2006 Oscar Predictions

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 2:05pm

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
**Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE**
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
**Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
**Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE**

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
**Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER**
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE
**TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE**
WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
**GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.**
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE
KING KONG
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
PRIDE & PREJUDICE

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
BATMAN BEGINS
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
THE NEW WORLD

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY
**MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA**
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTSPRIDE & PREJUDICE
WALK THE LINE

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE
ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
**MARCH OF THE PENGUINS**
MURDERBALL
STREET FIGHT

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
THE DEATH OF KEVIN CARTER: CASUALTY OF THE BANG BANG CLUB
**GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA**
THE MUSHROOM CLUB
A NOTE OF TRIUMPH: THE GOLDEN AGE OF NORMAN CORWIN

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
CINDERELLA MAN
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
CRASH
MUNICH
**WALK THE LINE**

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
DON'T TELL
**JOYEUX NOèL**
PARADISE NOW
SOPHIE SCHOLL - THE FINAL DAYS
TSOTSI

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
**THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE**
CINDERELLA MAN
STAR WARS: EPISODE III REVENGE OF THE SITH

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
MUNICH
PRIDE & PREJUDICE

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"In the Deep" - CRASH
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW
**"Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA**

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
BADGERED
**THE MOON AND THE SON: AN IMAGINED CONVERSATION**
THE MYSTERIOUS GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORATIONS OF JASPER MORELLO
9
ONE MAN BAND

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
AUSREISSER (THE RUNAWAY)
CASHBACK
THE LAST FARM
**OUR TIME IS UP**
SIX SHOOTER

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
**KING KONG**
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
KING KONG
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
**WALK THE LINE**
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
**KING KONG**
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
MUNICH

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
**CRASH**
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MATCH POINT
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
SYRIANA


Brokeback Mountain-7
Walk the Line-3
Capote-1
Crash-1
King Kong-2
Good Night, and Good Luck-1
Memoirs of a Geisha-1
The Constant Cardener-1

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 2:22pm

I agree that Jake has a shot whereas Heath and Michelle do not. The other gents, all beloved, may cancel one another out. And people who say "they" will want to give Clooney "something" forget that actors vote for actors. There is no "they" here -- and actors may not find Clooney's SYRIANA nomination the most noteworthy of his three. So Jake's competition if Giamatti. Strong, but who knows?

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 2:28pm

I really hope Jake pulls it out. Heath was GREAT, but Hoffman deserves it. Same thing goes for Michelle and Weisz. They were both wonderful, so either way I will be pleased! Just as long as Giamatti doesn't beat Jake I will be fine. I thought he was grotesque in Cinderella Man. Other shoe-ins are BBM for Director, Best Pic, and Adapted Screenplay! Oh, I can't wait!

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 3:00pm

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
**Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE**
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
**Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
**Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE**

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
**Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER**
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE
TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE
**WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT**

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE
KING KONG
**MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA**
PRIDE & PREJUDICE

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
BATMAN BEGINS
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
THE NEW WORLD

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY
**MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA**
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
PRIDE & PREJUDICE
WALK THE LINE

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE
ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
**MURDERBALL**
STREET FIGHT

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
CINDERELLA MAN
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
CRASH
**MUNICH**
WALK THE LINE

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
DON'T TELL
JOYEUX NOèL
**PARADISE NOW**
SOPHIE SCHOLL - THE FINAL DAYS
TSOTSI

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
**THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE**
CINDERELLA MAN
STAR WARS: EPISODE III REVENGE OF THE SITH

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
MUNICH
PRIDE & PREJUDICE

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"In the Deep" - CRASH
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW
**"Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA**

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
**KING KONG**
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
KING KONG
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
**WALK THE LINE**
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
**KING KONG**
WAR OF THE WORLDS

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
**BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN**
CAPOTE
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
MUNICH

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
**CRASH**
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MATCH POINT
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
SYRIANA

Posted: 2/1/06 at 3:10pm

can someone give me an opinion on Amy Adams? I haven't heard of her or the movie. I'm with you on those predictions- I'd like to see Reese win.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 3:45pm

beerchild-

Amy Adams is absolutely phenomenal in Junebug. Sweet, funny, soulful, and heartbreaking. While all of the nominees in that category are great, she would be my choice.

