My very early predictions, and I might change my mind:
Actor in a Leading Role - Sean Penn
Actor in a Supporting Role - Heath Ledger
Actress in a Leading Role - Kate Winslet
Actress in a Supporting Role - Penelope Cruz
Animated Feature Film - Wall-E
Art Direction - Benjamin Button
Cinematography - Dark Knight
Costume Design - Australia
Directing - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Documentary Feature - (not sure yet)
Documentary Short - (not sure yet)
Film Editing - Dark Knight
Foreign Language Film - Walz With Bashir
Makeup - Benjamin Button
Music (Score) - Slumdog Millionaire
Music (Song) - (not sure yet)
Best Picture - Benjamin Button
Short Film (Animated) - (not sure yet)
Short Film (Live Action) - (not sure yet)
Sound Editing - Iron Man
Sound Mixing Dark Knight
Visual Effects - Benjamin Button
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Benjamin Button
Writing (Original Screenplay) - Milk
SLUMDOG will certainly still win Best Picture, I think.
Rourke will take Actor, Winslet will probably take Actress (although it should be interesting considering that her role is arguably supporting, whether or not they deem her worthy enough for a best LEAD actress win), Ledger will win Supporting Actor, and I really think Davis will win Best Supporting Actress.
I'm sure my predictions will change but that's what I think for now...I liked THE READER, I didn't love it; and I'm shocked it got as much love as it did. I found REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and even THE DARK KNIGHT to be far better films.
But, I am THRILLED, THRILLED, THRILLED beyond belief that Richard Jenkins and Melissa Leo got nominations. Leo deserves to win...it's just a shame because so does Winslet, she just doesn't deserve a lead actress win for THE READER she deserves a supporting actress win.
Oh, I forgot about Dark Knight's cinematography. Those effects always seem to win. Aww, shucks. I loved Benjamin Button's effects.
I don't know how I feel about all this. As so many others mentioned, I think it's completely ludicrous that Springsteen didn't get a nomination for "The Wrestler."
I'm also surprised about Kate Winslet. I'm rooting for her, though, and at least her votes don't have the potential to split now...I think, for the first time, she's actually the frontrunner.
I think my favorite category is supporting actor, though...we all know Ledger will win, but I think it's hilarious that Downey, Jr. was even nominated. If that doesn't emphasize his role (in an ironic sort of way), I don't know what does!
I'm glad to see Milk and Slumdog Millionaire get so much love, they were definitely the standouts to me (along with The Wrestler, so I'll be thrilled with a Rourke or Penn win).
I'm also with whoever above me said they weren't that into Benjamin Button. I certainly thought it was good, but I was a bit disappointed. We'll see how it all goes...interesting year!
Button for the win.
And, no nod for The Love Guru surprised me.
I'm shocked that Revolutionary Road didn't get more noms. It was one of my favorite films of the year. I really hope Kate wins best actress, and I'm trying to see her single nomination as a good thing because she won't split her votes.
Regarding Springsteen's The Wrestler: was it eligible for best song? I think I remember hearing that a song must be featured in the film and not just the credits for it to be considered, but The Wrestler starts playing at the very end of the movie as the credits are beginning. If it IS eligible, I can't believe it wasn't nominated.
I don't think "we all know" that Ledger will definitely win supporting actor at all. Because he's dead? While that could get some sympathy votes, I like to think at least some of the voters will be looking at performances. Because he was awesome? Well, yes, but he's still the baddie in a comic book movie.
Although I'll be pleased if he does take it, because it could signify a softening towards the less technical side of comic book movies, which could bode well for next year if Watchmen turns out half as awesome as it should. :3 But I'm pretty sure the Academy still have a certain bias against lighter fare. You know and I know that The Dark Knight was anything but light, but it's still a comic book movie, which in the eyes of many means it's far less worthy of awards than other, less... fantastical films.
Is it just me or did anyone else think Michael Shannon's performance in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and Heath's Joker were similar?
It's just concidence because they were both in production around the same time, but still amusing. Might they cancel each other out? :-P
I predict the lowest ratings in Oscar history.
Even with Hugh Jackman as host.
I predict most people will tune in for the Supporting Actor category (to see Heath win), and just like J-Hud's nomination two years ago, the normally early-announced supporting category will be pushed back until late into the broadcast.
But isn't it tradition to always start off the night with the Supporting Actor award? You think they'd mess with that?
I can see the reasoning behind it, though.
No Sally Hawkins annoyed me.
Glad to see Clint Eastwood wasn't given a sentimental nod- I thought Gran Torino teetered on the edge of camp, and Eastwood's grumpy old racist talking through his teeth schtick only worked because all the other acting in that film was terrible.
Martin McDonagh's nomination made me happy- I thought In Bruges was excellent.
The Reader was a disappointing surprise. I sorely wanted to see Wall-E take a Best Picture nod, but the Academy's animated picture ghetto will forever prevent anything was audacious as that.
The Dark Knight, albeit a good movie, is not ultimately deserving of a Best Picture nomination. The last act of that movie became convoluted and ridiculous (the cell-phone sonar deus ex machina thing especially). Heath Ledger was the true standout in the film, and I hope he wins.
I am rooting for Milk, and am largely sick of the Slumdog steamroller. It was a good film, yeah, but in the end nothing truly impressive.
Priest, that's why I said "normally early-announced supporting category." Two years ago we had to wait until the 3rd hour for Supporting Actress because most everyone was anticipating J-Huds win.
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/16/07
I haven't seen Milk or The Reader yet, but of the three reamining Best Picture noms, I thought Frost/Nixon was the best, but I bet it's Benjamin or Slumdog that wins it, and I'm leaning towards Slumdog.
What, no nominations for The Boy in the Striped Pajamas!?
I was suprised that Brad Pitt got nominated over Clint Eastwood and Leo DiCaprio(who bot gave better performances) I guess they need the ratings
Heath will b/c the Academy loves a dramatic moment.
It's a lock. And so is his standing O.
Broadway Star Joined: 4/16/07
Very surprised at the love for THE READER!
I'm glad to see Michael Shannon was nominated for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, but I think Kate Winslet's hopes of winning her much-deserved Oscar just went down the drain. Her performance in THE READER was definitely supporting and I think she will, unfortunately, be vastly overshadowed.
I'm also shocked that AUSTRALIA was not nominated for Cinematography.
"Her performance in THE READER was definitely supporting"
I disagree. The movie was all about her. She was the lead. Who would you say was the lead actress in that film?
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/31/69
If Heath Ledger were alive, there would be NO CHANCE he'd have been nominated. None.
well, there would have been a chance, but he would never have made it I agree.
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/20/04
Yes, Kate had the only large female role in The Reader, but she really didn't have a lot of actual screen time in the movie.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman had a bigger role in Doubt in terms of actual minutes, and he is Supporting.
"I sorely wanted to see Wall-E take a Best Picture nod, but the Academy's animated picture ghetto will forever prevent anything was audacious as that. "
Disney's Beauty and the Beast was nominated for Best Picture.
Among many other things, I'm mortified that Sally Hawkins and Bruce Springsteen were snubbed.
However, good for the very deserving Richard Jenkins, Michael Shannon, and Melissa Leo.
I agree with you Joe...and that is why I would rather the award go to someone who is alive and could use it to boost their career.
"Phillip Seymour Hoffman had a bigger role in Doubt in terms of actual minutes, and he is Supporting."
Yes, but Viola Davis had one scene, a few minutes in Doubt and she's also nominated for supporting. My point is that it's not the aggregate of minutes on screen, but the actual role an actor has.
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