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shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

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#4

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:42am

I think Wicked and lion King is the only that has a chance. Mamma Mia will probably start to fade in a year or two. i just cant see Chicago making it(even though i love the show) Billy Elliot will last awhile but it just doesn't feel like it could last 25 years. i do believe Spiderman might hold on for quite awhile, if only to pay back that ridiculous 65mill.
#5

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:46am

While I 100% agree that these shows mentioned could run 25 years or more, I think surpassing Phantom may be an impossibility. Though its sales have slowed over it's quarter century run, Phantom still remains one of the hotter tickets on Broadway. We have to wait and see when/if Phantom closes before we can even speculate about any show surpassing it.
Wicked Tour (2/26/08); Wicked Bway (7/1/08); HAIR (7/1/09); Rock of Ages (7/2/09); Wicked Bway (7/3/09); Mary Poppins Tour (8/2/09); Wicked Tour (11/18/09); Wicked Tour (12/5/09)
#6

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:46am

Well, until Phantom actual closes, I don't think anyone could even begin to guess.
If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
#8

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 10:51am

For example: Let's say Phantom closes tomorrow....we'll have one set of thoughts based on current sales.

but if if closes in 5 years from now, we'd have an entirely different perspective of grosses upon which to base those guesses.
If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
#9

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 2:46pm

First of all, I do NOT want to even THINK about PHANTOM closing... Thank GOODNESS that does not even seem to be happening anytime soon.

Second of all, I completely agree with the sentiment that I would not even begin to speculate which show could overtake it until it DOES officially close.

WICKED and THE LION KING are the only two that come to mind to even consider. While I love both CHICAGO and BILLY ELLIOTT and do not want it to happen, the reality is they will both be gone before PHANTOM.
"TO LOVE ANOTHER PERSON IS TO SEE THE FACE OF GOD"- LES MISERABLES--- "THERE'S A SPECIAL KIND OF PEOPLE KNOWN AS SHOW PEOPLE... WE'RE BORN EVERY NIGHT AT HALF HOUR CALL!"--- CURTAINS
#10

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

Posted: 8/14/11 at 3:01pm

As long as Phantom keeps running, it will remain ahead. Phantom will not be going anywhere any time soon either. If you look at the grosses you will see the show was consistently made good money over the past few years with no significant drops.
"There’s nothing quite like the power and the passion of Broadway music. "
#12

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/14/11 at 6:11pm

Since, like others have mentioned, PHANTOM is still running and doing pretty well, it continues to break its own record. So the only way to guess what show could pass it would be to consider what shows even have the staying power.

In my opinion, only WICKED and THE LION KING have the overwhelming pull that has long surpassed "freshly opened" buzz. But who knows! Both of them may start to fizzle in just a few short years, while PHANTOM shows no sign of stopping. Like or dislike the show, that mask has become synonymous with Broadway and tourists are still willing to eat that sh*t up.
#13

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/14/11 at 6:21pm

I don't even want to contemplate a Broadway without "Chicago." from RC in Austin, Texas P.S. It's 5:20 p.m. CST and 104 F. I'm dreaming of temps in the low 70's.
"Noel [Coward] and I were in Paris once. Adjoining rooms, of course. One night, I felt mischievous, so I knocked on Noel's door, and he asked, 'Who is it?' I lowered my voice and said 'Hotel detective. Have you got a gentleman in your room?' He answered, 'Just a minute, I'll ask him.'" (Beatrice Lillie)
#15

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:20pm

When Cats closed, had the grosses been steadily declining? I don't remember the closing, but was it sudden or expected? I think of what's playing now, Wicked and The Lion King have the power to run for 20+ years. They. Have both been pretty much sold out for their entire runs (8 years and 13.) Phantom has not been consistently selling out for quite some time. That being said, I believe Wicked's weekly running costs are quite high, and I don't know how well they'd run in the (now) 2nd biggest house without high grosses. (As Phantom seems fine on 70% at $70 an average ticket.)
#16

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:44pm

Cats' grosses had been declining the last few years of its run. In 1999 (the 18th year of the run) it sold only 67.04% of its seats and grossed 52.12% of its potential. 2000 started slow but bumped up when the closing was announced and they did well through the rest of the run.

In contrast, the 18th year of Phantom's run was 2005 - the were at 93.35% capacity and 72.26% of potential gross. They're attendance has declined since then (last year it was 79.79%), but the grosses overall have remained about the same thanks to rising ticket prices ($78.33 last year, compared to $60.33 in 2005).
#18

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/15/11 at 10:37am

As others have pointed out, until Phantom closes, it is hard to say which show can beat them. Phantom consistently sells over 90% of its tickets on any given show.

A good answer might be no one.

Phantom is a classic and it will be on the top of the list for tourists. Although, I think Wicked is also a must see with tourists right now as well.

If I am not mistaken, Phantom is no longer on tour the last time I checked. Wicked continues to have a strong run on tour with 2 touring companies. So only time will tell.
Not to be confused with Dave19.

Updated On: 8/15/11 at 10:37 AM

#19

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:07am

If Phantom closes within the next year or so (which it won't), I can't really see any of the above mentioned musicals running for longer.

Show popularity eventually fades out. Jersey Boys was on TKTS this past weekend (not saying the show is no longer popular, but before you couldn't really find it on TKTS once it set off).

Phantom has luckily been able to avoid that. The thing these shows have in common, though, that allow them to run for years is that they are international hits.
"We like to snark around here. Sometimes we actually talk about theater...but we try not to let that get in our way." - dramamama611
#20

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:10am

I wouldn't be surprised if BILLY ELLIOT closed in a year or two. Say what you will, but it never really took off here like it did in London. Discounts were readily available after the first year or so of the run.
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe." -John Guare, Landscape of the Body
#21

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:40am

Wicked and Lion King are probably the likeliest if Phantom were to close in the next year or two. Book of Mormon is too topical and will become dated a bit more quickly. Billy Elliot is doing well, but so far, it hasn't had the unstoppable exposure of Wicked or Lion King. Chicago has been getting by on low overhead, discounts and stunt casting, but I don't know if it can hang on much longer. Mamma Mia and Jersey Boys will stick around for a while, but don't have the spectacle that is now required for record-breaking runs.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian
#25

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest runni

Posted: 8/15/11 at 2:35pm

As it approaches the 10,000 performance record in the U.S., I feel safe in saying that no current Broadway show or future musical will ever surpass this number. Probably none will even come close. Phantom was a unique phenomenon. Early in its run, it became the darling of the tourist, as no show before had ever done. During the run in Toronto, it attracted everyone from the Midwest who didn't really want to endure all the negative trappings of a trip to NYC. It recently topped the 10,000 mark in London. If POTO closed today in NY, Chicago would have to run about another 10 years to overtake it. Lion King - another 12 years. Mamma Mia and Wicked are way down the line. POTO will hold the "longest running musical in Broadway history" title for a long, long time, if not forever.

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