Way too early 2016 Tony predictions- Page 3

[Actriz2]

Posted: 7/5/15 at 6:29pm

^Both of the "younger show" revivals will be successful for other reasons (Spring Awakening's huge fanbase and likely word of mouth, Color Purple has Jennifer Hudson). The last Fiddler revival probably would have had a much shorter run without Harvey Fierstein.

I doubt it will perform like On the Town and I could certainly see it make back its running cost weekly, but I don't see it selling out like South Pacific and King and I, I think it will struggle to recoup and we will see discount codes pop up sooner rather than later.

Also, being one of the most famous musicals ever does not a long/successful run guarantee. My guess is that Fiddler will perform similarly to 2005's Sweeney Todd, which fared well financially (in relation to its low running costs) but never sold out and closed a year or so after opening. Sweeney managed to recoup because of the small investment, I would imagine Fiddler's is much larger.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/5/15 at 6:52pm

Fiddler is a non-profit feeling show in a commercial environment. I have already heard some of the usual suspects say that they don't need to see it again, and that is bad news for Fiddler since that is its base. Of course, all that could change if the reviews say it knocks it out of the park, but we will have to wait and see on that.

[gypsy101]

Posted: 7/5/15 at 8:21pm

"Pinto was correct on Mitchell - it's Sergio Trujillo who is choreographing On Your Feet."

 I immediately thought "wow, first time he's ever been correct!"

"But hey, it's not the first time a meatier role beat the flashier role. Mary Martin won for The Sound of Music over Ethel Merman in Gypsy..."

This literally made me laugh out loud. Mary winning for Maria over Ethel as Rose is a joke. I don't think there is a meatier role in all musical theater as Rose.

Updated On: 7/5/15 at 08:21 PM

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 7/5/15 at 9:28pm

what are you talking about? I am right almost all of the time except you only remember the wrong and not the right

[MNC77]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 12:27am

For Allegiance acting noms, isn't George Takei featured and Telly Leung lead? Or have there been a lot of changes since the San Diego production?

Also do you think Audra having won so much will be detrimental to her this year? As much as I love Audra I don't want to see her win again so soon, purely to let other talent be recognized.

[vfd88]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 12:52am

I think it's very interesting that a lot of people are predicting Hamilton to win everything, but Michael Arden to win Director. I just don't see how a show could potentially win Musical, Score, Book, and up to three acting awards (all of which I could see happening) and not Best Director.

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 1:02am

I think it is highly unlikely Kail will not win. And it is highly unlikely that Arden will win for a show that, if it even opens, will likely be long closed by the time of the Tonys, but some people are having a good time predicting anyway.

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 1:37am

lol Hogan, so since you're talented at seeing which shows will make it out or not (like saying Heidi Chronicles and Living on Love were the 2 plays that didn't make sense to you), which musicals of the fall do you think will be long gone come tony time?

The Color Purple, On Your Feet, Amazing Grace, Hamilton, Allegiance, School of Rock, Dames at Sea, Fiddler on the Roof, Spring Awakening.

[Crazy NooNooHead]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 2:57am

Audra.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 10:42am

Here are my thoughts.

The Color Purple-how long is JHud contracted for? 

On Your Feet-TBD but I am not optimistic

Amazing Grace-gone NLT New Years and likely before

Hamilton-duh

Allegiance-gone NLT New Years and likely before

School of Rock-I think it'll be here

Dames at Sea-TBD but I doubt it. We don't know enough except that it is in the hands of people who don't engender confidence

Fiddler on the Roof-TBD, depends on reviews

Spring Awakening-let's see if they lock in a theatre before we start predicting but if they were to open as rumored, I think the theatre will probably be available for someone else in time for the Tony cutoff

So I think we will have perhaps 4-5 left, which would be a lot especially when you consider the posture of shows that are waiting for these shows to close.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 10:57am

^Why are we taking potential box office numbers into account? The nominators are just going to nominate whatever they'll like best this season. Even if a show is closed, it'll just have to be about the memories the nominators even have of them.

Updated On: 7/6/15 at 10:57 AM

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 11:01am

Well usually for an open ended run. Principals are contracted for a full year. And considering Most of said shows are opening in NOV or DEC I'm sure they will be pulling to stay open for the TONY season. 

 

[broadwayindie]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 11:10am

I just saw On Your Feet! and Andrea Burns (at the very least) should be nominated for best Featured Actress. She had one of the most memorable performances.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 1:14pm

Jeffrey,

Past experience tells us that the nominations skew against shows that are closed, especially when they closed because no one cared to see them and the reviews did not favor them. That said, I was not asked about what would be nominated but simply "which musicals of the fall [I] think will be long gone come tony time."

