Oscar noms thread with link to streaming announcement — Page 6

My ARGO prediction comes in part from the fact that there is no precedent for it. Even something like DRIVING MISS DAISY is different because that didn't have the Globe or DGA nods--Affleck won the Globe and I believe he'll get the DGA as well. I think voters will largely see ARGO as the underdog (crazy how a snub for Director turned it from Goliath to David), and support it in ways that might be unexpected. The movie also holds up really well, it has an incredible climax, and it doesn't overstay it's welcome (seriously, as Besty said, why didn't Spielberg end LINCOLN at the right time?). I know the PGA is not the end line but Kris Tapley makes a really good observation on InContention that of all the precursors the PGA is the only one that uses a preferential ballot that is just like the one the Oscars recently adopted.
Also, I wouldn't count out SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, talk about a movie with a great climax, like ARGO, it's an example of a Hollywood genre movie at its best. The movie is doing very well financially, it only had a 7% drop in grosses this week. I expect Spielberg to win Director but SILVER could get Picture.
Either way, the race is very exciting as opposed to some other years.

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I think this is where it sits:

Life of Pi takes all of the technical awards it can a la Hugo last year.

Lincoln gets adapted Screenplay nod and Best Actor. Biggest sign of trouble is if Kushner's screenplay does not win. Best Supporting Actor and Director still up in air. If it starts to get technical awards, I think it is safe and wins Best Picture.

Silver Linings Playbook is still game for all of its categories besides Best Supporting Actress as that is Anne Hathaway's to lose. Lawrence has best shot. DeNiro good shot. Russell, BP, Screenplay, and Cooper are dark horses. Expect it to sweep The Spirit Awards. Harvey's going all in after both he and Megan Ellison (Zero Dark Thirty producer) both left The Master at the awards alter since October.

Amour takes Original Screenplay and Best Foreign Language film. Former is basically Haneke's version of the Best Director honors. Riva a dark horse and the American-inclined awards are not even so much as nominating her so I am thinking the Best Actress precursor may be the BAFTAs.

Also let's remember Beasts of the Southern Wild were not eligible under SAG. Honestly, I'd love for it to get Adapted Screenplay.

Zero Dark Thirty is definitely a film that could get shut-out. Jessica needs to have stronger showings at other awards (Jennifer still has the Spirit Awards so the BAFTAs are big). Basically, she has gone on to say this nomination is not just for her but for Kathryn which does not really soften the critics of the film within AMPAs. Boal's screenplay is in a really tough category so that leaves Sound and Film Editing that I think it more than deserves but I see Life of Pi monopolizing the technical side (and the fact Greig Fraser got ignored in cinematography makes me not as confident in the film doing well in its technical categories). Also note William Goldenberg is nominated for both his editing in Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. So Goldenberg could win but there is going to have to be patience for the reading of what is in the envelope since he got nominated twice.

Argo has great shot at Adapted screenplay, Picture, and Supporting Actor. If Desplat score wins, I think it's a sign it has won BP. No idea why that is my reasoning but that was the more 'prestige-y', 'Oscar bait-y' part of the film for me. I would be shocked if it wins technical, especially over Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, and more technical driven films in the category but movies with momentum sometimes get off the reservation awards.

As for Director, I could easily see it going to Benh Zeitlin or Ang Lee. Spielberg may get it (and how weird if it is just him and DDL) but it would not shock me if those two are the ones who win. Haneke winning would put me on cloud-9. Russell winning would just make me roll my eyes going, 'That Harvey!' I love Russell's other work and absolutely defend his nomination for The Fighter that many people at the time considered Christopher Nolan's spot. I just found the direction of the film distracting and his spot belonged to one of the 'snubs' than any other nomination.

Updated On: 1/28/13 at 10:31 PM

I think people are vastly overestimating Silver Linings Playbook's chances for Best Picture. When was the last time a romantic comedy took home the top prize? As good as they are and as much as people love them, they don't win Best Picture more than once every 60 years.

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I'm not taking anything away from SLP as a movie, only that Oscar history shows the Academy doesn't vote for them to win.

I just looked at the entire list of 84 Best Pictures for romantic comedies:

It Happened One Night
You Can't Take It With You
Annie Hall
Shakespeare In Love



There are a couple of other romance films with comedy as well as drama (The Artist, Terms of Endearment), but I wouldn't classify them as "romantic comedies."

I almost wouldn't classify You Can't Take It With You, either, since it's as much of a "social message picture" as it is romantic comedy (the Stewart/Arthur plot line).

So that would be three ... and a half.