Posted: 2/1/06 at 6:50pm

Did anyone else think that Sandra Bullock's character was the only lase note in an otherwise good movie.

[PJ]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 7:13pm

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
- (Crash upset? Puh-lease.)

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich
- (A definite lock for Mr. Lee.)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
- (Hopefully an upset from Phoenix.)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
- (It's between Jake and Paul.)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE
- (Felicity is a fine actress, but this is Reese's to lose.)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
- (Weisz's winning streak comes to a surprising end March 5th.)



Updated On: 2/1/06 at 07:13 PM

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 10:59pm

Do you really think Michelle is gonna pull it out. I would LOVE to see her get it. But I seriously have my doubts! You really think the Academy is gonna give it to her???

If she does I may pee on myself!

[PJ]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 11:11pm

Since BBM is going to take Best Picture, I look for the Academy to award one of it's nominated performances. Heath is very, very unlikely at this point. Jake has a shot, I'd say. But, I still feel it in my gut that Michelle is going to walk away with what could very well be the only acting prize for this film. And I'm not just saying that because I thoroughly enjoyed her work in the film, either. I firmly believe she has a chance of winning.

Sure, I predict Jake, but I think he'll get it in the event of a BBM sweep.
Updated On: 2/1/06 at 11:11 PM

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/1/06 at 11:16pm

Yea, PJ! You made me feel so much better!


Woo-Hoo!

[sabrelady]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:23am

Kinda agree w most picks here- except Giamatti will prob take supporting.
Clooney is very popular, if he doesn't win supporting he will prob get original screenplay.
Also wonder about art direction if Geisha won't get that in addition to costume.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 1:06am

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
should win: Heath Ledger
will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
should win: Matt Dillon
will win: Paul Giamatti

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
should win: Felicity Huffman
will win: Reese Witherspoon

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
should win: Rachel Weisz
will win: Rachel Weisz

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
should win: Wallace and Gromit
will win: Wallace and Gromit

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
will win: Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
should win: Ang Lee
will win: Ang Lee

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
should win: March of the Penguins
will win: March of the Penguins

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
should win: Cinderella Man
will win: The Constant Gardener

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
should win: Paradise Now
will win: Paradise Now

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
should win: Cinderella Man
will win: The Chronicles of Narnia

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
should win: Memoirs of a Geisha
will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
should win: "In the Deep", Crash (if it were truly original)
will win: "Travelin' Through", Transamerica

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
should win: Brokeback Mountain
will win: Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
should win: King Kong
will win: King Kong

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
should win: Walk the Line
will win: Walk the Line

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
should win: King Kong
will win: King Kong

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
should win: Brokeback Mountain
will win: Brokeback Mountain

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
should win: Crash
will win: Crash

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 1:36am

Am I right that Geisha got six nominations? I don't see why it 'fell out of the running' as soon as it came out for best picture and other major awards. I enjoyed it more than Munich and at least as much as BBM and Good Night good Luck.

any other opinions?

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 2:02am

I thought GEISHA was a better film than CRASH, but definitely not better than other films that could have been nominated, like THE CONSTANT GARDENER and WALK THE LINE.

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:04pm

I agree that out of BBM's 3 Acting Nominations, the Academy is bound to give them one to accompany the Best Picture and Director Win! Heath is out, so it leaves Jake or Michelle...we'll see!

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:17pm

As much as I completely admire Williams' performance, I fear she's a long shot. Her entire performance is about 10 minutes of screen time, really of the Beatrice Straight NETWORK sort (I know, she won) -- defined by two key scenes.

On 2nd viewing, the "Jack Nasty" dishwashing scene, now much joked about, is a text book example of how to play, and shoot (mostly the camera is behind her, amazingly and boldly enough) a confrontation that could otherwise be one-note. She finds layers of pain where a lesser actor would merely play anger or hurt. Williams is simultaneously full of outrage, physical revulsion, and great loss. She manages to challenge him while showing us how fully she still loves this man.

