2006 Oscar Predictions- Page 3

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 6:15pm

Thanks, Luciscious, for reminding us of the Cronenberg CRASH. Yikes, I'll never forget that. Saw it the first night in NY, with an East Side audience (Sutton?) that literally squirmed. And this was in hip NY. It was one of the most audacious stories ever told, I'll never forget the way it creeped me out.

(SPOILER:) The sequence where the cult "audience" sexually aroused by accidents and their mystique lined up to see the re-enactment of the Dean death (do I remember correctly)? And Holly Hunter taking huge personal risks as an actor. And that Canadian actress, whose name escapes me. It was unlike any story ever told on screen. I sent two people to see it, and they never forgave me! Ha! .

But the new CRASH, effective though it is in places, is really more of an attempt at a darker GRAND CANYON. And as for LA based ensemble films, I still think MAGNOLIA had more depth and artistry.

Jerby, honestly, my bias against the current CRASH isn't quite as severe as you opine. I was a fan when it came out. A 2nd viewing just hasn't revealed lasting resonance.

BUT: Let's keep our eyes on the British Academy Awards tomorrow night. Very interesting to see if there's an upset there. There's a projection there, quite fascinating, at Oscarwatch.com.

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 06:15 PM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 6:24pm

Holly Hunter's titty!!

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 8:12pm

Oh how interesting!

Ebert also predicts that Amy Adams will win.
Ebert and Roeper Both Predict Crash to Take BP

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:38pm

Munk-I agree with what you said about there being no comparison betw. Reese and Huffman, but there's usually so much more behind the reasons why the academy votes for their choices than just the performance. I'm remembering way back when Liz Taylor won because she had a tracheotomy, and has a scar on her throat.

My favorite for best picture isn't even Crash. I liked the Squid and the Whale best, but I'm positive it'll be ignored.

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:42pm

sorry, I think the board went down for a while, and I didn't think my post had registered.

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 10:42 PM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 10:38pm

Updated On: 2/18/06 at 10:38 PM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/18/06 at 11:31pm

bump

[PJ]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:24am

In my opinion, Roger Ebert's reviews, as well as award predix, are useless. The man has little to no credibility anymore.

Oh, and Amy Adams was adorable in Junebug, but I strongly believe it's a two way race between Weisz and Williams. After the GGs, SAGs, and the Baftas later tonight, Rachel will probably be in the lead.

Reese Witherspoon is going to win the Oscar. Not only is she the default choice to vote for, but in my opinion, she deserves it. I loved Felicity in Transamerica, and she certainly has many pulling for her, but this has been Reese's trophy for months now.

[ShbrtAlley44]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:25am

Rachel Weisz has it.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:08pm

If there's a CRASH upset -- and there's a chance it will, if only because of a BROKEBACK backlash -- then what will follow is an explosion of press (rightly) accusing the Academy of blatant homophobia, and maybe even racism (ironically) for snubbing an Ang Lee film once again.

And I think we can kiss any future hopes of a gay-themed film winning Best Picture goodbye.

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:12pm

And that Canadian actress, whose name escapes me.

Deborah Kara Unger?

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:15pm

All I know is the Academy has been restless in recent years--full of surprises and breaking precedents.

The only real surprise for me will be no surprises--Brokeback, Ang Lee, Hoffman, Witherspoon, Clooney, Weisz, Crash (orig), and Brokeback (adapt). Statistically, at least one of the first 6 listed will not win in their category.

So, since some of you believe those are in fact THE top 6 prizes, what IS the weak spot--the one likely to be upset?

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:22pm

I think Jake will win over George.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:29pm

And, I would have thought maybe Giamatti. However, I have a feeling Clooney will get it as a dual prize for Good Night, and Good Luck.

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 12:31pm

that also means no acting awards for Brokeback though.

