Oscar noms thread with link to streaming announcement- Page 7

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 2/3/13 at 9:41pm

I was rather chagrined to see ARGO winning ensemble at the SAGS. Both Lincoln and SLP are much more actor driven. Argo was fine, but not because of the acting.

I disagree, I thought the ensemble of ARGO was so effortless that the general opinion is that it wasn't an acting fete. I'd say every actor was so perfectly cast and blended so well with the rest of the ensemble that I definitely understand why they won the SAG.

[ucjrdude902]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 5:32pm

Argo wins the BAFTA as does Affleck for directing.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 6:33pm

Biggest awards trends from BAFTAS are that David O. Russell won for Adapted Screenplay. Previous indicators had it going to either Kushner and Terrio (Argo) but maybe Harvey has something up his sleeve. Russell is my dark horse for director category. Lee is front-runner, imo. Academy and Spielberg are not really cozy bedfellows while Lee is the nicest guy in industry and SLP is going full-stop, even amplifying the more dramatic aspects of the film to not be perceived as a comedy aka Best Picture unicorn.

Riva won for Best Actress and thank goodness a major Oscar precursor finally acknowledged the performance. That said, I want to take back my earlier theory that Actress winner at BAFTA wins Oscar. Some people in the industry remark that of all the BP nominees, Amour is by far the least seen and some AMPAS members are not urgent to watch its screeners because 1.) subject matter of death 2.) Haneke is the most polarizing nominee of the bunch and Oscars past shows this and 3.) subtitles is an immediate turn-off for a good amount of AMPAS members. So I still think Jennifer vs. Jessica and it is a matter of the Harvey factor and other factors (age, genre, and being so toed to Cooper's character) working for and against Lawrence and whether or not ZD30 controversy hurts Chastain's chances after all these weeks.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 7:39pm

Waltz also won BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor. Best Supporting Actor is still the most wide-open but BAFTA is really good at predicting the supporting categories. I really think Arkin (who only won the SAG award with the Ensemble and as **shocking** his last Oscar win was, he at least won the BAFTA and Spirit Awards) has really fallen out and it is Waltz vs. Jones with Hoffman as a dark horse. Be odd if Waltz won for 2 Tarantino films in 2 tries. I know there is loyalty to Quentin for igniting his career but he really needs to spread his wings on taking more non-pulpy, pseudo-exploitation Tarantino films (though he did try with Carnage his filmography between Django and Basterds is so disarmingly schlocky mainstream).

And this was Jennifer Lawrence (not really that extreme) and David O. Russell's reactions to hearing that Riva won for Best Actress.

https://twitter.com/sam_clements/status/300736180037746688/photo/1/large

Russell pre-Fighter was notorious for his temper. George Clooney punched him on-set of Three Kings and there was that notorious video of him yelling off-screen to Lily Tomlin on the set of I Heart Huckabees as Dustin Hoffman and Isabelle Huppert comfortably sat still to wait for the scene to start.

[east side story]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 8:30pm

David O. Russell is and always has been a total jackass. That being said, his screenplay for SLP and De Niro's performance were the only award-worthy aspects of that film that I can support. I sincerely hope Jennifer Lawrence does not win for such a slight performance. The scene in the diner with Bradley Cooper where she screams about how she's slut with a dead husband was one of the most embarrassing moments of "shmacting" I've ever seen make the final cut of a film. I literally cringed and sunk into my seat with that line delivery.

If one thing was made apparent after this evening's BAFTAs, it is that Argo is now quite the shoe-in for Best Picture. Same for Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway. Director is still up in the air, with Spielberg being the easy prediction. I'd like to see Ang Lee win though.

I still have no clue who will win Supporting Actor.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 8:41pm

BAFTA is really good at predicting the supporting roles. They got Arkin and Tilda Swinton right, most notably. So Waltz winning for two Tarantino films, sort of like Dianne Wiest winning for two Woody Allen movies (except with a nod for Parenthood in-between). My only issue with Waltz is that this is such a blatant case of category fraud but in-line with Tatum O'Neal category fraud. I don't think such a thing actually **loses** Oscars, hence the tradition.

Oddly, I am more down on the SLP screenplay (and the crazy camera-work) with the characters than the acting.

The question is, what else will Argo win besides Picture. I think likely William Goldenberg for Editing (even if Goldenberg's work in ZD30 was much more intricate craftsmanship). Terrio's screenplay is still in the mix but I think Russell has emerged as challenger if for just the trade-off of not getting Director. But it would be weird if Argo wins only picture. It is possible. Life of Pi could sweep tech categories and the Best Editing indicator has had instances of either not going to a BP winner but a contender or just a genre film that had no chance to begin with.

