Oscar noms thread with link to streaming announcement — Page 7

Argo wins the BAFTA as does Affleck for directing.

Waltz also won BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor. Best Supporting Actor is still the most wide-open but BAFTA is really good at predicting the supporting categories. I really think Arkin (who only won the SAG award with the Ensemble and as **shocking** his last Oscar win was, he at least won the BAFTA and Spirit Awards) has really fallen out and it is Waltz vs. Jones with Hoffman as a dark horse. Be odd if Waltz won for 2 Tarantino films in 2 tries. I know there is loyalty to Quentin for igniting his career but he really needs to spread his wings on taking more non-pulpy, pseudo-exploitation Tarantino films (though he did try with Carnage his filmography between Django and Basterds is so disarmingly schlocky mainstream).

And this was Jennifer Lawrence (not really that extreme) and David O. Russell's reactions to hearing that Riva won for Best Actress.

https://twitter.com/sam_clements/status/300736180037746688/photo/1/large

Russell pre-Fighter was notorious for his temper. George Clooney punched him on-set of Three Kings and there was that notorious video of him yelling off-screen to Lily Tomlin on the set of I Heart Huckabees as Dustin Hoffman and Isabelle Huppert comfortably sat still to wait for the scene to start.

BAFTA is really good at predicting the supporting roles. They got Arkin and Tilda Swinton right, most notably. So Waltz winning for two Tarantino films, sort of like Dianne Wiest winning for two Woody Allen movies (except with a nod for Parenthood in-between). My only issue with Waltz is that this is such a blatant case of category fraud but in-line with Tatum O'Neal category fraud. I don't think such a thing actually **loses** Oscars, hence the tradition.

Oddly, I am more down on the SLP screenplay (and the crazy camera-work) with the characters than the acting.

The question is, what else will Argo win besides Picture. I think likely William Goldenberg for Editing (even if Goldenberg's work in ZD30 was much more intricate craftsmanship). Terrio's screenplay is still in the mix but I think Russell has emerged as challenger if for just the trade-off of not getting Director. But it would be weird if Argo wins only picture. It is possible. Life of Pi could sweep tech categories and the Best Editing indicator has had instances of either not going to a BP winner but a contender or just a genre film that had no chance to begin with.

I still don't understand how Ben Affleck was snubbed of an Oscar nod for Directing. HOW?

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" I still don't understand how Ben Affleck was snubbed of an Oscar nod for Directing. HOW?"

Ang Lee- lock
Spielberg- lock
Russell- Harvey Weinstein but also a work that is a call-back to his madcap, screwball comedies.
Haneke- Well-deserved buzz for this work, that won at Cannes, that transcends his equally praised but very polarizing, dour previous works. He's the Terence Malick nomination of this year.
Zeitlin- They liked the kid a lot and probably figured other people would vote for Affleck.

Not nominated:
Paul Thomas Anderson
Kathryn Bigelow
Wes Anderson
Quentin Tarantino
Tom Hooper (only mentioning this because he got a DGA nod)

That's a deep bench and it probably scattered.

On a more cynical note, the Director's branch is an extremely old boy network. They remember the last time Affleck got an Oscar from AMPAS- and he sort of blew it for a while. But that is just a theory. I can see some members of the branch either taking for granted his nomination to place more emphasis on the work of Zeitlin or Haneke or simply they are immune to the charm overload of Clooney, Heslov, and Affleck himself while the rest of AMPAS melts.

Just a head's up to remind everyone that it's '31 Days of Oscar" over at Turner Classic Movies. Fire up the DVR--the great movies are screening 'round the clock.

It's a musical block right now:

Currently: 'An American in Paris'.

Coming up today:

'Singin' in the Rain'
'Seven Brides for Seven Brothers'
'Gigi'

Tommorrow you can catch several non-musical films that seem to crop up repeatedly here on the BWW boards:

'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof'
'Doctor Zhivago'
'Blow Up'.





Link to TCM Schedule

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"Argo" will probably win more than one award. It's definitely going to win Picture. I smell a win for Editing, Adapted Screenplay and possibly Supporting Actor (though I'd love for DeNiro to win).

Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoe-in, though I wish it would go to Bradley Cooper or Juaquin Phoenix. Such strong performances and Day-Lewis doesn't need a third (for a performance that is just as much about the make-up and costumes as it is about the acting).

Jennifer Lawrence was schmacting? Good god, what must you think of the child from "Beasts of Southern Wild"??!! I still can't get behind that nonsensical, absurd, and loony nomination.

I think you're right about editing and possibly screenplay. So Argo could win 2 or 3.

It's a toss of the coin between De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, although my money is on Jones. Still, a De Niro win is a very real possibility now.

