I've been keeping track from many websites including BWW posts, different blogs, recent award nominations and news site predictions. These are the most popular from what I have gathered on the web. This certainly does not predict what the Tony voters will say on Tuesday but, these are the most popular among theater fans.
in order of popularity...
BEST PLAY: Enron Next fall Time Stands Still Red
BEST MUSICAL: American Idiot Fela! Memphis Come Fly Away
BEST REVIVAL PLAY: Lend Me a Tenor A View from a Bridge The Royal Family Fences
BEST REVIVAL MUSICAL: La Cage A Little Night Music Finian's Rainbow Promises, Promises
BEST DIRECTOR PLAY: Gergory Mosher - A View from a Bridge Michael Grandge - Red Rupert Gould - Enron Daniel Sullivan - Time Stands Still (this was a very close catagory)
BEST DIRECTOR MUSICAL: Michael Mayer - American Idiot Terry Johnson - La Cage Bill T. Jones - Fela! Trevor Nunn - A Little Night Music
BEST ACTOR PLAY: Alfred Molina - Red Christopher Walken - A Beheading in Spokane Liev Shreiber - A View from a Bridge Denzel Washington - Fences Nobert Butz - Enron
BEST ACTRESS PLAY: Viola Davis - Fences Jan Maxwell - The Royal Family Laura Liny - Time Stands Still Valerie Harper - Looped Linda Lavin - Collected Stories
BEST ACTOR MUSICAL: Douglas Hodge - La Cage Sahr Ngaujah - Fela! Nathan Lane - The Addams Family John Gallaghar Jr. - American Idiot Kelsey Grammar - La Cage
BEST ACTRESS MUSICAL: Catherine Zeta Jones - A Little Night Music Sherrie Rene Scott - Everyday Rapture Montego Glover - Memphis Kate Baldwin - Finian's Rainbow Bebe Neuwirth - The Addams Family
BEST FEATURED ACTOR PLAY: Jon Michael Hill - Superior Donuts Eddie Redmayne - Red Brian d'Arcy James - Time Stands Still Stephen Kunken - Enron Gergory Itzin - Enron
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS PLAY: Viola Davis - Fences Jen Maxwell - Lend Me a Tenor Rosemary Harris - The Royal Family Scarlett Johansen - A View from a Bridge Alicia Silverstone - Time Stands Still
BEST FEATURED ACTOR MUSICAL: Tony Vincent - American Idiot Bobby Steggart - Ragtime Robin de Jesus - La Cage Christopher Fitz - Finan's Rainbow Kevin Chamberlin - The Addams Family (again this is a very close race)
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS MUSICAL: Angela Lansbury - A Little Night Music Barbara Cook - Sondheim on Sondheim Katie Finneran - Promises, Promises Rebecca Jones - American Idiot Lilias White - Fela!
BEST BOOK: Everyday Rapture Memphis American Idiot The Addams Family
BEST SCORE: Memphis The Addams Family Enron Fences
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY: Twyla Tharp - Come Fly Away Steven Hoggett - American Idiot Lynn Page - La Cage Sergio Trujillo - Memphis
I've said it before and I'll say it again. If Trevor Nunn gets nominated for Best Director ahead of so many other brilliant directing outings this year (namely MMDodge), I am going to pee pickles. And that is not a good thing.
Also, just a heads up, it is my understanding that TShalhoub & VDavis are elligible in Leading not Featured for their respective categories.
Mr.Long, you may be correct, i'll check it out. i was still under the assumption they were featured by the counting from the votes on the websites Updated On: 5/3/10 at 01:43 AM
if Shalhoub is out for featured then he doesn't have the votes for leading and Gergory Itzan will take his slot on the Featured Actor Category. if Viola is Leading for a Play then Carrie Fisher is out in the Leading Category which will mean Jessica Hecht is in for Featured Actress. hope that makes some sense.
yes, American Idiot is not able to be nominated for Best Score, I updated the list under that category. I'm working on the others as well to be sure everyone is placed in the correct category. please correct me in the listings
perfectliar, I don't think she got one line in "The Glamorous Life" correct. She either mumbled them or didn't sing. She was stumbling on lines throughout the show. This is our supposed frontrunner? You can tell that somewhere within her is the understanding of the character, but this is certainly not the "Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical." I saw Sherie in Everyday Rapture last night, seeing the "frontrunners" back to back. There is absolutely no question in my mind about who deserves it more. Sherie is phenomenal. Even those who don't care for the show can't deny what an amazing performance she's giving.
Kristen and Bebe are pretty close in snagging the last slot in terms of popularity for leading actress in a musical. CZJ is by far a front runner and Sherie is building a lot of momentum right now after opening. My personal picks are very different from the front runners in most categories. Updated On: 5/3/10 at 02:20 AM
So I saw ALNM the day after I saw Ragtime and 2 days before I saw Finian's back in December. I was of the opinion that ALNM was a FAR inferior show to the other two. Although I didn't terribly mind the three leads, I pretty much hated the characterizations of everyone else in the cast. All of them. I thought CZJ was fine. But I would hate to give a Leading Actress Tony to someone who was just fine. Angela was Angela, and although super-awesome and funny, I did not find her performance amazingly over-the-top phenominal. Don't remember much about Hanson anymore... Could tell the material was awesome! Both the music and the book. Blamed Nunn for the failure of it to keep my interest and how much I hated every other performer. Dodge and Carlyle did much better jobs with their shows in my opinion. Much better. And I thought (and still think) that Norton, Fitzgerald, Noll and Steggert all deserve nominations this year. Hmmm, OK, well maybe not Norton given the tough competition in his category, but I thought he was great!
