2006 Oscar Predictions- Page 2

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 2/7/06 at 2:28am

I know it won't, but I wish CRASH would win best picture. It was one of the most brillant films I've seen in the past decade. I love it!

[PJ]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:02am

There's no way Crash will upset in the Best Picture category. That rumor was just mentioned on the several oscar boards because it makes it more "exciting." The producers of Brokeback Mountain, just as Ang Lee and Reese, might as well clear a spot on their mantels.

That being said, I hope there is at least one surprise. I hate when every major category is a no brainer. I may even change some of my predictions in this thread from a while ago based on what I've heard/read recently.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:13am

Best Picture
Will: BBM
Should: BBM
Snubbed: Squid/Whale

Best Director
Will: Ang Lee
Should: Ang Lee
Snubbed: David Cronenberg

Best Actor
Will: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should: Hoffman or Ledger
Snubbed: Cillian Murphy/Jeff Daniels

Best Actress
Will: Reese Witherspoon
Should: Reese Witherspoon
Snubbed: Joan Allen/Gwyneth Paltrow

Best Supporting Actor
Will: George Clooney
Should: Jake Gyllenhaal or William Hurt
Snubbed: Mickey Rourke (yeah, I said it)/Kevin Costner/Val Kilmer

Best Supporting Actress
Will: Rachel Weisz
Should: Amy Adams
Snubbed: Maria Bello/Laura Linney/Shirley MacLaine Updated On: 2/18/06 at 01:13 AM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:41am

Bway 86, what about Huffman for your snubbed list?

[PJ]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:57am

Updated Predictions!

Best Picture
Should: BBM
Will: BBM

Best Director
Should: Ang Lee
Will: Ang Lee

Best Actor
Should: Phoenix, Ledger and Hoffman all deserve it.
Will: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Preferred Upset: Ledger

Best Actress
Should: Reese Witherspoon
Will: Reese Witherspoon
Preferred Upset: Not here. I thought Felicity was lovely, but Reese just has way too much momentum to be thrown off the Oscar Horse.

Best Supporting Actor
Should: Jake Gyllenhaal
Will: George Clooney
Preferred Upset: Gyllenhaal sneaking in for a win.

Best Supporting Actress
Should: Michelle Williams
Will: Rachel Weisz
Preferred Upset: Williams was heartbreaking in BBM. Rachel was quite good in TCG, but Oscar worthy, really? If Rachel wins, she's winning because her character is admired. She really didn't have a scene to steal in the entire film.

[melissa errico fan]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 8:56am

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Should Win: CAPOTE
Should've Been Nominated: THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Ang Lee
Should've Been Nominated: David Cronenberg, Noah Baumbach, John Madden

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should've Been Nominated: Eric Bana, Cillian Murphy

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Felicity Huffman
Should've Been Nominated: Gwyneth Paltrow, Liv Ullmann, Claire Danes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Paul Giamatti (consolation prize for not being nominated for SIDEWAYS)
Should Win: Matt Dillon (hated the movie, but he was brilliant)
Should've Been Nominated: Kevin Zegers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Should Win: Rachel Weisz
Should've Been Nominated: Scarlett Johansson, Maria Bello, Laura Linney

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: CRASH
Should Win: THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
Should've Been Nominated: JUNEBUG

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Should Win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Should've Been Nominated: SHOPGIRL

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 9:54am

Bway 86, what about Huffman for your snubbed list?

Hey Jane!

I meant snubbed for nominations. Updated On: 2/18/06 at 09:54 AM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:04am

Oh ok, thanks.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:27am

Oh, my god! I meant to put 'Jane', not PJ. Sorry!

Best Orig. Screenplay
Will: Crash (gag)
Should: Squid/Whale
Snubbed: Cache/40 Year-Old Virgin

Will: BBM
Should: BBM
Snubbed: Pride & Prejudice/Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang Updated On: 2/18/06 at 10:27 AM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:34am

That's ok, I'll forgive you this time, 86!

I"ve only got one more film to view this season, and that's Capote-the person I borrow my dvds from seems to be missing that one-it must be a favorite among her friends.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:35am

She gets screener DVDs?

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:36am

Yes, I'm friendly with a family of actors. The father is a member of the academy.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:37am

Lucky...

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:40am

you can say that again. I'm very lucky that they are so generous as to lend them. I have become on of those people who hardly go out to a movie, but waits until it's on cable. This way I was able to see all the films of the year in the comfort of my bed, lol!

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:05pm

still think Felicity will upset!