Broadwaystar2,

I assume, but do not know, that JHud is contracted through the Tonys. That's why I said what I said. My real point is that the show's fortunes are inextricably tied to her being in it. It is worth noting that, although the lead producer has vast experience as a producer, this is his first time as the lead. First-timers often do imprudent things like taking JHud for as long as she is willing to commit. It's not like she doesn't have other more remunerative and less exhausting opportunities.

 

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 7/6/15 at 3:08pm

ohhh i really really hope Allegiance survives. It looks like such a great show. I am also looking forward to Amazing Grace despite some peoples opinions about it so far.

[MNC77]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 11:50am

After what happened to the Fun Home girls this year, do you think there's a chance that the Hamilton boys might split the vote? If David and Leslie both score a nomination, they might split the vote and open it up for someone like Gavin Creel.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 3:10pm

Splitting the vote doesn't always happen.

Past examples include:

1977
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Dorothy Loudon-Annie
Andrea McArdle-Annie

1987
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Judy Kuhn-Les Miserables
Frances Ruffle-Les Miserables

2001
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Matthew Broderick-The Producers
Nathan Lane-The Producers

Featured Actor in a Musical:
Roger Bart-The Producers
Gary Beach-The Producers
Brad Oscar-The Producers

2003
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Dick Latessa-Hairspray
Corey Reynolds-Hairspray

Featured Actress in a Musical:
Jane Krakowski-Nine
Mary Stuart Masterson-Nine
Chita Rivera-Nine

2004
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Kristin Chenoweth-Wicked
Idina Menzel-Wicked

Featured Actor in a Musical:
Michael Cerveris-Assassins
Denis O'Hare-Assassins

2005
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Norbert Leo Butz-Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
John Lithgow-Dirty Rotten Scoundrels

2009
Leading Actress in a Play:
Hope Davis-God of Carnage
Marcia Gay Harden-God of Carnage

Featured Actor in a Musical:
David Bologna-Billy Elliot
Gregory Jbara-Billy Elliot

2010
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Kelsey Grammer-La Cage aux Folles
Douglas Hodge-La Cage aux Folles

Featured Actress in a Play:
Jessica Hecht-A View from the Bridge
Scarlett Johansson-A View from the Bridge

2013
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Billy Porter-Kinky Boots
Stark Sands-Kinky Boots

2014
Featured Actor in a Play:
Paul Chahidi-Twelfth Night
Stephen Fry-Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance-Twelfth Night

Featured Actress in a Play:
Sophie Okonedo-A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose-A Raisin in the Sun

2015
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christian Borle-Something Rotten!
Brad Oscar-Something Rotten!

Updated On: 7/16/15 at 03:10 PM

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 3:49pm

you can also add Audras win for Raisin in 2004 as well

[little_sally]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 3:58pm

I really don't understand the split the votes theory.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 7:24pm

I can't easily imagine the Committee failing to nominate Peter Bartlett's scene-stealing Headwaiter in SHE LOVES ME for featured musical actor. 

[MNC77]

Posted: 7/16/15 at 9:03pm

I know splitting the votes doesn't happen all the time, but in most of those cases one actor or actress clearly was more well liked, whereas with Hamilton there seems to be a solid mix of people who like Daveed and Leslie

[starcatchers]

Posted: 7/17/15 at 12:02am

I think Leslie Odom Jr. should/will be placed in Leading (which LMM will also be nominated for, and Odom will win), with Daveed Diggs in featured. 

[MNC77]

Posted: 7/17/15 at 12:08am

"I think Leslie Odom Jr. should/will be placed in Leading (which LMM will also be nominated for, and Odom will win), with Daveed Diggs in featured. "

 I hope so, that seems like the right move

[Falling]

Posted: 7/17/15 at 10:41am

I really think George Takei may snag the featured actor award if Leslie Odom, Jr. is correctly placed in leading and Takei is placed in featured. Takei is a popular guy and his show is a labor of love which is a significant piece in its own way-it sheds light on a particularly ugly chapter in American history that is rarely discussed in high school history classes (heck, in some college ones it isn't). It is HIS story, which gives it a very personal dimension. I do think he's got a chance. I think Odom belongs in leading anyhow. And I wonder if the voters may want to give Allegiance something-it's a very ambitious piece of theater, too. While not changing the form as drastically as Hamilton, I think its content is quite groundbreaking, too. It holds a critical mirror up to America during WWII.

My gut: Hamilton for: Musical, Book, Score, Direction, Actor (Odom) Set, Lighting, Choreography, Costumes.

The women from Hamilton have to compete with Lea Salonga and...the women from The Color Purple. (Cynthia Erivo has my pick right now for actress in a musical, and if Jennifer Hudson is petitioned to featured, she and Danielle Brooks will likely be nominated.) If Soo is placed in leading (as I suspect) she will have to overcome Erivo...and I doubt she will.

I foresee Hamilton getting a ton of nods, and about 9 wins. For the actress categories in particular I think The Color Purple can give it a run.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 7/17/15 at 10:43am

Hamilton sweeps every category.