Interesting to see Michael Arden - a likely acting nominee had Hunchback transferred to Broadway - emerge as an early frontrunner for directing.
Is Phillipa Soo really a lead in Hamilton? I haven't seen the show yet (have tickets for the end of the Summer) so I'm just curious to know where I should consider her.
Lead Actress in a Musical is really looking like a bloodbath this year - Benanti, Erivo, McDonald, Mueller, Salonga and Soo are the only sure contenders right now, but there are many looming on the horizon. There will be some heat surrounding whoever gets cast in Dames at Sea, Sutton Foster could potentially become a factor if The Wild Party transfers, Megan Hilty has something coming up that is just a matter of being announced and there are still plenty of tryouts looking to transfer.
I'm not incredibly confident in the upcoming Fiddler revival. It obviously has the team of Sher + Burstein going for it, and Sher's track record with musical revivals speaks for itself. But it's important to note that this revival is much different from Sher's previous revivals. Up until now, they have been shows that were due for Broadway revivals (in South Pacific's case, very due) and that there was high interest in seeing again. Fiddler doesn't necessarily have that, since the most recent revival closed less than 10 years ago. Additionally, this is Sher's first commercial revival, as the last two were non-for-profit. This is in conjunction with being in one of Broadway's largest houses (his last two were in a relatively smaller one). I do think the show will be an artistic triumph, but may struggle financially.