ABC Wash Post Poll: 64% of Dems Think Hillary Should Stay in Race

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 8:30pm

What the F*CK?!?!? Did I switch to Obama too soon?

===

ABC NEWS

No Rush for Clinton to Go, but it's Still Advantage Obama

Poll Shows 64 Percent of Dems Say Clinton Should Remain in the Race

ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER

May 12, 2008 —

Pushing back against political punditry, more than six in 10 Democrats say there's no rush for Hillary Clinton to leave the presidential race even as Barack Obama consolidates his support for the nomination and scores solidly in general-election tests.

Despite Obama's advantage in delegates and popular vote, 64 percent of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say Clinton should remain in the race. Even among Obama's supporters, 42 percent say so.

[more at link]
Poll Shows 64 Percent of Dems Say Clinton Should Remain in the Race

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 9:13pm

She should. And on June 4 or there abouts after, she should simply suspend her campaign.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 9:28pm

PalJoey asks "Is West Virginia Hillary's Rose's Turn--or her Everything's Coming Up Roses?"

[romantico]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 9:42pm

I find it curious that the SD said last Wednesday after Hers and Obama's win that she should stay in the race. This is not coming from Hillary's camp but the SD.Why? If they are so certain they want Obama, why ask her to stay in? Also, who are these people in West Virgina who are voting for her? What about the people in Texas and Ohio and Florida and Pennsylvania? Why don't they count?

I think it comes down to having a popular candidate who a lot of people like who might fizzle out after he gets the nominee vs. a candidate who people don't like, but can pull in BIG need to win states. I think at this point Obama needs her more than she needs him. IMO, the SD hope he can win, but seem more certain that she can win. They are in a very difficult position.

Updated On: 5/12/08 at 09:42 PM

[tazber]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 9:59pm

I'm still an ardent Hillary supporter. I'm not in the Obama camp.
Tomorrow we're gonna hear how he doesn't have the "white, blue collar" vote.
How the popular vote is going to be more evenly split than predicted.
How it's not over until it's over.

And then some of the fickle supes will flip back to her.

He's still gonna get the nomination (I sadly admit), but she's not done yet. And she shouldn't be. Roughly half the party wants her over him.

[romantico]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 10:11pm

As Hillary says, "Its not over til the lady in the pantsuit says its over".

I'm with you Taz. I hope I like Obama more come election time than I do now. I'd like to like and be proud of the candidate I vote for.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 10:33pm

Taz - I disagree. Don't be surprised to see the Obama campaign announce more superdelegate commitments on Wednesday. My guess is that they're holding some back in anticipation of the West Virginia loss.

I think she should stay in, at least through Oregon and Kentucky. By then, if he has secured the majority of the committed delegates, it may be hard to justify staying in the race so the people of Puerto Rico can be heard, since they don't vote in the general election.

[BkCollector]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 11:22pm

This is just a media bull**** campaign to keep interested in a lame duck candidate until Obama is official. Don't fall for it.

Im not saying this to diss Hillary, it's just how the media works. You should be wise to it, that's all. Be discerning.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 11:33pm

Or it's the reality we need to work with:

May 10 Electoral Votes: Obama 254 McCain 273 Ties 11
May 12 Electoral Votes: Obama 237 McCain 290 Ties 11

May 10 Electoral Votes: Clinton 280 McCain 258
May 12 Electoral Votes: Clinton 280 McCain 241 Ties 17

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 11:41pm

JRB - electoral maps in May are anything but reality. In June of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed both Ross Perot and George HW Bush. In May of 2000, half of John McCain's supporters said they would never vote for George W Bush.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/12/08 at 11:44pm

I am praying that is true here.

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 12:00am

PJ, I assume that you saw Bill's face last Tuesday and knew that it was not likely that Clinton could overcome O's lead.

HC can set her own timetable because she is paying the tab.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 12:22am

it's not about the lead now--face reality, man

it's about the necessary Democratic electorate that the Obama campaign has forgotten

without whom there is only defeat

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 12:27am

PJ, I was answering this question: Did I switch to Obama too soon?

[Namaste]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 12:30am

I still plan to vote for Clinton/Obama in November!

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 1:19am

Unless Clinton takes back the popular vote lead by June 4, Obama's campaign would have to crumble for her to be the nominee. Therefore, I doubt a Clinton/Obama ticket can happen. Obama/Clinton? I hope.

[Luscious]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:23am

The nomination is Obama's. I don't care if Hillary wins West Virginia by a 90/10 margin. She doesn't have the numbers. She's welcome to stay in it until the bitter end and continue to spend her and her contributor’s money, but unless Obama asks her to be his running mate (which is appearing less and less likely with each passing day), it's all over for her. Of course the media is going to play up her wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, but they're not going to amount to a Hill (pun intended) of beans. And I love the way Obama has moved on and isn't even wasting his time campaigning against her any more. He's got bigger fish to fry and he’s already heating up the pan!

Updated On: 5/13/08 at 09:23 AM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:28am

But, if on June 4, she leads in the popular vote, PJ and I abandoned her too soon because it takes us back to a preMay 6 game.

And don't underestimate a stomping tonite giving supers the jitters.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:31am

Both campaigns will be spinning the results. If Clinton wins by as much as everyone expects, she'll try to make this into some sort of 'game changer'. They may even try to resurrect their popular vote claim again, by including Florida & Michigan.

Obama's campaign will downplay the results, praising her strengths as a candidate and the amount of time and effort she put in over the last week. Don't be surprised if Obama announces more superdelegates tomorrow.

[romantico]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:34am

The Democrats want Obama because he is popular NOW. He CLEARLY has the nomination.

However, Hillary has shown she can beat McCaine but not Obama.

The Democrats would much rather have Obama win the nomination but loose the election. I'll support and vote for Obama, but there is no doubt in my mind he will loose in November. If Hillary joins him as VP, his chances may improve.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:35am

It's not spin if she wins by landslides in these two states.

It means Obama need help swinging the swing states.

The size of the landslides will determine the severity of his need.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:39am

PJ - swing states change from election to election, and can vary based on candidates. Clinton's swing states vs McCain may be very different from Obama's. She would certainly do better in states like West Virginia & Kentucky, but he stands a much better chance in Virginia & Maryland.

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:44am

There may also be states in the South up for grab that Obama could win that Clinton could not.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:45am

He also polls much better than her in states like Nebraska and Colorado.

[Patronus]

Posted: 5/13/08 at 9:59am

Math is math.

The (credible) super delegates aren't going to flip back and forth. If the Super Delegates start committing to Obama right now along with the math that doesn't work for Hillary without the super delegates they are effectively removing themselves from having to do this at the convention - which no one, including Hillary wants to happen.

The more Supers that commit to Obama before June 4, the more likely that Hillary can ends this before it becomes even more damaging for the party.

I still plan on voting for an Obama/Richardson ticket in November.