[beautywickedlover]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 9:41pm

After the BAFTAs tonight I think Best Animated Film is a tossup between 'Brave' and 'Wreck-It-Ralph'.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 9:47pm

I still don't understand how Ben Affleck was snubbed of an Oscar nod for Directing. HOW?

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 10:14pm

It's the weirdest thing but it sure has made for an insanely interesting race. I have no idea how Director, Supporting Actor or Lead Actress will go. I'm gonna say that Spielberg probably wins for LINCOLN but the movie has yet to show that it has the passionate support in that particular category to win the award, like I said before, Spielberg has won zero directing prizes for this film. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tommy Lee Jones go the way of Ruby Dee with Waltz, or even DeNiro who is campaigning like crazy, taking the big prize. And God, lead actress is so interesting this year! I really want Jennifer Lawrence to win for what I thought was a masterful performance, but Emanuelle Riva is gaining so much buzz and people who have seen the film all rave about her so I think if enough Academy members actually watch the movie she'll win. Chastain has lost a lot of buzz but she could always surprise. What a great year for the Oscars!

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/10/13 at 10:47pm

" I still don't understand how Ben Affleck was snubbed of an Oscar nod for Directing. HOW?"

Ang Lee- lock
Spielberg- lock
Russell- Harvey Weinstein but also a work that is a call-back to his madcap, screwball comedies.
Haneke- Well-deserved buzz for this work, that won at Cannes, that transcends his equally praised but very polarizing, dour previous works. He's the Terence Malick nomination of this year.
Zeitlin- They liked the kid a lot and probably figured other people would vote for Affleck.

Not nominated:
Paul Thomas Anderson
Kathryn Bigelow
Wes Anderson
Quentin Tarantino
Tom Hooper (only mentioning this because he got a DGA nod)

That's a deep bench and it probably scattered.

On a more cynical note, the Director's branch is an extremely old boy network. They remember the last time Affleck got an Oscar from AMPAS- and he sort of blew it for a while. But that is just a theory. I can see some members of the branch either taking for granted his nomination to place more emphasis on the work of Zeitlin or Haneke or simply they are immune to the charm overload of Clooney, Heslov, and Affleck himself while the rest of AMPAS melts.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 2/11/13 at 1:20am

It could be much simpler than that. The directors wing of the Academy is very international and very independent thinking. it's quite possible they simply voted for the five who, collectively, they thought were most deserving. It really shouldn't be a "snub" to not be nominated when Spielberg, Lee, Zeitlin, Haneke and Russell, all of whom are respectable choices, are.

Choosing these five doesn't mean they didn't like the work of Tarantino,
Bigelow and Affleck. It may simply mean they, as a group, genuinely preferred the five they chose to nominate.

[Addison D.]

Posted: 2/16/13 at 1:10pm

Just a head's up to remind everyone that it's '31 Days of Oscar" over at Turner Classic Movies. Fire up the DVR--the great movies are screening 'round the clock.

It's a musical block right now:

Currently: 'An American in Paris'.

Coming up today:

'Singin' in the Rain'
'Seven Brides for Seven Brothers'
'Gigi'

Tommorrow you can catch several non-musical films that seem to crop up repeatedly here on the BWW boards:

'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof'
'Doctor Zhivago'
'Blow Up'.





Link to TCM Schedule

[best12bars]

Posted: 2/16/13 at 6:01pm

Addison, I love "Oscar month" on TCM. I always discover a few gems I'd never seen before.

And as for this year's awards ...

Best Picture: ARGO!

Winner of 1 Academy Award, and nothing else.

Look for it to enter the history books as the first winner since Grand Hotel to pick up exactly ONE award.

[OrdinaryJukebox]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 9:45am

"Argo" will probably win more than one award. It's definitely going to win Picture. I smell a win for Editing, Adapted Screenplay and possibly Supporting Actor (though I'd love for DeNiro to win).

Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoe-in, though I wish it would go to Bradley Cooper or Juaquin Phoenix. Such strong performances and Day-Lewis doesn't need a third (for a performance that is just as much about the make-up and costumes as it is about the acting).