I think this film will change her life -- she's a beautiful young woman who loses herself entirely in this bland, ignored creature. Watch her sitting with the coffee cup, when her body stiffens as she hears Ennis return. Perfection.

But probably no Oscar. The category is chock-full, probably 3 others ahead of her. Really, the nomination is a wonderful gift to her career. She now needs her own movie--to star in.

And she's pretty terrific in THE STATION AGENT, a favorite of mine.

Updated On: 2/2/06 at 12:17 PM

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:20pm

I agree Auggie. Weisz is amazing, and I hope she walk away with it! But since I feel Heath and Michelle are out, the Academy better give it to Jake. He really does deserve it (minus the moustache)
Updated On: 2/2/06 at 12:20 PM

[children&art]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:33pm

"I really hope Jake pulls it out."

I dont, he needs to leave it in a little longer.

Everyone I know and their mother is on this "Brokeback Mtn" kick, but I'm gay and I didnt think it was anything special, kind of a monotone movie.

"Munich" really touched me and intrigued me.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:36pm

children&art: you really should visit another thread. You'll be welcome. There are a couple of gay, non-fans of BBM who will want to know everything about you, including SS# and waist size.

[children&art]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 12:44pm

i guess im naive, what does this reply mean?

[PJ]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 1:29pm

Nicely put, Auggie. To some it's a longshot, but I still have some faith in the Academy. I haven't completely given up on them yet.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 2/2/06 at 6:44pm

Best Picture
WILL: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD: Crash (I'm fine with Brokeback winning, I loved it...but Crash was better, IMO)

Best Actor
WILL: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
SHOULD: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow (An underrated performance that has no chance of winning but I'm thrilled it got a nomination...Howard was a revelation)



Best Actress
SHOULD AND WILL: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (The year's best performance)

Best Supporting Actor
SHOULD: Matt Dillon, Crash
WILL: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (As an "apoligy award" for not being nominated for his two stellar performances in Sideways and American Splendor)


Best Supporting Actress
SHOULD: Catherine Keener, Capote
WILL: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener


Best Director
SHOULD AND WILL: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain


Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

Best Original Screenplay
SHOULD AND WILL: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash


Animated Feature
SHOULD AND WILL: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Art Direction
WILL: Memoirs of a Geisha
SHOULD: Pride and Prejudice (both are wonderfully stunning art-direction-wise but Prejudice was beautiful and sumptuous for specific reasons while Geisha was in-your-face-inexplicably-beautiful)


Cinematography
WILL: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD: Good Night, and Good Luck


Costumes
SHOULD: Memoirs of a Geisha
WILL: Walk the Line

Documentary Feature
WILL: March of the Penguins
SHOULD: Murderball


Documentary Short Subject
NO IDEA IN THIS CATEGORY

Film Editing
WILL: Crash
SHOULD: Walk the Line

Foreign Language Film
SHOULD AND WILL: Paradise Now (Palestinian Authority)


Make-Up
SHOULD AND WILL: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe


Original Score
SHOULD AND WILL: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain


Original Song
WILL: 'In the Deep,' from Crash
SHOULD: 'Travelin' Thru,' from Transamerica

Short Film (Animated)
NO IDEA

Short Film (Live Action)
NO IDEA

Sound Editing
SHOULD AND WILL: King Kong


Sound Mixing
SHOULD AND WILL: Walk the Line


Visual Effects
WILL AND SHOULD: King Kong



Final Count:
Brokeback Mountain:
-Will win 5
Walk the Line:
-Will win 3
Crash:
-Will win 3
Capote:
-Will win 1
Cinderella Man:
-Will win 1
King Kong:
-Will win 2
The Constant Gardener:
-Will win 1
Wallace and Grommit:
-Will win 1
Memoirs of a Geisha:
-Will win 1

The rest all have 1 win, if I counted correctly.

[Overthemoon6]

Posted: 2/7/06 at 12:48am

I really want Reese to win, too.

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 2/7/06 at 2:28am

I know it won't, but I wish CRASH would win best picture. It was one of the most brillant films I've seen in the past decade. I love it!