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Updated On: 1/28/13 at 06:47 AM

I think the directors wing on Affleck just was into a.) honoring Haneke who has been long overdue b.) finding Zeitlin's debut irresistible c.) falling for Weinstein's charms with Russell (who has sort of hit his stride while staying true to his eccentric, madcap style) and d.) Spielberg and Lee were locks based on seniority. I still think Bigelow had the backlash going against her (which Sony was very incredibly ill-prepared for and when you think about it, they really let Fincher and The Social Network down a couple of years ago for lesser controversy) in addition to why Affleck got nominated so I think that even if Zeitlin and Russell were out she would not be in their place anyway.

And who knows how much precedent we can use now with the expanded Best Picture category. There was sort of a reason for doing that and it probably was to not have that much symmetry and synthesis with all of the other categories. That said, consensus in the categories the last couple of years has really made for a boring telecast that did make the extra nominations in the BP category seem obsolete.

Wreck-It Ralph won the Annies for Best Animated Feature.

Skyfall, Life of Pi, and Anna Karenina each took awards from the Art Directors guild (which is pretty ghettoized with separate categories for period, contemporary, and fantasy).

And Ben Affleck won the DGA (this "Poor Ben" stuff is getting out of control, then again I was lukewarm on Argo) and Argomentum is strong.

Spielberg will get the Oscar for Best Director.

Argo will win Best Picture.

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Don't forget in 2003 Rob Marshall won the DGA but lost the Oscar.

I find it insane (in a good way) that Argo has won the Critics Choice for Best Director and Film, it's won the PGA, Ben won the DGA and the Globe for Best Director (as well as Best Film) and he still didn't get an Oscar nomination. I wonder if the Academy is considering a re-count? :P

I also wonder if Affleck is prepping a speech with a couple of zingers for when "Argo" does win Best Picture, because it's going to ... and I'm okay with that. :)

Don't forget in 2003 Rob Marshall won the DGA but lost the Oscar.

Yeah, but Rob was nominated for for both awards, so he was in the running.

I actually wondered if anybody was looking into a recount this year, especially since there were reports of "issues" with the new electronic voting prior to the nominations being announced. I assume any decisions have already been made, carried out, or dismissed.

It is what it is.

I do feel that in a year with no clear-cut Best Picture choice, Affleck's snub, along with the recent wins from the GG, PGA, and DGA, are just the pushes this film needs to break away as the frontrunner and win.

And I'll bet if you asked Ben, if he had a choice between winning the Best Director Oscar and seeing Lincoln take Best Picture, or having the reverse happen (which is likely now) with Spielberg winning Director, and Affleck's movie winning the top award, he'd say things worked out just fine.

We shall see!

But I'll bet Affleck, George Clooney, and Grant Heslov can clear another spot on the mantle at the end of the month.

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Updated On: 2/3/13 at 10:35 AM

This could be a replay of 1995 where Ron Howard's Apollo 13 won pretty much everywhere until Oscars night where it went to Mel Gibson and Braveheart (Ron Howard also not nominated then). Still, I think social media and the press' reaction to the 'snub' was a great story and catalyst to push that instead of having Ben Affleck wait for his next 'big' film to get him a statuette. It will be now with the Best Picture category as the substitute. If it doesn't win BP, it will be an upset.

Now for Director, people seem to forget Spielberg's spotty history with the Academy. I really don't see him getting a statue by default a la Saving Private Ryan. I think new kid Ben Zeitlin, Ang Lee, and Michael Haneke are in pretty comfortable position for the category.

Yes, SM2, Shakespeare In Love is a comedy, despite your fixed frown.
It won several awards that year in "Comedy" categories.
And I laughed a lot. It's fair to say I wasn't alone.
EDIT: I'll go even further and say it's one of my favorite Best Picture winners of the last 20 years.
Besty, you're awesome. I couldn't agree with you more. It's a fantastic comedy and definitely one of my favorite Best Picture winners. So much better than the likes of CRASH, SLUMDOG, and BEAUTIFUL MIND.
Spielberg would also be winning a third Oscar which will be on people's minds when they vote, not to mention the fact that all the other nominated films have a lot of passionate support. I wouldn't be surprised if Spielberg won, but keep in mind that he didn't win a single critic's prize (neither did Russell for that matter) and the film hasn't really gotten much support in Best Picture races across the awards. Spielberg is the safe choice to predict, but I'd argue the other four nominees are very much in the race for different opinions (LIFE OF PIE is *huge* abroad, SILVER LININGS is beloved by the Academy judging from a lot of reports and is doing extremely well at the box office in the weeks leading up to the Oscar, AMOUR won the Palm D'Or and has garnered a lot of high profile awards for Director, and BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD has a lot of supporters). This is the race that's primed for a surprise and I hope we see one.

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I was rather chagrined to see ARGO winning ensemble at the SAGS. Both Lincoln and SLP are much more actor driven. Argo was fine, but not because of the acting. It was a more plot driven film and for an award that is given to best acting ensemble I thought it was under deserving. I am pulling for SLP or Lincoln on Oscar night.

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To me, ARGO was a perfect film. I also am rooting for Jennifer Lawrence.

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