Jennifer Lawrence was schmacting? Good god, what must you think of the child from "Beasts of Southern Wild"??!! I still can't get behind that nonsensical, absurd, and loony nomination.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 10:14am

Argo will probably win for Editing (it won the ACE Eddie Awards, though because the films are categorized by genre Silver Linings Playbook also won). Supporting Actor at this point is impossible. Very few actors have won that few win indicators, Arkin only won with the ensemble which sent shock waves among the industry that it could win BP than his own candidacy, so I really do not see him as a factor in his race. DeNiro, also without any accolades, is said to have a shot but I think that has more to do with 'Give him a third Oscar'. So Waltz vs. Jones vs. DeNiro.

WGA awards are happening tonight. I still have a harder time accepting Terrio winning over Kushner, and Russell's BAFTA win makes me think we have a 3-way race, but I think in Adapted Screenplay will get its indicator on who wins the Oscar. Original Screenplay WGA feels a little toothless without Haneke nominated but hey, any screenplay award without Tarantino (not nominated) awarded for his weaker efforts is fine by me.

At this point I am positive Argo wins two. End of tonight possibly three. Oddly, Life of Pi or Les Miz may end up with more on Oscar night thanks to the tech category.

And Riva momentum is very real. She may not have Harvey Weinstein on her side and she may not be out there campaigning but the BAFTAs are not exactly harbingers of high taste. That is a very mainstream award that loved the performance. That SAG (with a large amount of TV actors who often do favor the recognizable faces) and Golden Globes (let's not take them too seriously now) ignored her should not really reflect poorly on her strength. When she finally got her chance in a head to head with Lawrence, she won.

[best12bars]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 11:33am

I think you're right about editing and possibly screenplay. So Argo could win 2 or 3.

It's a toss of the coin between De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, although my money is on Jones. Still, a De Niro win is a very real possibility now.

And I think Jennifer Lawrence will take home Best Actress.

(And Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway are locks.)

By the way, here's a nifty CNN poll. Nothing scientific about it, still it's fun to fill out and see what "the masses" of CNN readers think is going to win. They aren't too far off the mark, if at all, actually.


CNN Oscar poll

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 11:58am

Yeah, I think ARGO will definitely win two awards, possibly three. Sometimes they like to keep Screenplay/Picture together, but as we've said throughout the thread, this is such a special year that there's a lot of possible scenarios. It's hard to imagine David O'Russell or Tony Kushner losing over Terrio (though honestly I thought the ARGO screenplay was sharp, still O'Russell and Kushner wrote screenplays for the ages in their respective movies).
There is absolutely no way Alan Arkin will win Supporting Actor, the nomination is the award for him. I think Christoph Waltz still has a very good chance, those Globe and BAFTA wins cannot be ignored and I'm still not counting out Philip Seymour Hoffman, I thought he gave the best performance in that category, the problem is he gave a great co-lead performance and not supporting. Waltz was also a co-lead of his film. Tommy Lee Jones and Robert DeNiro are the ones that make the most sense in this particular category, Jones isn't the type to campaign or play nice but he gave two raved about performances this year (people forget he was outstanding--and loved by critics--in HOPE SPRINGS). DeNiro is giving a comeback performance, doing great work in a beloved film and he's doing a lot of campaigning. I say Tommy Lee Jones gets it, but virtually any name (save for Arkin's) could be called that night, it's very similar to the 2007 Supporting Actress race when Cate Blanchett won the Globe, Ruby Dee got the SAG and Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA and later got the Oscar. So exciting.

[best12bars]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 12:10pm

I will say that there are at least a few major categories that aren't locks, and that makes for a more exciting awards show.

[OrdinaryJukebox]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 4:17pm

I agree, best12bars. It's going to make for an interesting telecast as there are only a couple of "shoe-ins" (Hathaway and Day-Lewis, though I'll keep my fingers crossed for a Best Actor upset ala Adrian Brody).

[tazber]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 4:48pm

I also agree that the lack of "locks" is great.

Although I'm going to predict Argo for picture I'm not that confident about it.

I've noticed that the best actress and supporting actor predictions have been changing all over the place.

Suddenly I'm reading DeNiro and Watts as having late in the game momentum.

Personally, my predictions are Riva and Lee Jones, but I'm not betting any money on them.

[OrdinaryJukebox]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 5:16pm

I was really underwhelmed by Lee Jones and by Watts.

