2006 Oscar Predictions — Page 4

I will be so psyched if Jake wins. If I had to pick a Brokeback peformance that was the most affecting (it is difficult), I would pick Jake.

Thanks, Jane, for your comment. I really think Crash deserves the Best Picture win...on sheer originality.

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While I wasn't particularly impressed with Crash, I do think you have a valid point about the sheer excess of biopics lately. That's not to say that they can't be engrossing and powerful films, most of them are, but there is something a bit curious in the fact that half of the BP nominees over the past two years have been biopics, not to mention the many others that have been in the running for other major awards.

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Yes, I agree. Those characters were so clearly and accurately written, I thought.

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I agree with you, mabel. Biopics can be very moving--take Finding Neverland for example. I was really rooting for that last year. And I heard Squid was excellent and original, too. I'm not too sure if any theatre near me showed it. Sometimes I really hate it when the little films get snubbed. I was surprised to see Capote in the BP run. But, alas, I repeat my support for Crash. This is a tough year.

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All I have to say is that I am so psyched cause Jake is totally gonna win the oscar!

Well, DAMN. EW pretty much sealed the deal on Reese winning---the cover of EW this next week. Damn Damn Damn!

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I hope:

Reese wins
Philip HAS to win or someone will not wake up the next morning.
I too would like to see Crash win, but something is telling me it will be Brokeback. I wish Crash and Good Night, and Good Luck were in seperate years, because I would have liked to see GNAGL win, but I know it won't.

And I'm REALLY hoping on Rachel Weisz to win, but I won't be upset if she doesn't.

Actually I totally will.

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I don't think Jake Gyllenhaal will win at all.

I was thinking the same thing, BUT... they may want to honor Brokeback's acting somehow. A large part of the impact that the film has comes from the acting.

I don't understand what people see in her performance!!!!!!!!! She's a cute girl giving a mediocre, shallow performance.

I don't agree at all. After a second viewing, I really saw all of the insight and soul that she put into her work. She hit these really powerful notes, without ever breaking a sweat. On top of everything else... She's not a musician, but she really made me believe that she had been singing and playing music for years.

Updated On: 2/23/06 at 03:52 PM

Brokeback Mountain will win the most awards of any other film this year, but it will by no means sweep. And while I loved the performances, none of them will score the Oscar. Heath is fantastic, but is overshadowed by Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote. Michelle Williams is good, but she was barely in the film and the role is not enough to vault her to the podium. Jake Gyllenhaal is also very good, but he is young and I don't think the Academy is ready to award him just yet. He has plenty of time. I really think the stand outs for Supp. Actor are Clooney and Giamatti. Giamatti would get it solely to make up for his two nomination shut outs in previous years. But Clooney is where it's at. He is the darling of LIBERAL Hollywood. He put on weight to play the role in Syriana, he is a good looking guy, plus he proved he can direct, act and write in a span of two films in the same year(and an uncredited producer mention to boot). The BAFTA win for Gyllenhaal was a fluke since Clooney cancelled himself out with votes (he was nommed for both Syriana and Good Night & Good Luck) and Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon either cancelled themselves out in "Crash" or weren't strong enough to pull off the win over Jake. Face it. This is Geroge Clooney's world and we are just living in it.

Clooney is favored to win, and very well may.

But I wish people wouldn't say "THEY will want to give him something.."

In the Oscar voting, there is no "they." You vote in your own sub-category of the profession. So actors vote for actors, most likely deciding upon th work witnessed. It's hard to fathom everyone who puts an X by Clooney will be trying to counter his not winning in other categories in the same year. Only Best Film is a vote tally of the entier academy, so that vote is the only grab-bag "THEY." Everyone keeps suggesting that an early win for Matt Dillon will mean "THEY" have decided to give Best Picture to CRASH. It may mean actors favor Dillon in CRASH and prefer another movie entirely as best pic.

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Auggie... I believe the practice of Actors voting for Actors, Directors voting for Directors, etc., only applies to the nominations. I was under the impression that all Academy members vote in all categories, with the exception of the Short Subject categories, where they need to have seen the films at a special screening in order to be able to vote.

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I don't agree with the title that this thread has become. Ebert and Roeper have not predicted that Crash will win the Oscar. They both have said that IF THEY PICKED the Oscar Crash would win. Their show entitled, "If We Picked The Winners" airs this weekend and here are all of their picks:

Ebert
Actor - Terrence Howard
Actress - Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actor - Matt Dillon
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams
Best Picture - Crash

Roeper
Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Actress - Felicity Huffman
Supporting Actor - George Clooney
Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz
Best Picture - Crash

Again, they clearly state that these choices are not who they expect will win but who they would vote for if they picked the Oscars.

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Updated On: 2/25/06 at 05:10 PM