shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

[broadway guy]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:10am

shows that you think have the pontential to surpass phantom's longest running record?

i deff think :

wicked
lion king
maybe chicago
billy elliot ( ppl love this show in the US)
Mamma mia

[HistoryBoy2]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:27am

Any old ****e.

[chewy5000]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:40am

Priscilla

[theatrefreak0109]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:42am

I think Wicked and lion King is the only that has a chance. Mamma Mia will probably start to fade in a year or two. i just cant see Chicago making it(even though i love the show) Billy Elliot will last awhile but it just doesn't feel like it could last 25 years. i do believe Spiderman might hold on for quite awhile, if only to pay back that ridiculous 65mill.

[TreyKenyon]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:46am

While I 100% agree that these shows mentioned could run 25 years or more, I think surpassing Phantom may be an impossibility. Though its sales have slowed over it's quarter century run, Phantom still remains one of the hotter tickets on Broadway. We have to wait and see when/if Phantom closes before we can even speculate about any show surpassing it.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:46am

Well, until Phantom actual closes, I don't think anyone could even begin to guess.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:52am

Exactly. Before you can even begin this discussion, Phantom has to close, which isn't happening anytime soon.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 10:51am

For example: Let's say Phantom closes tomorrow....we'll have one set of thoughts based on current sales.

but if if closes in 5 years from now, we'd have an entirely different perspective of grosses upon which to base those guesses.

[EponineAmneris]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 2:46pm

First of all, I do NOT want to even THINK about PHANTOM closing... Thank GOODNESS that does not even seem to be happening anytime soon.

Second of all, I completely agree with the sentiment that I would not even begin to speculate which show could overtake it until it DOES officially close.

WICKED and THE LION KING are the only two that come to mind to even consider. While I love both CHICAGO and BILLY ELLIOTT and do not want it to happen, the reality is they will both be gone before PHANTOM.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 3:01pm

As long as Phantom keeps running, it will remain ahead. Phantom will not be going anywhere any time soon either. If you look at the grosses you will see the show was consistently made good money over the past few years with no significant drops.

[bradway]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 3:31pm

I think BOOK OF MORMON has the staying power

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 6:11pm

Since, like others have mentioned, PHANTOM is still running and doing pretty well, it continues to break its own record. So the only way to guess what show could pass it would be to consider what shows even have the staying power.

In my opinion, only WICKED and THE LION KING have the overwhelming pull that has long surpassed "freshly opened" buzz. But who knows! Both of them may start to fizzle in just a few short years, while PHANTOM shows no sign of stopping. Like or dislike the show, that mask has become synonymous with Broadway and tourists are still willing to eat that sh*t up.

[Patti LuPone FANatic]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 6:21pm

I don't even want to contemplate a Broadway without "Chicago." from RC in Austin, Texas P.S. It's 5:20 p.m. CST and 104 F. I'm dreaming of temps in the low 70's.

[staunchcharacter]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 7:19pm

Book of mormon, while settled in for a healthy run,won't run 25 years. Even the best musical comedies can't do it. Though I feel it will run longer than the producers, unlike producers they can replace casts without a significant drop in sales.

[ahhrealmonsters]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:20pm

When Cats closed, had the grosses been steadily declining? I don't remember the closing, but was it sudden or expected? I think of what's playing now, Wicked and The Lion King have the power to run for 20+ years. They. Have both been pretty much sold out for their entire runs (8 years and 13.) Phantom has not been consistently selling out for quite some time. That being said, I believe Wicked's weekly running costs are quite high, and I don't know how well they'd run in the (now) 2nd biggest house without high grosses. (As Phantom seems fine on 70% at $70 an average ticket.)

[theatreguy]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 9:44pm

Cats' grosses had been declining the last few years of its run. In 1999 (the 18th year of the run) it sold only 67.04% of its seats and grossed 52.12% of its potential. 2000 started slow but bumped up when the closing was announced and they did well through the rest of the run.

In contrast, the 18th year of Phantom's run was 2005 - the were at 93.35% capacity and 72.26% of potential gross. They're attendance has declined since then (last year it was 79.79%), but the grosses overall have remained about the same thanks to rising ticket prices ($78.33 last year, compared to $60.33 in 2005).

[philly03]

Posted: 8/14/11 at 10:00pm

Phantom's movie had just been released in December of 2004, and I'm sure that had something to do with the grosses.

Phantom is still a big hit during the holidays/tourist rush.

[Dave13]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 10:37am

As others have pointed out, until Phantom closes, it is hard to say which show can beat them. Phantom consistently sells over 90% of its tickets on any given show.

A good answer might be no one.

Phantom is a classic and it will be on the top of the list for tourists. Although, I think Wicked is also a must see with tourists right now as well.

If I am not mistaken, Phantom is no longer on tour the last time I checked. Wicked continues to have a strong run on tour with 2 touring companies. So only time will tell.

Updated On: 8/15/11 at 10:37 AM

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:07am

If Phantom closes within the next year or so (which it won't), I can't really see any of the above mentioned musicals running for longer.

Show popularity eventually fades out. Jersey Boys was on TKTS this past weekend (not saying the show is no longer popular, but before you couldn't really find it on TKTS once it set off).

Phantom has luckily been able to avoid that. The thing these shows have in common, though, that allow them to run for years is that they are international hits.

[AC126748]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:10am

I wouldn't be surprised if BILLY ELLIOT closed in a year or two. Say what you will, but it never really took off here like it did in London. Discounts were readily available after the first year or so of the run.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:40am

Wicked and Lion King are probably the likeliest if Phantom were to close in the next year or two. Book of Mormon is too topical and will become dated a bit more quickly. Billy Elliot is doing well, but so far, it hasn't had the unstoppable exposure of Wicked or Lion King. Chicago has been getting by on low overhead, discounts and stunt casting, but I don't know if it can hang on much longer. Mamma Mia and Jersey Boys will stick around for a while, but don't have the spectacle that is now required for record-breaking runs.

[sally1112]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 11:44am

I think Wicked, with its connection to the "timeless" Wizard of Oz, has the ability to run as long as Phantom (25 plus years) and surpass it, if it ever closes.

[addamsfamily#1fan]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 12:37pm

Spider-Manwill probably break the record.

[addamsfamily#1fan]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 12:37pm

Spider-Man will probably break the record.

[redmustang]

Posted: 8/15/11 at 2:35pm

As it approaches the 10,000 performance record in the U.S., I feel safe in saying that no current Broadway show or future musical will ever surpass this number. Probably none will even come close. Phantom was a unique phenomenon. Early in its run, it became the darling of the tourist, as no show before had ever done. During the run in Toronto, it attracted everyone from the Midwest who didn't really want to endure all the negative trappings of a trip to NYC. It recently topped the 10,000 mark in London. If POTO closed today in NY, Chicago would have to run about another 10 years to overtake it. Lion King - another 12 years. Mamma Mia and Wicked are way down the line. POTO will hold the "longest running musical in Broadway history" title for a long, long time, if not forever.