Tony nominees for Lead in a play

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 2:48pm

After last year being a particularly strong year for musicals, the pendulum seems to have swung back towards plays this year. We seem to have a lion's share of potential acting nominees across the board.

Best Actor:

Likely locks:

• John Lithgow - Giant
• Mark Strong - Oedipus

Possibe with the right campaign

• Will Harrison - Punch 
• Alex Winter - Waiting for Godot

Upcoming - depends on reviews and/or box office

• Daniel Radcliffe - Every Brilliant Thing
• Don Cheadle - Proof
• Jon Bernthal - Dog Day Afternoon
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach - Dog Day Afternoon
• Namir Smallwood - Bug

Depends on Category Placement:

• Micah Stock - Little Bear Ridge Road
• Carl Clemons-Hopkins - The Balusters
• Cedric the Entertainer - Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Actress:

Likely locks:

• Leslie Manville - Oedipus 
• Laurie Metcalf - Little Bear Ridge Road 

Possible with the right campaign 

• Jean Smart - Call Me Izzy

Upcoming - depends on reviews and/or Box Office:

• Ayo Edibiri - Proof
• Taraji P. Henson - Joe Turner's Come and Gone
• Carrie Coon - Bug
• June Squibb - Marjorie Prime
• Rose Byrne - Fallen Angels
• Kelli O'Hara - Fallen Angels

Depends on casting and/or category placement

• Betsy Aidem - Liberation
• Susannah Flood - Liberation
• Renée Elise Goldsberry - The Balusters
• Becky Shaw

Then there are the Featured categories which could be even more wide open. Sure, a lot of pundits are saying the final winners in each Lead might be pretty much set, but in those cases knowing who is getting the final win vote might lead the voters to be more unconventional in the other nominees.

Updated On: 11/14/25 at 02:48 PM

[walnutoraroach]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:06pm

Agree with your locks. I'd imagine Daniel Radcliffe will be extremely likely to get a nod too.

For Best Actor, Micah Stock will absolutely be eligible and I'd imagine will have a better chance than Will Harrison (or Alex Winter, who probably doesn't have a shot). James Corden would also be eligible given Alfred Molina's nomination in this category for the same role — I think he's the only nomination that Art can hope for at this point. 

For Best Actress, Susannah Flood will almost certainly be eligible here (and honestly I'd vote for her at this early point in the season, even over Leslie Manville and Laurie Metcalf, I think) and Betsy Aidem will be eligible for featured. 

Updated On: 11/14/25 at 03:06 PM

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:15pm

Ah right, I forgot about Radcliffe! He's probably going to be in my final predictions for a nomination.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:18pm

Even with closure, Harrison's performance is memorable as a lock for us.  He led that show from top to bottom.

Updated On: 11/14/25 at 03:18 PM

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:22pm

CoffeeBreak said: "Even with closure, Harrison's performance is memorable as a lock for us. He led that show from top to bottom."

He's probably the one I hope most doesn't get left behind. In a season filled with stars and veterans with heavyweight material, it'd be nice to see a true star-making performance like his recognized.

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:23pm

Yeah, Stock is above the title, and I doubt he would want to petition for Featured anyway or they would grant it if he did. That placement's solid.

https://playbill.com/production/little-bear-ridge-road-broadway-booth-theatre-2025

[walnutoraroach]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:43pm

Oh, and Don Cheadle's role was previously nominated as Featured in Proof. He's clearly going to be above the title, but, as far as I remember the play, I think Lead is a big stretch (and he has much better chance of getting in for featured). Based on past nominations, I think Joe Turner's Come and Gone may shake out as all Featured roles too. 

I think Will Harrison's path is narrow but possible: Mark Strong and John Lithgow are both doing extraordinary work in pieces that are not ensemble-focused like Punch is, and Tonys love solo performances (and, as of very recently and belatedly, Daniel Radcliffe specifically). I think Harrison could get by all the Art and Godot guys if there's some general fatigue about nominating Corden, but Namir Smallwood's Steppenwolf reception for Bug suggests he's a really likely contender. That would leave one slot so it'll depend on how Dog Day Afternoon is and whether anything else gets announced for the spring.

[quizking101]

Posted: 11/14/25 at 3:57pm

ACTOR:

- Strong and Lithgow are assured locks.

- Corden got great reviews in an otherwise mixed production and his hallmark is a 12-minute monologue as opposed to the stamina-testing performances of Stock & Harrison. Odds are grim.

- Stock is above the title, and the great reviews for him and LBBR bode well for his chances.

- Will Harrison would need to be petitioned up by MTC since the entire cast is below the title, but I would LOVE for him to get a nomination because that is a beast of a role he pulled off.

- GODOT has no shot. Historically, the only nominated performance from any production was John Glover as Lucky in 2009 and the lukewarm reviews for this revival will sink it in  a crowded field.

- The UPCOMING list poses quite a few spoilers. I think Namir Smallwood might be a safe bet since Steppenwolf is really sending their best and brightest to NYC this season. I think Eberbach might be petitioned down to featured.

ACTRESS:

I think regardless of how we slice this, it’s going to ultimately end up being a boxing match between Metcalf and Manville, and since their shows both close on the same day, neither will have a recency bias advantage. I also think June Squibb will make her way in - barring a terrible performance, since they will likely want to reward her stamina to perform a leading role at 96 (breaking all records). 

- LIBERATION’s ladies will all be featured unless they petition Flood up to lead. (Aidem and Davion are looking strong for Featured)

- Jean Smart is a coin toss. The play wasn’t memorable at all and her absences due to injury may have hurt her, but she was very good.

- Much like Smallwood, Steppenwolf sending out Coon (a previous nominee and current HBO darling) for BUG bodes well. 

- The Spring performances are really going to have to bring some thunder this year if they want in, since just being a marquee name isn’t going to cut it, and that may hurt Edibiri, Henson - neither known for stage experience.