[Peter]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 3:09pm

I agree with Blue Wizard. Ive predicted from the start that Crash would upset BBM, but the media will make the upset sound like some kind of defeat to gay rights, and the conservatives will be all over the airwaves jumping up and down with victory dances.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 3:12pm

That's just crazy talk! We all KNOW that Brokeback isn't a key issue in the gay rights culture war!!

from http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=11116 via http://www.oscarwatch.com

"Far over to the right on various hysteria "news" programs, the subject is, again and again, Brokeback Mountain. The movie has released something that has apparently been repressed. The American Prospect Online chews on that bone for a while, coming up with:

But if the movie itself transcends the culture-war ghetto, its selling has not. There’s that word: “agenda.” Lane’s line shows that even ostensibly liberal critics have internalized the right-wing claim that the movie is being pushed as part of a larger progressive conspiracy. It’s a notion that right-wing punditry has done an effective job of peddling. MSNBC’S Tucker Carlson, while acknowledging the movie might be good as art, assailed it anyway: “I am merely saying it is used by people with a political agenda -- in this case, its own director -- to make a political point.” (Someone should send him a copy of Lee’s The Ice Storm, a lacerating, neocon-ish critique of the sexual revolution, hardly the work of a radical polemicist.) Reliably, Bill O’Reilly lashed out at the media for pushing the movie solely because it “want[s] to mainstream homosexual conduct.”

Isn't that funny, I always thought of Ang Lee as a radical protestor of gay rights too. While they're at it, they must also hang out to dry the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, the Writers Guild, the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics, the Golden Globes, the Broadcast Film Critics, Dallas, London, San Francisco, Golden Satellites, Southeastern Film Critics, Vancouver, and the Golden Lion from the Venice Film Festial. Wow, man, that is SOME conspiracy! "

Updated On: 2/19/06 at 03:12 PM

[Peter]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 5:06pm

**That's just crazy talk! We all KNOW that Brokeback isn't a key issue in the gay rights culture war!!***

I'm well aware BBM isnt an issue in the gay rights war, and its really ridiculous for anyone to think it is, but its just the way the media is going to make it sound...primarily the conservative media. After all, this media proclaimed it the "gay cowboy movie". They're all foaming at the mouth at the prospects of a Crash win and we'll be seeing Bill O'Reilly and his kinfolk with their rabid attacks when it loses. And under this corrupt and evil Administration, when Bush give s a speech and his ratings rise, it just leads me to believe a good percentage of people in this country are too easily swayed by the ridiculous rants of hatemongers.


Updated On: 2/19/06 at 05:06 PM

[peggyandvelma]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 5:30pm

I hope that there is a Crash upset because of all the films up for BP, Crash is the most original. However, I admit I haven't seen BBM, but have heard that it is indeed a beautiful and moving film. I won't be angry if BBM wins, but I enjoyed Crash. It was a breath of fresh air from all the crap films from the last few years. (And I don't mean films that were Oscar-caliber were crap...but Million Dollar Baby DID win last year...I just meant that films lately have dwindled in originality and quality.)

[Roscoe]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 5:36pm

What exactly was it about Crash that struck you as being original?

[peggyandvelma]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 6:58pm

It's original in the sense that it isn't based on anything except a general statement of real life. I know that Capote, Munich, and GNGL are based on real life (i.e. Capote's life and work, 72 Olympics and McCarthy era respectively) but Crash took what's going on in the world now and brought it to the big screen.
And I think it's time we slow down on the number of films made to showcase how people can imitate or become other famous people. I enjoyed The Aviator, but how about making films that aren't just for showing how much Cate Blanchett can sound and act like Kate Hepburn? Fabulous performance, but kind of unneccesary.
I'm just rooting for the underdog here, that's all.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 7:52pm

For those hardcore rooting for Reese, did you see Transamerica?

Yes. Twice.

I just find it hard to believe that people could have seen both WALK THE LINE and TRANSAMERICA and are STILL pulling for Reese.

Why is that? Updated On: 2/19/06 at 07:52 PM

[PJ]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 8:05pm

Hopefully today's BAFTA's are a sign that Jake has a better shot than many think he does.
BAFTA Winners! Updated On: 2/19/06 at 08:05 PM

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 8:33pm

Peggyandvelma, I also thought Crash was original. You don't often see a situation where an someone voices an opinion or takes an action and is immediately followed up by an unexpected reaction. For me it was very refreshing-I enjoyed the film immensely.

[gustof777]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 8:45pm

JAKE JAKE JAKE JAKE JAKE JAKE......he won the BAFTA.....SO SUCK IT!!!! he's gonna win....and u all know it!!