There still are a lot of shows still to come, but I do think John Lloyd Young stands a good shot at the Tony, even over Cerveris. Cerveris received very good reviews, but I think Young got breakout notices. Cerveris also won a Tony for Assassins fairly recently, so that will work against him, whereas the voters may want to award Young for being a newcomer, as well as the charismatic center of a show that took everyone by surprise.
Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.