Hamilton - Best Musical 2016?- Page 3

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 1:57pm

"If any scalpers are reading this:
Buying tickets to Hamilton is a really bad investment. Tickets will be lying around, unsold. Tourists and students will avoid Hamilton because it's a dry history lesson. Older folks hate hip-hop. The only Tony that Hamilton will win is Best Design of a Sippy Cup. Dump all your Hamilton tickets now and cut your losses!
 "

 You bring up a good point. Those reasons might hurt it. I heard the Dear Evan Hansen readings have been amazing. We'll see how good their show is this summer

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 2:10pm

Philly, I'm pretty sure mac's post wasn't serious.

Updated On: 5/27/15 at 02:10 PM

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 2:20pm

I, personally, think it is nearly certain that Hamilton will win Best Musical. I mean, nothing is set in stone, but for something to come along and beat it, it would have to be a total behemoth of a show. There's only one show to be nominated or win in the last 5 years that I think would have a chance of beating it were they in the same season, and that's Book of Mormon.

Hamilton is a fantastic, rule-breaking, exciting new musical with a beloved creative team and unbelievable buzz. It's one of the best, if not THE best show I think I've ever seen on or Off-Broadway. It's that good. Granted, I've only been seeing shows in New York for about 7 years now, but I've seen nearly all the best shows each season. To me, Hamilton trumps them all.

Whether it will live to be the sort of record-breaking hit that Chorus Line did, we will have to wait and see. But it definitely has the potential. When a show this good comes to Broadway, it doesn't matter when it opens, if it's better than the competition, (and I expect it to be) it will win the Tony.

Updated On: 5/27/15 at 02:20 PM

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 2:37pm

Im just relating what he said to who's winning Best Musical. He brings up good points about young people thinking its boring because of history and old people possibly hating hip hop. A lot of times the happy fun show like Kinky Boots beats out heady shows like Matilda.

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 2:54pm

It's not a history lesson. Yes it's about history, but it's an interesting story about one of the greatest men in America's history. It's something young people will love. I could see the older generation not loving the hip-hop/rap music, but the night I saw it, the older generation jumped to their feet at the end of the show. It's a interesting, moving, relatable story told in a thrilling way. 

Also, there were many factors that led to the Kinky Boots triumph over Matilda. And Hamilton is more a "fun show" show than it is a "heady" show, so I don't know why you're comparing it to those. 

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 4:41pm

WRONG^

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 5:52pm

Not even going to say what you think was wrong? I made like 5 separate points in that last post and your response is "wrong".

I've never interacted with you before but I'm starting to see why people aren't particularly fond of you. 

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 7:12pm

Its just an analogy. Matilda isn't like Hamilton but they are both the genius pieces of theatre. What if a show like Kinky Boots shows up and steals their steam. I think its to early to be making predictions a year earlier

[dented146]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 7:24pm

I am looking forward to seeing Hamilton in October. I don't know if The Hunchback of Notre Dame will be opening next year but it is very very good. It seems to me that a lot of musicals show up with little fan fair and win, ie, Gentleman's Guide, Once, Jersey Boys etc.

It is really early to tell.

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/27/15 at 9:31pm

"It seems to me that a lot of musicals show up with little fan fair and win, ie, Gentleman's Guide, Once, Jersey Boys etc."

 

Difference there is the fact that no show nearly as good as Hamilton opened those seasons. 

[dented146]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 1:49am

By the time of the Tony Awards, Hamilton will have been sold out almost 11 months and likely will have recouped. Hamilton will be established as a huge commercial success. I don't think that helps with Tony voters. If there is another very good or clever musical which needs recognition to flourish, the voters may give it the nod.

I haven't seen the show. It may be the best thing in years but a lot of great musicals have lost.

[Dessie]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 7:12am

Hamilton will win Best Musical. It will lose many of the major acting awards. It won't win score.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 10:32am

What are the wining Illinois lottery numbers for next week?

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 10:32am

I don't know somebody already mentioned this, but Avenue Q opened in July of 2003 and it didn't seem to lose their thunder by the time the 2004 tony's came.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 10:51am

There's dancing at Tony's.  It's ritzy at Tony's.

[polkadotmissile]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 11:49am

I would argue that Hamilton has had hype since Lin performed at the White House. That piece was well-crafted and got people (theatre fans, historians, the general public) excited for what was coming. It's been years since then. I think it's maintained the hype and energy so well because Lin himself is so hyped about it. He's incredibly open about his process on Twitter, so it allows people to see where these ideas are coming from and how this piece was formed. If the hype has maintained itself this long, I don't doubt it can stay (rightfully so) all the way through until next June. 

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 2:51pm

"If there is another very good or clever musical which needs recognition to flourish, the voters may give it the nod."

I'm curious if that's ever happened. Like has there ever been a show that is clearly a better musical and is selling out, yet another show wins Best Musical because to basically give it a boost in sales? 

I just honestly don't think the Tonys work that way, they usually vote for either the show that's going to sell the best on the road, or the actual Best Musical. 

 

 

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/28/15 at 3:44pm

I'm curious if that's ever happened. Like has there ever been a show that is clearly a better musical and is selling out, yet another show wins Best Musical because to basically give it a boost in sales?

Oh, that was definitely the popular theory regarding Gentleman's Guide winning Best Musical.  If Beautiful or Aladdin won, it would have been the "touring" theory.  The other popular theory is "vendetta" theory when Passion won over Beauty and the Beast.  It's rare that a musical wins where the popular theory is that the best was actually chosen by the voters.  I think the last time that happened might have been 2003.  Otherwise, you'd probably have to go back to 1979.

The way it usually works is like this:

1. Tony voters cast their votes however they see fit.

2. Tony awards is broadcast.

3. Non-Tony voter fans who don't know or communicate with Tony voters watch the broadcast.

4. The non-Tony voter fans of the losing show tell us precisely what Tony voters were thinking and the rationale for their voting.

5. One theory becomes the meme and is later popularly expressed as fact.

[nycncbrguy]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 9:36am

Hal Prince's The Prince of Broadway with Ramin Karimloo is set for this Fall in Japan and seems poised for a Spring 2016 Broadway Opening. I bet it will be a Best Musical Contender and very popular with Tony Tour Voters!

[RaiseYouUp]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 9:42am

"Hamilton will win Best Musical. It will lose many of the major acting awards. It won't win score."

 Why don't you think it will win score? I mean, we don't know all the musicals that will be opening next season.

[CoreyRyan3]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 12:08pm

I think Score is one of the categories it sort of has locked down. Lots of great shows coming in with scores by talented artists, but the score to Hamilton is something by a loved person in the community, it's special and new, and something the Tony voters will want to award.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 2:11pm

Wicked was a sure thing, too, and Avenue Q conquered it at the Tony's. I don't really recall the buzz for Avenue Q, but Wicked was the one to beat. Avenue Q had a very smart marketing campaign, and by then Wicked was a juggernaut, so it wouldn't suprise me if they were a little bit arrogant in their campaign causing it to lose.

but the score to Hamilton is something by a loved person in the community,

It's not like he's Cole Porter, so let's not pretend that he'll win because he's a nice guy.