2006 Oscar Predictions- Page 4

[MarkCohen]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 9:57pm

I will be so psyched if Jake wins. If I had to pick a Brokeback peformance that was the most affecting (it is difficult), I would pick Jake.

[More Cowbell]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:00pm

My money's all in for:

Best Actor - PSH... even though I think it shoud go to Joaquin
Best Actress - Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor - Jake Gyllenhaal (his BAFTA win swayed my decision)
Best Supporting Actress - definitely Rachel Weisz, even though she sucked in "Constantine"

[peggyandvelma]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:30pm

Thanks, Jane, for your comment. I really think Crash deserves the Best Picture win...on sheer originality.

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:32pm

It really was unique. I actually thought this was a good year for films. I've seen them all except for Capote, and I have a lot of them on an equal par as my favorites. If I had to choose, though, I'd go with Squid and the Whale. But it was too small a film to get much attention.

[mabel]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:36pm

While I wasn't particularly impressed with Crash, I do think you have a valid point about the sheer excess of biopics lately. That's not to say that they can't be engrossing and powerful films, most of them are, but there is something a bit curious in the fact that half of the BP nominees over the past two years have been biopics, not to mention the many others that have been in the running for other major awards.

[mabel]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:38pm

Jane, The Squid and the Whale was wonderful. It's a real shame that it wasn't able to get more recognition. While it's never going to happen, I would love to see Baumbach win for Best Original Screenplay.

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:39pm

Yes, I agree. Those characters were so clearly and accurately written, I thought.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:39pm

While it's never going to happen, I would love to see Baumbach win for Best Original Screenplay.

That would be fantastic.

[peggyandvelma]

Posted: 2/19/06 at 10:45pm

I agree with you, mabel. Biopics can be very moving--take Finding Neverland for example. I was really rooting for that last year. And I heard Squid was excellent and original, too. I'm not too sure if any theatre near me showed it. Sometimes I really hate it when the little films get snubbed. I was surprised to see Capote in the BP run. But, alas, I repeat my support for Crash. This is a tough year.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/20/06 at 1:03am

My personal take on why it's impossible for me to compare Reese and Felicity?

Watching DH tonite and being stunned that the same actress on that show was in Transamerica.

And that while Reese was good in WTL, there were too many Elle from Legally Blond moments.

[bernadette88]

Posted: 2/20/06 at 11:46pm

All I have to say is that I am so psyched cause Jake is totally gonna win the oscar!

[PJ]

Posted: 2/21/06 at 1:36am

I rewatched The Constant Gardener this weekend. Now I see why Weisz has all this Oscar buzz. I still prefer Michelle Williams, but I'll be okay if Rachel wins.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 2:51pm

Well, DAMN. EW pretty much sealed the deal on Reese winning---the cover of EW this next week. Damn Damn Damn!

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 2:59pm

I don't understand what people see in her performance!!!!!!!!! She's a cute girl giving a mediocre, shallow performance. I could see right through her! The whole time I just kept thinking "She's acting. Stop acting."

[SallyBrown]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 2:59pm

I hope:

Reese wins
Philip HAS to win or someone will not wake up the next morning.
I too would like to see Crash win, but something is telling me it will be Brokeback. I wish Crash and Good Night, and Good Luck were in seperate years, because I would have liked to see GNAGL win, but I know it won't.

And I'm REALLY hoping on Rachel Weisz to win, but I won't be upset if she doesn't.

Actually I totally will.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 3:04pm

I don't think Jake Gyllenhaal will win at all.

My money's on Paul Giamatti or George Clooney - George is nominated for 3 Oscars, and the only one he really has a shot at is Best Supporting Actor, in my opinion. They may give it to him as a parting gift, or just consider this three nominations enough of an honor and give the award to the very deserving Paul Giamatti. I liked Matt Dillon better - and I would personally vote for Dillon - but I will be happy if CINDERELLA MAN gets SOMETHING.

[broadway86]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 3:52pm

I don't think Jake Gyllenhaal will win at all.

I was thinking the same thing, BUT... they may want to honor Brokeback's acting somehow. A large part of the impact that the film has comes from the acting.

I don't understand what people see in her performance!!!!!!!!! She's a cute girl giving a mediocre, shallow performance.

