I agree with the poster above me. Despite her take on the role being completely different, I think she would have won. I mean, I honestly can't see who else would have won out of that competition.
I think this is a pretty interesting question in general: What are some other Tony-winning role replacements that we think would have won if they were the original? Bernadette Peters in Night Music last year is another one, I think.
"I'm afraid this offer comes off the table... at midnight tonight."
"...maybe the worst bluff I've ever seen."
"Even the members of GOBIAS could agree on that one."