And I think Jennifer Lawrence will take home Best Actress.

(And Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway are locks.)

By the way, here's a nifty CNN poll. Nothing scientific about it, still it's fun to fill out and see what "the masses" of CNN readers think is going to win. They aren't too far off the mark, if at all, actually.


CNN Oscar poll

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I will say that there are at least a few major categories that aren't locks, and that makes for a more exciting awards show.

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I also agree that the lack of "locks" is great.

Although I'm going to predict Argo for picture I'm not that confident about it.

I've noticed that the best actress and supporting actor predictions have been changing all over the place.

Suddenly I'm reading DeNiro and Watts as having late in the game momentum.

Personally, my predictions are Riva and Lee Jones, but I'm not betting any money on them.

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I have also heard the Watts stuff but I also think this has happened to already build this commentary around her as overdue for next year because she has the Princess Di biopic out for later in the year that has everybody thinking gold statuette. I am also hearing all sorts of things that Amour being the least seen of the BP nominees despite its surprising amount of nominations and due to Riva's age, health, and being a foreigner, she has not campaigned which does really effect the process. But the fact she did get nominated by the actors wing without the SAG or GG indicators shows her strength and that was just half the battle for her. I've also heard that with Chastain she is either going to get helped by the rise of Riva and the concerns that Lawrence is too young and unpolished or that she is a spoiler to Lawrence by splitting the vote with her that only helps Riva. Leaning toward a toss-up of Riva and Lawrence.

Regarding Best Picture, I think it is Argo's to lose (note the preferential ballot). But I wouldn't discount Harvey Weinstein and there has been talk that Silver Linings Playbook (who are also helped by the preferential ballot) is gaining steam but that could just mean 'surprises' in other categories.

It is unclear how much the Academy really likes Django Unchained. Even with the indicators, I am not sure Tarantino so much as wins for screenplay. His last film that had a similar vengeance plot also won a lot of the indicators until the WGAs came along and he lost to Mark Boal there and at the Oscars. This time with a vengeance plot in America's own backyard, no WGA nomination and competing against Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Mark Boal again, and Michael Haneke- who might get a consolation prize in the Screenplay category. I really do think the WGA and DGA non-nominations speak volumes, not to mention no SAG nod for Waltz. Plus, Weinstein has his focus on SLP and Sony/Columbia Pictures has been really awful with its Best Picture nominees in recent years (I mean, really, it let Zero Dark Thirty get clobbered before its wide release like I have not seen with any recent nominees ever and Sony's handling of it around the awards circuit, such as not sending out screeners to SAG that really hurt Chastain's chances, was equally terrible). Would Christolph Waltz really get 2 Oscars in so few years because the Academy see him for Quentin Tarantino what Dianne Wiest was for Woody Allen? I feel like Hoffman (I feel like his chances dissipated when both Harvey and Megan Ellison had bigger fish to fry with campaigning for SLP and Zero Dark Thirty) and Jones come off as more deserved two-time winners than Arkin and Waltz do. That said, DeNiro seems to have what Meryl Streep had last year with Harvey planting the seed of this legendary actor has not had an Oscar win in decades and winning a third time puts him in the pantheon above all of his peers.

I am not even getting into Director. Any of them aside from Zeitlin (because getting a win for a motion picture debut just seems a little too cruel of fate) has some theoretical shot but it really is Russell vs. Spielberg vs. Lee.

I thought this awards season would be more spread out but industry really loves when scripts, films, and directors have Hollywood as a star. I thought Argo's staying power would not last this long despite this factor of 'Hollywood saves the world' being prevalent since the first trailer appeared this past summer but the coldness toward Lincoln and the ZD30 controversy really gave it a second act. Still, I thought Kushner's script would be getting more respect over newcomer Terrio. I think when Argo won the USC Scripter, an award that honors the original work as well as the adaptation, showed Lincoln in a vulnerable position when Tony Kushner AND Doris Kearns Goodwin got passed over.

Even though Boal has lost to Tarantino in head to head showings, I think he is in a good position for screenplay. I feel the Academy will either acknowledge Zero Dark Thirty with just one (and the tech categories are looking vulnerable for it to win) or none at all. I actually think Haneke is Boal's biggest competition for the category. Who knows how much AMPAS likes the images of American slavery through an exploitation pastiche lens. They passed over Inglourious Basterds so it would not shocking if they also passed over Django Unchained. It should be noted that all of the original screenplay front-runners (Boal, Tarantino, and Haneke) all run under Sony/Sony Classics/Columbia Pictures. Tarantino also has Weinstein but Harvey is running with Silver Linings Playbook to the bitter end.