I very much agree with you. Nunn is definitely to blame here. "Miller's Son" is an absolute atrocity (and Leigh Ann Larkin is terribly miscast), but it's all Trevor Nunn's fault I think. Alexander Hanson was definitely one of the better actors on that stage. And I think I liked Angela much more than you did. She is being Angela, as you said, but she's darn good at it. At least the show livened up each time she took the stage.
Don't get me wrong, Angela was definitely the highlight of the show. Oh, and I think I remember not hating Aaron Lazar as much as the rest of the supporting cast at times. But they all seemed like they were in a different (much more cartooney) show than the 3 leads (and the composer and playwright for that matter) were.
I know exactly what you mean. Except I saw Aaron Lazar's understudy, unfortunately. (But that also meant a friend of mine went on as Mr. Lindquist and he looked as if he actually understood Trevor Nunn's direction, which can't be said of every member of the cast.)
I can only guess about the musicals this year as that is all I had time to see when I was last in NYC. I'll admit I wasn't able to see Everyday Rapture but, I have seen all of the other new musicals this year and most of the revivals. So I'm going to take a wild guess based on my personal preferences and reviews of others.
NEW MUSICAL: Fela! Come Fly Away American Idiot Memphis
REVIVAL MUSICAL: Finian's Rainbow La Cage A Little Night Music Ragtime
DIRECTOR MUSICAL: Bill T. Jones - Fela! Michael Mayer - American Idiot Terry Johnson - La Cage James Lapine - Sondheim on Sondheim
ACTOR MUSICAL: Sahr Ngaujah - Fela! Alexander Hanson - A Little Night Music Douglas Hodge - La Cage Robert Petkoff - Ragtime Keith Roberts - Come Fly Away
ACTRESS MUSICAL: Sherie Rene Scott - Everyday Rapture Catherine Zeta Jones - A Little Night Music Montego Glover - Memphis Karine Plantadit - Come Fly Away Katie Baldwin - Finian's Rainbow
FEATURED ACTOR MUSICAL: Bobby Steggart - Ragtime Charlie Neshyba Hodges - Come Fly Away Christopher Fitz - Finian's Rainbow Levi Kreis - Million Dollar Quartet Tony Vincent - American Idiot
FEATURED ACTRESS MUSICAL: Katie Finneran - Promises, Promises Angela Lansbury - A Little Night Music Barbara Cook - Sondheim on Sondheim Lilias White - Fela! Vanessa Williams - Sondheim on Sondheim
Here is the final tally from what I counted up on various websites and blogs before this years Tony nominations are announced in a few hours....
BEST PLAY: Next fall Time Stands Still Red Enron
BEST MUSICAL: American Idiot Fela! Memphis Come Fly Away
BEST REVIVAL PLAY: Lend Me a Tenor A View from a Bridge The Royal Family Fences
BEST REVIVAL MUSICAL: La Cage A Little Night Music Finian's Rainbow Promises, Promises
BEST DIRECTOR PLAY: Michael Grandge - Red Gergory Mosher - A View from a Bridge Rupert Gould - Enron Daniel Sullivan - Time Stands Still (this is a very close catagory for the last 2 slots and top 2 slots)
BEST DIRECTOR MUSICAL: Michael Mayer - American Idiot Terry Johnson - La Cage Bill T. Jones - Fela! Christopher Ashely - Memphis
BEST ACTOR PLAY: Alfred Molina - Red Liev Shreiber - A View from a Bridge Christopher Walken - A Beheading in Spokane Denzel Washington - Fences Nobert Butz - Enron
BEST ACTRESS PLAY: Viola Davis - Fences Jan Maxwell - The Royal Family Valerie Harper - Looped Laura Liny - Time Stands Still Linda Lavin - Collected Stories
BEST ACTOR MUSICAL: Douglas Hodge - La Cage Sahr Ngaujah - Fela! Nathan Lane - The Addams Family John Gallaghar Jr. - American Idiot Kelsey Grammar - La Cage
BEST ACTRESS MUSICAL: Sherrie Rene Scott - Everyday Rapture Catherine Zeta Jones - A Little Night Music Montego Glover - Memphis Kate Baldwin - Finian's Rainbow Bebe Neuwirth - The Addams Family
BEST FEATURED ACTOR PLAY: Eddie Redmayne - Red Brian d'Arcy James - Time Stands Still Jon Michael Hill - Superior Donuts Stephen Kunken - Enron Stephen Henderson - Fences
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS PLAY: Scarlett Johansen - A View from a Bridge Jen Maxwell - Lend Me a Tenor Rosemary Harris - The Royal Family Jessica Hecht - A View from a Bridge Alicia Silverstone - Time Stands Still (very, very close category for the top 3 spots)
BEST FEATURED ACTOR MUSICAL: Tony Vincent - American Idiot Bobby Steggart - Ragtime Kevin Chamberlin - The Addams Family Robin de Jesus - La Cage Christopher Fitz - Finan's Rainbow (again this is a very close race in the top 2 slots, it's tied by my counts)
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS MUSICAL: Angela Lansbury - A Little Night Music Katie Finneran - Promises, Promises Barbara Cook - Sondheim on Sondheim Rebecca Jones - American Idiot Lilias White - Fela!
BEST BOOK: Everyday Rapture Memphis Fela! The Addams Family
BEST SCORE: Memphis The Addams Family Enron Fences
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY: Twyla Tharp - Come Fly Away Sergio Trujillo - Memphis Steven Hoggett - American Idiot Bill T. Jones - Fela!