I don't agree at all. After a second viewing, I really saw all of the insight and soul that she put into her work. She hit these really powerful notes, without ever breaking a sweat. On top of everything else... She's not a musician, but she really made me believe that she had been singing and playing music for years. Updated On: 2/23/06 at 03:52 PM

[PJ]

Posted: 2/23/06 at 11:38pm

I agree with 86. The first time I saw Walk the Line, I didn't leave the theater thinking "Wow! That girl's going to win an Oscar." At that point, she had been nominated for the GG, but there was no win yet and no huge accolades. After returning to the movie a few weeks later, I loved Reese's performance. Upon my first viewing, I missed many of the finer points of her performance.

I love Felicity, especially in Transamerica, but Reese should and will win.

[ReederWI]

Posted: 2/24/06 at 5:48pm

Brokeback Mountain will win the most awards of any other film this year, but it will by no means sweep. And while I loved the performances, none of them will score the Oscar. Heath is fantastic, but is overshadowed by Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote. Michelle Williams is good, but she was barely in the film and the role is not enough to vault her to the podium. Jake Gyllenhaal is also very good, but he is young and I don't think the Academy is ready to award him just yet. He has plenty of time. I really think the stand outs for Supp. Actor are Clooney and Giamatti. Giamatti would get it solely to make up for his two nomination shut outs in previous years. But Clooney is where it's at. He is the darling of LIBERAL Hollywood. He put on weight to play the role in Syriana, he is a good looking guy, plus he proved he can direct, act and write in a span of two films in the same year(and an uncredited producer mention to boot). The BAFTA win for Gyllenhaal was a fluke since Clooney cancelled himself out with votes (he was nommed for both Syriana and Good Night & Good Luck) and Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon either cancelled themselves out in "Crash" or weren't strong enough to pull off the win over Jake. Face it. This is Geroge Clooney's world and we are just living in it.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 11:57am

I really hope CRASH will take Best Picture. I loved, loved, loved BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN but I thought CRASH was one of the most powerful, intelligent, brutally sincere, intriguing, and overall affecting movies in recent memory. I am really pulling for a very possible CRASH upset. It was not possible a few weeks ago but it's become a very strong "maybe" all of a sudden. We'll see on March 5th.........

[Auggie27]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 1:25pm

Clooney is favored to win, and very well may.

But I wish people wouldn't say "THEY will want to give him something.."

In the Oscar voting, there is no "they." You vote in your own sub-category of the profession. So actors vote for actors, most likely deciding upon th work witnessed. It's hard to fathom everyone who puts an X by Clooney will be trying to counter his not winning in other categories in the same year. Only Best Film is a vote tally of the entier academy, so that vote is the only grab-bag "THEY." Everyone keeps suggesting that an early win for Matt Dillon will mean "THEY" have decided to give Best Picture to CRASH. It may mean actors favor Dillon in CRASH and prefer another movie entirely as best pic.

[Jane2]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 1:32pm

I always thought "they" is the pronoun used when you are referring to a group of people. Instead of naming them one by one, or in the case where you don't know their names, it's a shortcut to refer to all of those people. What was wrong with the use of "they" in that post?

[Luscious]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 1:34pm

Auggie... I believe the practice of Actors voting for Actors, Directors voting for Directors, etc., only applies to the nominations. I was under the impression that all Academy members vote in all categories, with the exception of the Short Subject categories, where they need to have seen the films at a special screening in order to be able to vote.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 4:34pm

Yes--only nominations work that way. THEY all vote for all the awards.

[pab]

Posted: 2/25/06 at 5:10pm

I don't agree with the title that this thread has become. Ebert and Roeper have not predicted that Crash will win the Oscar. They both have said that IF THEY PICKED the Oscar Crash would win. Their show entitled, "If We Picked The Winners" airs this weekend and here are all of their picks:

Ebert
Actor - Terrence Howard
Actress - Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actor - Matt Dillon
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams
Best Picture - Crash

Roeper
Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Actress - Felicity Huffman
Supporting Actor - George Clooney
Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz
Best Picture - Crash

Again, they clearly state that these choices are not who they expect will win but who they would vote for if they picked the Oscars.

Updated On: 2/25/06 at 05:10 PM