Will Elaine Paige get her first Tony (nom)?- Page 2

[quizking101]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 9:45pm

Although it looks like FOLLIES could get a slew of FA NOMS, there are many likely candidates to whom the wealth could be spread...

If I could choose 5 from our current pool, they would be:
- Elaine Paige (FOLLIES)
- Lindsay Nicole Chambers (LYSISTRATA JONES)
- Melissa van der Schyff (BONNIE & CLYDE)
- Liz Mikel (LYSISTRATA JONES)
- Terri White (FOLLIES)

I also think it's possible for one of the girls from GODSPELL could sneak in depending on the quality of the spring candidates and the Tony people deciding to limit FOLLIES' possibilities...

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 11:49pm

While I know people on here are gaga for Follies, you have to remember that the nominating committee (not by active choice) favors shows that are currently running, ESPECIALLY in the acting categories. Don't expect to see that many nominations for Follies in the acting categories. In fact, I don't expect any of the featured women to be nominated. Follies has a way better shot in the leading categories. I would guess the nominations for featured women would go something like this:

Judy Kaye, NICE WORK...
Jessie Mueller, ON A CLEAR DAY...
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, GHOST
Jennifer Laura Thompson, NICE WORK...

And the 5th slot will go to either Lindsay Nicole Chambers or Liz Mikel if LYSISTRATA JONES is still open. If it's not, I would guess Karen Mason for REBECCA or, if NEWSIES gets raves and sweeps the nominations, Kara Lindsay.

I haven't seen ONCE yet. Are there any supporting females in that who might garner a nomination?

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 12:41am

I think FOLLIES is gonna be the show that beats that "still running" theory.
As good as Kaye and Thompson are, how can you think they will both be nominated without an inkling of the show or what they will be doing in it?
I think Mason is a strong contender from the endless clips of Danvers in all those Euro productions of REBECCA, that's a meaty role.
One of the LIZZIE JONES could get in but not both, I prefer Chambers.

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 12:46am

Actually the nominators seem to honor closed shows. In just the past two seasons - Patti LuPone, Laura Benanti, Colman Domingo, Forrest McClendon, Bobby Steggert, Christiane Noll, and Christopher Fitzgerald were all nominated for closed shows.

It's the Tony VOTERS who sadly don't vote for closed shows.

[ghostlight4]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 12:52am

Bryonha Marie Parham and NaTasha Yvette Williams both give nomination-worthy performances in PORGY & BESS. Huge ovations for each at the performance I attended.

Re: FOLLIES. White and Houdyshell seem more likely than Paige to me.

Karen Mason seems nomination-ready for REBECCA. Juicy role.

Mueller and Van der Shyff will likely sink with their shows. : (

[somethingwicked]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 1:04am

CurtainPullDowner, having seen a reading of NICE WORK... (with different women in the respective roles,) Kaye and Thompson both have very, very funny parts.

[followspot]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 1:32am

Trivia Note: In 1972, none of the original supporting FOLLIES actresses received a nomination. Nominees in the supporting/musical category that year: Linda Hopkins (winner - INNER CITY), Beatrice Winde (AIN'T SPOSE TO DIE...), Adrienne Barbeau (GREASE), and, receiving her first Tony nomination... 23-year-old Bernadette Peters (ON THE TOWN).

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:13am

Actually the nominators seem to honor closed shows. In just the past two seasons - Patti LuPone, Laura Benanti, Colman Domingo, Forrest McClendon, Bobby Steggert, Christiane Noll, and Christopher Fitzgerald were all nominated for closed shows.

But most of those people can be explained away easily. Featured women in musicals last year was a BARREN category. If there had been one more outstanding performance, Patti (as much as I loved her in Verge) would have been knocked out. Laura received the best reviews of the season, so she was getting nominated regardless.

Christiane Noll was nominated in a year where Kristin Chenoweth was PANNED for Promises Promises and Bebe was not warmly received in Addams Family. Everyone else who was eligible that year was nominated.

That was the same year Bobby Steggert and Christopher Fitzgerald were nominated for their closed shows. Again, not only did both of them receive the best reviews in that category for the season, but there also weren't a ton of options within the open shows (at least showy roles that would have caught the attention of the nominating committee... we're not talking Michael Esper in American Idiot here). The two of them actually had sizable roles and, had Million Dollar Quartet not still been open, one of them would surely have won. (Fitzgerald won the Drama Desk that year as did Benanti this past year for Verge).

As for Colman Domingo and Forrest McClendon, we all know what happened with the overkill of Scottsboro nominations last year (tied with Mormon for the most). I am STILL shocked that Joshua Henry was nominated over Benjamin Walker, Daniel Radcliffe, and Aaron Tveit. And it was nominated for SET DESIGN over shows like Bloody Bloody, Sister Act, Priscilla, and How to Succeed. That was an extreme love fest that was not typical in any sense.

I know that you listed quite a few examples ljay, so I know you and some people will say "but it still happened, so it counts for something". But I can't help but feel like rather than pointing out the rule, you've just enumerated several exceptions to the rule. I remember being SHOCKED that Kate Baldwin was nominated for Finian's because that hadn't happened in years past. I was thrilled, but still surprised. And while the supporting cast of Follies was my favorite part about this production, they didn't receive the kind of reviews that will keep them in the memory of the Tony committee come May. I think ONE of them could get a nomination, but I will be shocked (and slightly impressed) if they pull off more than that.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:17am

As good as Kaye and Thompson are, how can you think they will both be nominated without an inkling of the show or what they will be doing in it?

