As for MUD, I just didn't get it. I was so excited to see it after hearing all these amazing things but man, I was bored out of my mind. I just can't understand how anything about that movie was thought to be as fantastic as it was.
I'm excited to see The Butler this weekend, but the trailer looks silly and over the top; it doesn't carry the prestige vibe that I thought it would.
It seems like, from the trailer, it's too much of a by-the-number, "What do we need to do to be nominated?" movie. Too formulaic. Movies that are too formulaic have not won recently. Yes, they've been nominated most instances, but recently, have not actually won Best Picture.
It's not a good time to mention Pines was a major disappointment for me (I know, I know, it was shot in my hometown and everything and I ended up not liking it at all from structure to the script to the believability of the whole third segment) although I'd throw cinematography and editing awards at it in a second.
Mud was fine but I like Jeff Nichols' other movies but those are necessarily ones that are as accessible to the academy. It was a major sleeper hit so I can understand the goodwill it earned.
I feel like even if The Butler gets good notices, it's August. There is Toronto and Telluride happening in a matter of weeks. Only a select group of people have had access to screenings of the major prestige movies and almost always is the buzz from those screenings positive.
Amy Adams is a question mark right now, but in the comments section in this article Kris Tapley (who runs InContention) says he's been told she's lead. She certainly looks like she'll be the female lead of the film in the trailer, and I imagine that she's ready to get a Lead Actress nomination. We'll see.
From the films released earlier this year I honestly can't see much besides BEFORE MIDNIGHT getting a mention in top categories. The only way something like 42 would get remembered is if the big Fall players crash and burn. THE PLACE BEYOND THE PINES was extremely polarizing. MUD might get a Screenplay nomination, but mainly, I think it'll boost McConaghey's chances of getting in for DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB.
I think Streep is clearly a co-lead unless the film makes Barbara the focal point. That's a valid interpretation of the script too, so I wouldn't be annoyed if that was the case. Hope Margo Martindale doesn't get screwed by this decision.
InContention
I think "I'm So Excited" should get a foreign-picture nomination.
Strummer, I'm with you on feeling that PINES was a big disappointment. I was with it for the Gosling segment, but part two, and especially part three went south for me.
You can't discount the magic charm Woody Allen roles have for his actors. Blanchett is so thrilling in Blue Jasmine that I can't imagine her not being some sort of contender.
At this (very early) stage, Blanchett is definitely the one to beat for Lead Actress. She has three things going for her: 1) She got "best of" reviews, 2) She's an actress in a Woody Allen movie, 3) The film is a sleeper hit, and might do better than MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, which is Allen's biggest financial hit. Unless Amy Adams or Judi Dench turn out to be undeniable in their respective works, this is Blanchett's year.
Whizzer, I frankly saw problems earlier in the first segment with the Mendes-Gosling dynamic. I wish Mendes was given more to do (there are times where she is so central to an argument and she is not even shown in frame or is turned directly away from the camera) and I feel like Bradley Cooper got betrayed by the script and its structure- although him and Ben Mendelsohn were the best acting for me.
Foreign-Language nominations have to be one per country on choice and some of the rules that go into that are STUPID. But I would put money on Asghar Farhadi's The Past being a front-runner for the category. Although he is Iranian the movie is in French and will probably be the French pick (especially with no Blue is the Warmest Color to contend with). Since his A Separation nearly killed me, I plan on seeing this and once again falling apart.
McConaughey's role, along with Jared Leto's, in Dallas Buyer's Club sounds so bait-y. I always figured he might be in for The Wolf of Wall Street but apparently Jonah Hill seems locked down on getting that movie's supporting nod.
I'm still not sure how Jonah Hill is a legitimate contender for awards, his nomination for playing "Jonah Hill in a serious movie" baffles me.
Strummergirl, I believe I have read that France has never submitted a film for the Foreign Language competition by a non-French director, so chances are THE PAST won't be it. Berenice Bejo is coming off of a win at Cannes (and I love that she proved all the people who underestimated her gorgeous work in THE ARTIST wrong), so either she or the screenplay might gain some traction.
McConaghey won a bunch of awards for MAGIC MIKE, and he got stellar reviews for MUD, he's arguably never been more credible before. I think he has the right momentum to win for DALLAR BUYER'S CLUB, all he needs is for the performance to actually work (the movie doesn't need to be good, after all, Sandra Bullock and Jeff Bridges have Oscars for atrocious films).
"Her" has been pushed back to 12/18 for awards campaign.
Link
Jonah Hill was great in MONEYBALL, ray, and earned that nomination as far as I'm concerned.
So either the screenplay has whittled Violet down to a supporting character or this is category fraud which I would have thought Streep would have more honor to stoop to.
Either way it's pretty f^ck^ing sad.
I'm not sure this was necessarily Streep's decision to make. Remember the film is being distributed by Harvey Weinstein, so most likely he is the one moving the chips around (Oscar strategy is his forte), not Streep or her people.
Anyway, reps from AMERICAN HUSTLE confirmed the campaign as follows:
Lead Actor: Christian Bale, Lead Actress: Amy Adams, Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Supporting Actors: Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Renner. We'll see which of them ends up with buzz.