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:25pm

For those hardcore rooting for Reese, did you see Transamerica?

I just find it hard to believe that people could have seen both WALK THE LINE and TRANSAMERICA and are STILL pulling for Reese.

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:27pm

While I haven't seen Transamerica, it's not that I'm PULLING for Reese as much as I think people are so surprised and won over by her June Carter Cash that she's my bet to win.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:28pm

There is just NO comparison!

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:30pm

I'm not making one.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 1:33pm

that post was in response to munk. :P

But, of course, one can make a comparison. I just know I am right.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 3:26pm

I've been following the Oscarwatch.com alerts as well, and honestly agree with whoever posted above: all this shtus is to introduce drama in an awards season where there very likely is any. CRASH is a very compelling -- if flawed -- work that has little support among most academy voters. (Overinterpreting the SAG ensemble vote is silly -- they awarded an acting company that did yeoman's work, as they did for SIDEWAYS last year.)

Oscarwatch brings up the way SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE beat SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, in a startling upset. But BROKEBACK is far more of a SHAKESPEARE than a RYAN, so the logic of an 11th hour upset only holds if you completely overlook film content, style. BROKEBACK's biggesgt criticism -- that it's (sexually) "safe" and romantically very BACKSTREET conventional in depicting illicit romance, once we get past those 15 seconds in the tent -- is one reason why it stands to win. It's a movie you can take your grandmother too, basically (as opposed to CRASH), and that won't hurt it at the Oscars. (Yeah, MIDNIGHT COWBOY won once, but that was love story of sorts, too.) I also think more voters will have seen BROKEBACK than CRASH. And CRASH is a very hard movie to warm to in your living room on the DVD.

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 03:26 PM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 4:29pm

But, Auggie, that is NOT everyone's opinion of Crash and THAT is what those discussions are about. Crash makes many feel much more than Brokeback did. Enough to win? Probably not. I think you make some great comments there, but I also think you are letting your distaste for Crash affect the logic that has been brought up. The FACT is many love Crash and many hate Crash. And many love Brokeback and many hate Brokeback. And, how do you know that the Academy isn't loving Crash? They nominated it to begin with. Who do I think will win? Brokeback. But, it's an interesting discussion nonetheless.

[MarkCohen]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 4:54pm

I will be very upset if Crash wins. I thought it was an overrated film with only a few affecting scenes. The movie did flow well enough as a "single film" for me to praise it as a movie.

I'm really hoping for either Williams and Gylenhaal or both of them to win. They stole the movie, as fantastic as Heath was as well. I've given up on Heath because Hoffman is a lock; however, how exciting would it be if he won?

I just have a question that might be naive. Why is "A Love That Will Never Grow Old" not nominated for best song. It boggles my mind especially because there are 2 slots open.

[Luscious]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 5:13pm

The CRASH that should have won Best Picture was Cronenberg's back in '96. Now THAT was an original, audacious, controversial, and compelling piece of filmmaking! This one wasn't even original enough to have come up with a title that hadn't been used before, and rather recently. (Not to mention that since the early 70's it's been associated with the classic cult novel by J.G. Ballared.) Again, not an especially bad movie, but not an especially good one either. If it wins, I'll be majorly disappointed. Oh, who am I kidding; I'll be livid and bitter for days!

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 05:13 PM

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 6:15pm

Thanks, Luciscious, for reminding us of the Cronenberg CRASH. Yikes, I'll never forget that. Saw it the first night in NY, with an East Side audience (Sutton?) that literally squirmed. And this was in hip NY. It was one of the most audacious stories ever told, I'll never forget the way it creeped me out.

(SPOILER:) The sequence where the cult "audience" sexually aroused by accidents and their mystique lined up to see the re-enactment of the Dean death (do I remember correctly)? And Holly Hunter taking huge personal risks as an actor. And that Canadian actress, whose name escapes me. It was unlike any story ever told on screen. I sent two people to see it, and they never forgave me! Ha! .

But the new CRASH, effective though it is in places, is really more of an attempt at a darker GRAND CANYON. And as for LA based ensemble films, I still think MAGNOLIA had more depth and artistry.

Jerby, honestly, my bias against the current CRASH isn't quite as severe as you opine. I was a fan when it came out. A 2nd viewing just hasn't revealed lasting resonance.

BUT: Let's keep our eyes on the British Academy Awards tomorrow night. Very interesting to see if there's an upset there. There's a projection there, quite fascinating, at Oscarwatch.com.

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 06:15 PM