Because they are both Broadway veterans who have a history with the Tonys. If their parts are even SEMI decent, they will get nominated.


ghostlight4, if On A Clear Day closes by then, I agree with you. But if it's still open come May, I'd be shocked if Jessie weren't nominated. She got the best reviews of the show by far.

[bwayfan7000]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:25am

I wonder how FOLLIES playing in LA could help chances. If key cast members remain for the LA mounting and enough of a fuss is made about it come May, it could be just the push certain people need for a nomination. Also, I can't imagine Kaye AND Thompson both making it in unless the show gets fantastic reviews. Then again, I still am surprised about both LuPone and Benanti making it into the category last year, as much as I personally might have thought they deserved it. I think this all depends upon whether LYSISTRATA JONES and ON A CLEAR DAY... run through the Tonys, or at least long enough for the performances of Mikel, Chambers and Mueller to make an impression on the nominators, though I think Mueller certainly has the best chance of being remembered.

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:41am

Featured women in musicals last year was a BARREN category.

But it seems just as weak this year! Thus far.

I do thank you for reminding that Kate Baldwin and Joshua Henry were also nominated for closed shows. I honestly would not be surprised if FOLLIES is treated as this year's Scottsboro Boys by the nominators.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:43am

Also, I can't imagine Kaye AND Thompson both making it in unless the show gets fantastic reviews. Then again, I still am surprised about both LuPone and Benanti making it into the category last year, as much as I personally might have thought they deserved it.

Recent years (since the acting categories were changed to 5 nominees each) in which 2 featured men or women from the same show were nominated in the same category:
2011: Women on the Verge (2 women)/Scottsboro Boys (2 men)
2009: Billy Elliot (2 women and 2 men)
2006: The Color Purple (2 women)
2005: Spamalot (2 men)
2004: The Boy From Oz (2 women)/Assassins (2 men)
2003: Nine (3 women)/Hairspray (2 men)/Movin' Out (2 men)
2001: 42nd Street (2 women)/The Producers (3 men)/The Full Monty (2 men)
2000: Contact (2 women)/Swing (2 women)/Kiss Me, Kate (3 men)

So of the past 12 years, just over half of them (7 for both women and men) have contained nominees from the same show. In some cases, 2 sets of duplicates filled almost an entire category (or in the case of 2001 for men, an entire category). The number of shows on this list that got solely fantastic reviews is far smaller than the number of shows on the list with mixed or mostly negative reviews.



Updated On: 12/27/11 at 02:43 AM

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:47am

But it seems just as weak this year! Thus far.

You may very well be right. We'll have to see how it plays out. I just think that there are so many more brand new shows coming in this spring than there were last year. And you've got a slew of Broadway veterans in Kaye, Thompson, and Mason. And if Newsies is a huge hit, you've got the "bright new star" factor in Kara Lindsay.

I honestly would not be surprised if FOLLIES is treated as this year's Scottsboro Boys by the nominators.

I think that love fest was less about the reviews (which were quite mixed actually, moreso than Follies) and more about it probably being Kander and Ebb's last original show on Broadway (before The Visit was really on the table). I would be shocked if Follies (especially as a revival instead of an original piece) were given the same treatment.

[bwayfan7000]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 2:55am

Perhaps my trepidation in predicting both Kaye and Thompson being nominated together has more to do with the show being NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT than anything. I think they're both excellent performers who I could see being nominated for any show. And, who knows, really? The nominators have been known to do strange things. I distinctly remember being very surprised at the nomination of one of the Michaels from Billy Elliot, one of the two double nominations you listed previously, over someone like Tveit in next to normal. Anything can happen with Tony nominators...

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 3:09am

The nominators have been known to do strange things. I distinctly remember being very surprised at the nomination of one of the Michaels from Billy Elliot, one of the two double nominations you listed previously, over someone like Tveit in next to normal. Anything can happen with Tony nominators...

But that's exactly my point... in a year when there WERE other nomination options from open shows (Tveit versus Bologna for instance), the committee opted for duplicates when they didn't even have to. Some of the most well reviewed performances of the season were snubbed, and those shows were still running. I mean, I know 9 to 5 wasn't the most well reviewed show, but Kathy Fitzgerald got great reviews but lost out on a nomination to Carole Shelley for her thankless role in Billy Elliot. The year Carole Shelley should have been nominated was in 2004 for Wicked, but instead Beth Fowler was nominated for The Boy From Oz alongside a deserving Isabel Keating. You haven't even touched closed shows at that point. My whole thing is that if there are options with shows that are currently open, the committee will lean towards those. Obviously there are exceptions as ljay pointed out, but remember that in many of those cases there actually WEREN'T other options from open shows.

Updated On: 12/27/11 at 03:09 AM

[bwayfan7000]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 3:33am

You make some very good points. I learned some new things tonight! Nonetheless, I will be very curious to see how this category shakes out in light of this spring season.

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 7:46am

I just think it's safe to say Elaine will be nominated for Follies. It's been a long time coming, she deserves it and i think they can spare her a slot.

[BroadwayFan12]

Posted: 12/27/11 at 8:25am

I would love for Elaine, Terri, and Jayne to all be nominated, with Elaine winning.