Jennifer Lawrence Joins Supporting Actress Race
I am going to TIFF and I am leaning toward skipping the matinee of A:OC. It'll be at my local theaters at Christmas, the others I want to see will probably not and only with a bit of luck will they be available in the nearest big city. The gala ticket in the night showing is reportedly sold out which probably means the matinee is the hot ticket, #1 priority for several.
Telluride is currently happening. Payne's Nebraska had a good showing there last check and JC Chandor's All is Lost (out of competition at Cannes but actually one of the best reviewed American features there, more than Fruitvale Station certainly) also seems to be holding court with people who have Robert Redford as a Best Actor front-runner. Supposedly this is an one-act showing for Redford, who only has one Oscar nomination in acting, and he got a lifetime achievement award at Telluride. He's respected by both the industry and festival circuit for Sundance. To me this is actually the most no-brainer of the nominees, although the film itself caught people expecting more a more action-y movie off-guard.
And as far as potential category fraud. People are wondering about Bruce Dern for Nebraska in lead or supporting. He won actor at Cannes (to a very Hollywood/Oscar-inclined jury that featured Spielberg, Kidman, Ang Lee, and Christoph Waltz) but some say it is a supporting part. Ohers believe that mindset is based on strategy due to the Leading Actor category appearing very crowded and that Dern was always more of a supporting player in his career but it is a lead.
And I know this may shock ray but Sandra Bullock for Gravity may happen. Maybe just a nomination but the Venice reviews of that movie and performance is stellar. I am very excited for this, probably my #1 priority for TIFF (even though I am contradicting myself with the rules I set with A:OC). Perhaps this, Jonathan Glazer's Under the Skin (which from the word of mouth at Telluride sounds so cult movie which makes me happy that ScarJo is in those kinds of movies again), and Spike Jonze's Her may redeem the sorry sci-fi that came out this past year.
Strummergirl, I agree Sandra Bullock looks fantastic in GRAVITY, I'm impressed she decided to work with Cuaron. I also think she'll get in, and if the preview is any indication, she'll deserve that nod. I just think THE BLIND SIDE is one of the worst movies to ever win an Oscar and I've seen performances of the same caliber in Lifetime movies.
According to Deadline and InContention, Bruce Dern is lead even though there were rumors about him going supporting. I'll be watching NEBRASKA at the NYFF and I'm pretty excited about it. Would have loved it if AUGUST: OC had played there.
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/16/07
"Category fraud" is the funniest effing thing I've seen all day.
People take 'category fraud' so seriously but while critic groups might pause, I think members of the Academy care more about who they like on their ballot. But I think there might have been something happening with Kate Winslet's year. It seems everybody who worked in the industry during that Oscar season has a story about that and the Weinstein Company.
Good luck at NYFF, ray. I've heard some screenings are already sold out. I am still awaiting for the official word tomorrow on what screenings at TIFF are sold out and then I can finally make my choice on Monday and then I travel Wednesday night.
Can't forget about "Wolf of Wall Street" for McConaghey and the rest of the cast. It's Scorsese with DiCaprio which the Academy seems to love. I wouldn't be surprised if this one catches on too/
"It's Scorsese with DiCaprio which the Academy seems to love."
They liked one movie they did, which actually ended up with the least amount of nominations than the others. But who knows, DiCaprio maybe has 'overdue' sentiment but I don't really lose sleep over him being Oscar-less.
I've actually heard this movie may be more in line with the Goodfellas/Casino and supposedly the MPAA almost came down pretty hard on it. Jonah Hill said something to the effect this movie is raunchy and salacious as if not more than the Apatow movies he has done. You can bring up The Departed being a not easy to swallow pill for the Academy but that had a lot of 'Scorsese's overdue' sentiment.
For DiCaprio, I just want to see him have fun as an actor again than some cipher or damaged person that was largely the role Scorsese put him in. This seems somewhat more fun but it also seems whacked out. But I just want a good movie from them than an Oscar movie.
Back to Telluride:
12 Years a Slave had its premiere there and the reviews were astounding but the movie's very frank, straight-forward depiction of the brutality under slavery has people wondering if audiences can handle it. I hate that a movie about a subject there are so few movies on has to have that question raised in even reviews of praise but anybody who was expecting Steve McQueen, director of Hunger, to soften up the story of Solomon Northup was kidding themselves. Also great praise for John Ridley's script and the performances of Chiwitel Ejiofor as Northup and Michael Fassbender as the brutal overseer. Brad Pitt's role is basically all in the trailer but he has producer credit. Good for him funding this movie.
So I get my schedule ready for TIFF. Of the potential players in the Oscar race I got Gravity, Rush, and Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom. But aside from Gravity, I am most interested in Jonathan Glazer's Under the Skin, starring Scarlett Johansson. It is a Nicolas Roeg-ish sci-fi movie that had reported walk-outs in Telluride and it was booed in Venice but the people who love it really LOVE it. Glazer directed Birth (one of the most beautifully constructed movies that I have ever seen) but went on a 10-year break before this movie.
Keep an eye out for Prisoners that should be in some theaters 2 weeks from Friday. It stars Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Melissa Leo, Viola Davis, and Paul Dano but to me the most significant part of that movie is that it is directed by Denis Villeneuve who directed Incendies, one of my favorite melodramas/shockers in years, making his English-language debut. Supposedly it has a huge twist but praise be to Warner Bros. making such a tough movie. And Roger Deakins does the cinematography.
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