"Amy Adams is by all accounts a supporting role in American Hustle."
Such a tragedy that one of the biggest against type roles she has done and she could be up against Meryl Streep.
And I agree the Blue/Adele movie is an uphill battle yet could it really be as challenging as Amour and Tree of Life that got Academy support? It's at TIFF, I will do my best to get into a screening but my ticket-package limited me quite a bit. The director Kechiche is known to a few cinephiles (disclaimer: I've never seen any of his work) so the lack of being a name, and a polarizing one like Malick or Haneke, is probably the biggest challenge.
As Myself. It's a fun board when you figure out who to ignore.
He's not as well known as Haneke or Malick for sure, but The Secret of the Grain made a pretty big impression when it came out, no?
It did. Made Criterion Collection and everything. But is seems the more French film-inclined cinephiles know him more. Some people in Cannes saw Blue is the Warmest Color without any real exposure to his other movies which actually speaks well for the movie itself.
I also forgot to note IFC Films is distributing the movie and they're not exactly in with the Academy either.
In a perfect world, Eva Mendes will get a nomination for PINES, although I don't really see that happening.
"It's a fun board when you figure out who to ignore."
It's even more fun to out trolls!
But you all smell so bad, you leave a stench.
"Such a tragedy that one of the biggest against type roles she has done and she could be up against Meryl Streep."
What is her type, exactly? After THE MASTER, I have absolutely no idea. She's unbelievably versatile and I honestly think she's a character actress who plays ditzy ingenues very well.
"Such a tragedy that one of the biggest against type roles she has done and she could be up against Meryl Streep."
Why are we so sure Streep is even a lock? Yes she is Streep but she could very well get the same reviews Oprah is getting. Plus, I doubt the academy will give Streep her 4th Oscar so soon. It has happened before with other Actors but each case is different. We shall see.
I think this thread is hilarious since how many of these movies have even come out yet?
Good Point. Most of this is just speculation at this point. However, Fruitvale Station is out and I am fairly certain Michael Jordan will recieve his first Academy Award nomination. Just a Hunch.
Is it certain or is it a hunch?
"Why are we so sure Streep is even a lock?"
You started this thread saying, "Looks like Streep and Oprah may go head to head."
Are you high?
Nothing is really certain at this point in the season but I would honestly say He has a better chance at getting a nomination for Best actor than the film does for Best Picture.
'MAY' is the keyword.
They're going to argue it's an ensemble film ala Whale Rider to justify the supporting campaign.
As for Oprah and The Butler, don't count them out. Lee Daniels still has a lot of good will built up from Precious (even with The Paperboy) and Oprah is a name with a lot of connections. Remember the surprising Best Picture, Drama nomination for The Great Debaters at the Golden Globes? That was promoted as an Oprah Winfrey production. The woman knows how to campaign. She was one of Daniels biggest supporters for Precious and that's not the first film she campaigned for, either.
High Oscar Season hasn't even started yet. I still think it's too soon to call the nominations.
One early potential contender ... at least I thought it was ... is "42." Didn't that receive solid notices enough for "consideration" in several categories? I know this board isn't an ideal place for sports-themed movies, but still ...
"What is her type, exactly? After THE MASTER, I have absolutely no idea. She's unbelievably versatile and I honestly think she's a character actress who plays ditzy ingenues very well."
She's never played a character who had her sexuality that much at the forefront. Even in The Fighter she was the girl next door but aside from one scene not very explicit. I think she is versatile but to others she plays mousy, often non-sexual characters.
Oh, Jordan now I completely understand why you would've been okay with me making another thread on this.
Best, I think with 42 that Harrison Ford might be in play for playing Branch Rickey.
I'm going to be skeptical of The Butler until I see it. That is somewhat to do with Lee Daniels having such heavy material and making crazy casting choices and mostly a lot to do with Danny Strong's screenplay actually working. Game Change was helped by performances, not its script.
Updated On: 8/13/13 at 09:19 AM
There have been a few other films that opened earlier this year that will probably get a push also:
Frances Ha (lead actress - Gerwig)
Before Midnight (lead actress - Delpy)
Mud (lead actor - Mcconaughey; best original screenplay)
I'll also mention Fruitvale Station even though it's still platforming at this stage in the game.
I heard McConaughey for supporting but who knows. I feel like he is a lock for a nomination of some kind as carry-over from last year.
Also keep an eye on Short Term 12. It screened at the Academy and got a lot of good notices. It may just be in the Spirit Awards category but I could see its lead Brie Larson and its script getting very far in the awards.
I also really hope Frances Ha, if not Gerwig (even though her getting an acting nod **should** happen) gets in at original screenplay the way Baumbach got a screenplay nod for Squid and the Whale.
Delpy and Before Midnight has Sonic Pictures Classics but the problem is that is also the same distributor as Blue Jasmine. The last 'Before...' did get a screenplay nod and Delpy came really close at the major critics awards. I feel like she needs to win one of those but the Best Actress race is stacked.
Fruitvale Station could go either way. I could see it somehow being front-runners in major categories because it is an important 'issue movie' but I can also see it fade from memory with Michael B. Jordan (frankly the Best Actor category is due for a 'young blood' nomination that only seems to happen in the Best Actress category) being the only nomination. The Wire fan in me wants both Wallace and Stringer Bell competing for the Best Actor category.
BEFORE MIDNIGHT will get a Screenplay push, too, since BEFORE SUNSET was nominated back in 2004.
ETA: As strummer just said before me.
I'm also hoping Gosling gets nominated for PINES (which still is my favorite film this year).
You know, I was going to mention Pines. I loved it and thought it had a lot of elements deserving of recognition.
But it never seemed to catch on and only got mixed reviews.
I hope both Linklater and Delpy can get nominated for Before Midnight, and Blue Jasmine could rack up several nominations too.
As much as I enjoyed Frances Ha, I fear that it won't be able to make the cut when all the heavy hitters start coming out this fall.
I would be very happy with Mud getting screenplay and McConaughey. Sam Shepard gave one of my favorite supporting performances so far this year in Mud as well.
I'm excited to see The Butler this weekend, but the trailer looks silly and over the top; it doesn't carry the prestige vibe that I thought it would.
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