Predicted wins in bold, potential spoiler wins in italics.
Best Play
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed
Megan Hilty, Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
David Zinn, The Humans
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Michael Krass, Noises Off
Clint Ramos, Eclipsed
Tom Scutt, King Charles III
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
I think the Play categories are really tough to predict this year, due to a high quality of work overall and there not being any clear frontrunner in most of the categories (especially performance). I feel may be underestimating how much voters like Eclipsed, which did well with nominators and seems well-liked. There is a sense of Houdyshell and Birney being "due" for award recognition, both being historically very dependable and well-liked and in roles that people would feel good rewarding.
Lead Actor and Actress in a play, I'm not sure. Lange has certainly made a massive career comeback and is delivering a respected performance. Lupita is young, glamorous, and chose this new play as her major starring role post-Oscar win. I think it's between them. Okonedo's performance has been divisive, and Williams and Metcalfe should be happy with their nominations.
As for Actor- I am really not sure, even of my prediction of Mark Strong. But I do think Strong and Byrne are the frontrunners. Langella is in a play that doesn't seem to have much popularity or traction; Daniels is dependable but this isn't a Tony win; and Pigott-Smith is in a play now long closed and seems to have dropped out of much discussion.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."