My ideal would be:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Heneke
Supporting Actor: DeNiro
Supporting Actress: Hathaway (although, I really loved Helen Hunt).
Actor: Cooper or Phoenix
Actress: Three-way tie: Chastain, Lawrence, and Riva ... too much to ask for? :P

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/17/13 at 5:47pm

I have also heard the Watts stuff but I also think this has happened to already build this commentary around her as overdue for next year because she has the Princess Di biopic out for later in the year that has everybody thinking gold statuette. I am also hearing all sorts of things that Amour being the least seen of the BP nominees despite its surprising amount of nominations and due to Riva's age, health, and being a foreigner, she has not campaigned which does really effect the process. But the fact she did get nominated by the actors wing without the SAG or GG indicators shows her strength and that was just half the battle for her. I've also heard that with Chastain she is either going to get helped by the rise of Riva and the concerns that Lawrence is too young and unpolished or that she is a spoiler to Lawrence by splitting the vote with her that only helps Riva. Leaning toward a toss-up of Riva and Lawrence.

Regarding Best Picture, I think it is Argo's to lose (note the preferential ballot). But I wouldn't discount Harvey Weinstein and there has been talk that Silver Linings Playbook (who are also helped by the preferential ballot) is gaining steam but that could just mean 'surprises' in other categories.

It is unclear how much the Academy really likes Django Unchained. Even with the indicators, I am not sure Tarantino so much as wins for screenplay. His last film that had a similar vengeance plot also won a lot of the indicators until the WGAs came along and he lost to Mark Boal there and at the Oscars. This time with a vengeance plot in America's own backyard, no WGA nomination and competing against Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Mark Boal again, and Michael Haneke- who might get a consolation prize in the Screenplay category. I really do think the WGA and DGA non-nominations speak volumes, not to mention no SAG nod for Waltz. Plus, Weinstein has his focus on SLP and Sony/Columbia Pictures has been really awful with its Best Picture nominees in recent years (I mean, really, it let Zero Dark Thirty get clobbered before its wide release like I have not seen with any recent nominees ever and Sony's handling of it around the awards circuit, such as not sending out screeners to SAG that really hurt Chastain's chances, was equally terrible). Would Christolph Waltz really get 2 Oscars in so few years because the Academy see him for Quentin Tarantino what Dianne Wiest was for Woody Allen? I feel like Hoffman (I feel like his chances dissipated when both Harvey and Megan Ellison had bigger fish to fry with campaigning for SLP and Zero Dark Thirty) and Jones come off as more deserved two-time winners than Arkin and Waltz do. That said, DeNiro seems to have what Meryl Streep had last year with Harvey planting the seed of this legendary actor has not had an Oscar win in decades and winning a third time puts him in the pantheon above all of his peers.

I am not even getting into Director. Any of them aside from Zeitlin (because getting a win for a motion picture debut just seems a little too cruel of fate) has some theoretical shot but it really is Russell vs. Spielberg vs. Lee.

[tazber]

Posted: 2/18/13 at 10:28am

Argo beats Lincoln at writer's guild awards - makes a guild clean sweep.

This actually surprises me. I thought this was the one category that Lincoln was a sure bet in (besides actor).
Link

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/18/13 at 10:50am

I thought this awards season would be more spread out but industry really loves when scripts, films, and directors have Hollywood as a star. I thought Argo's staying power would not last this long despite this factor of 'Hollywood saves the world' being prevalent since the first trailer appeared this past summer but the coldness toward Lincoln and the ZD30 controversy really gave it a second act. Still, I thought Kushner's script would be getting more respect over newcomer Terrio. I think when Argo won the USC Scripter, an award that honors the original work as well as the adaptation, showed Lincoln in a vulnerable position when Tony Kushner AND Doris Kearns Goodwin got passed over.

Even though Boal has lost to Tarantino in head to head showings, I think he is in a good position for screenplay. I feel the Academy will either acknowledge Zero Dark Thirty with just one (and the tech categories are looking vulnerable for it to win) or none at all. I actually think Haneke is Boal's biggest competition for the category. Who knows how much AMPAS likes the images of American slavery through an exploitation pastiche lens. They passed over Inglourious Basterds so it would not shocking if they also passed over Django Unchained. It should be noted that all of the original screenplay front-runners (Boal, Tarantino, and Haneke) all run under Sony/Sony Classics/Columbia Pictures. Tarantino also has Weinstein but Harvey is running with Silver Linings Playbook to the bitter end.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 2/18/13 at 2:06pm

I thought Harvey Weinstein was going a little overboard with pull-quoting Dr. Oz and Chris Matthews but this is by far the most 'in it to win it' display by him regarding Silver Linings Playbook:
https://twitter.com/thomaseobrien/status/303419435631382528/photo/1/large