant George III and not Henry VI, I went to an American public school."

 

I'm sorry you're so flip about not knowing who the reigning monarch was during the American Revolution.

When I see the phrase "the ____ estate", I imagine a vast mansion in the country full of monocled men and high-collared women receiving letters about productions across the country and doing spit-takes at whatever they contain. -Kad
#68

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 2:44pm

bdn223 said: "I also don't think Lin Manuel Miranda will be double nominated again in both Best Leading Actor and Best Score."

 

I think you have negative knowledge of what you're talking about.

#69

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 10:06pm

LOL @ George Takei being nominated for a Best Supporting Actor. what a waste of a slot if that actually happens. 

The thing is, besides being an utter toad of a human being, Riedel usually has the least knowledge of the topic in the room. He doesn't usually understand the content or approach of a show, and is always completely and unfailingly socially ignorant, which makes it really infuriating when Susan can't get a word in edgewise. A definitive mansplainer; it's always painful when he has female guests. I watch the show sporadically when I really want to see a guest, because it's the only theatre talkshow we have, but it would be so much better without this hateful clown in a dadcoat. (thanks ScaryWarhol)
#70

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/6/16 at 11:14pm

LOL@ bdn223 if he actually believes at least Daveed Diggs won't be nominated (and probably win)

 

Also I think Miranda will certainly be double nominated (score and book and should win both), if not triple...I don't think he'll win Best Actor but I think he stands a hell of a chance of getting nominated.

"Contentment, it seems, simply happens. It appears accompanied by no bravos and no tears."

Updated On: 1/6/16 at 11:14 PM

#71

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/7/16 at 6:38am

I hope Hamilton doesn't win for book. it doesn't have one!! It's sung through! Although Les Miserables won for book back in the day....

#72

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/7/16 at 6:50am

woeisme3 said: "I hope Hamilton doesn't win for book. it doesn't have one!!"

 

That is entirely incorrect. Just because a musical is sung-through doesn't mean it doesn't have a book. The book-writer's job is not only to write to the words said by the characters (which Lin-Manuel actually did do, but through the lyrics). Their job is to construct the story and characters: Lin-Manuel decided which elements of Hamilton's life to include, where the narrative began, where it ended, which characters to include, what their personality traits were, which events are in act 1 vs. act 2, whose points of view are represented, which narrative themes to include and focus on, etc. etc. etc. All of those things are the job of a book-writer, and all of those things make up Hamilton's book. It just so happens that it's done entirely through the lyrics. 

 

So not only does Hamilton have a book, but it actually has a very strong book, well-deserving of the Tony award it will probably receive. 

Updated On: 1/7/16 at 06:50 AM

#73

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 1/7/16 at 7:17am

Hamilton's book is extremely in depth, has great themes and has so many layers to it it is astounding. In summary, it should (will) win.

I appoligise for any spelling mistakes. I may be on my mobile. Clumsy fingers and small little touchscreen keys don't mixx. I try to spellcheck, but I may miss something.
#74

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 2/5/16 at 4:25pm

Time has passed, I have seen more, and my predictions have changed. I fully regret putting China Doll as a nomination, Wow. Here's what I see as of now, numbered from best chance of winning to least.

Tony Nomination Predictions 2016

Best Musical

  1. Hamilton
  2. Waitress
  3. School of Rock 
  4. American Psycho
  5. (Possible 5th Nomination) ON YOUR FEET!

Best Revival of A Musical

  1. Shuffle Along
  2. The Color Purple
  3. Fiddler on the Roof
  4. Spring Awakening

Best Play

  1. King Charles III 
  2. The Humans
  3. Eclipsed
  4. Fool For Love

Best Revival of A Play

  1. A View From The Bridge
  2. The Crucible
  3. Long Day's Journey Into Night
  4. Blackbird

Best Actor (Musical)

  1. Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton) 
  2. Danny Burstein (Fiddler)
  3. Benjamin Walker (American Psycho)
  4. Lin Manuel-Miranda (Hamilton)
  5. Alex Brightman (School of Rock)

Best Actor (Play)

  1. Mark Strong (A View From The Bridge) 
  2. Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III)
  3. Reed Birney (The Humans)
  4. Forest Whitaker (Hughie)
  5. Ben Whishaw (The Crucible) 

Best Actress (Musical)

  1.  Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple)
  2.  Jessie Mueller (Waitress) 
  3. Laura Benanti (She Loves Me)
  4. Philippa Soo (Hamilton)
  5. Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along) 

Best Actress (Play) 

  1. Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia)
  2. Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
  3. Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)
  4. Laurie Metcalf (Misery)
  5. Keira Knightley (Therese Raquin)

Best Supporting Actor (Musical)

  1. Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)
  2. Daveed Diggs (Hamilton) 
  3. Jonathan Groff (Hamilton) 
  4. Billy Porter (Shuffle Along)
  5. Isaiah Johnson (The Color Purple)

Best Supporting Actor (Play)

  1. Michael Shannon (Long Day's)
  2. John Gallagher Jr. (Long Day’s)
  3.  Richard Goulding (King Richard III)
  4. Ciaran Hinds (The Crucible)
  5. Robert Sella (Sylvia)

Best Supporting Actress (Musical)

  1. Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton) 
  2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
  3. Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me) 
  4. Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple)
  5. Lesli Margherita (Dames At Sea)

Best Supporting Actress (Play) 

  1. Saoirse Ronan (The Crucible)
  2. Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed)
  3. Lydia Wilson (King Charles III)
  4. Nicola Walker (A View From The Bridge)
  5. Megan Hilty (Noises Off)

Best Book of A Musical 

  1. Hamilton 
  2. American Psycho
  3. Tuck Everlasting
  4. Waitress

Best Score Of A Musical

  1. Hamilton
  2. Waitress
  3. American Psycho
  4. School of Rock
#75

Tony Nomination Predictions 2015/16

Posted: 2/5/16 at 4:50pm

What do you think is the likelyhood of any of the School of Rock kids like Brandon Niederauer being nominated? All of the reviews I read praise their performances as well as Alex Brightmens. The Tonys seem to love children in major  roles and these are required  to play musical instruments very well. 

Updated On: 2/5/16 at 04:50 PM

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