The True Hillary- Page 3
The True Hillary
mc1227
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/07
#50re: The True Hillary
Posted: 3/2/08 at 5:23pmOrangeskittles, you missed the point I was getting at. It had nothing to do with black or white, it has to do with male/female. The reality of inequality (no, I'm not a hardcore feminist) is that the majority of white males in this country would rather vote for a less than qualified black male than a more than qualified female. Talk about prejudice!!
#51re: The True Hillary
Posted: 3/2/08 at 5:36pmmc... Obama has been an elected official for a longer period of time than Clinton. The qualifications of each candidate can only truly be assessed by each individual voter. Perhaps these white males are voting for Obama because they believe his experience as an elected official and community organizer trumps the experienced gained as a first lady? You are making rash generalizations about the voting populace which don't seem to be warranted imo...
#52the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 6:56pmor perhaps they are republicans who crossed over just to vote against hillary and will come back home to johnny mac in the general leaving democrats sputtering, "wha' happen?"
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#53the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 7:01pm
Ohio will go to Hillary, by a margin only Tuesday will tell, and Texas will be decided by the turnout of Latino voters.
But I predict there will still be no clear delegate lead after Tuesday.
#54the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 7:06pmhe'll still be ahead by a hundred or so but she'll be able to say that she won both and play to latino voters that she was robbed in texas by a system that disproportionately awards delegates to african-american districts (since they showed the highest turnout for the dems in '04). she's still got a 8 point or so lead in pa. and pj, you're ignoring the two true powerhouses of all powerhouses: rhode freakin' island and vermont, baby!
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#55the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 7:24pmHere is the thing that scares me here where I live. I am hearing from people that if Hillary gets the nomination, they are going to vote for McCaine. This is coming from Democrats. They aren't even going to support the party. And I live in a red state.
#56the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 7:51pm
Eh. And there are Conservatives who don't like McCain who say they'll vote for Hillary or Obama rather than McCain.
And there are Obama supporters saying they won't vote at all if Hillary gets the nomination.
You have to make the decision yourself.
mc1227
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/07
#57the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 7:55pm
Hilary's years as first lady is by no means her only qualifications for the job. As it was, Hillary was no ordinary first lady. She had her sleeves rolled up from day one ready to tackle the health insurance issue and because she was a woman who threatened Washington, the opposition sharpened their knives and provided smoke screen after smoke screen to deter her from a goal they did not want her to achieve. The reason? Because the health care lobbyists had financed their campaigns and more.
Her time spent as an attorney and child advocate must not be overlooked either. She was much more than a community organizer. She tackled existing laws and fought to change them to protect children's rights. She's not afraid to take on anyone. But of course, that's my take and I understand that we all see things from different perspectives. But no one can convince me otherwise that the male/female issue is a more definitive one than anything else in this campaign.
#58the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 8:28pm
Orangeskittles, you missed the point I was getting at. It had nothing to do with black or white, it has to do with male/female.
I didn't miss your point, I thought your point was stupid. Both Obama and Hillary are prejudiced political minorities; it makes no sense to cry "sexist" when the other side can just as easily cry "racist". In fact, there are more white women in the Senate than African-Americans (male OR female), so your claims about inequality in the voting populace have already been proven inaccurate. Think of a better argument, because you're making all feminists look bad.
Wanting life but never knowing how
#59the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 8:50pm
I didn't miss your point, I thought your point was stupid.
Little girl, I'm sure you'll grow up to be a very nice person. Someday.
#61the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 9:50pm
If she gets the nomination, I'm breaking open the Champagne.
You can have the empties to use as sex toys, Liverpool. They don't vibrate, but they might still have a little fizz.
mc1227
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/07
#62the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 10:19pmSkittles, look at the polling numbers, not the representation in Congress. Polls clearly show that white males are going for Obama and white females (especially over 50) are going Hillary. My original point was that regardless of color, men would rather vote for their own gender than a woman even when that women's credentials are greater than the male opponent.
#63the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/2/08 at 11:17pm
Hm, for one thing it's debatable that Hillary's credentials are "greater" (whatever that is supposed to mean) than Obama's, so your bias is clear from the beginning.
Anyway, I don't think Hillary Clinton is a good place to set the bar on white men's willingness to vote for a woman. For one thing Obama is sweeping the under 30 set so you've pretty much knocked out a progressive demographic right there. Like it or not Hillary has a certain notoriety for some people--and hey. Maybe some of us are just turned off by her personality? A white guy might be perfectly willing to vote for a different woman.
Really, if there's any conclusion to be drawn from the polls it's that WOMEN are more likely to vote their own gender... especially when the gender card is pulled. Just like African Americans swarmed to Obama after Bill made some funny comments.
joey
#64the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 8:02am
Speaking of polls...
The latest Reuters poll shows Obama pulling ahead in Ohio. He now leads there 47 to 45. He maintains his lead in Texas, 47 to 44.
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Gothampc
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/20/03
#65the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 9:33amWow, this thread has really gone off the rails.
#66the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 12:04pm
The latest Survey USA poll has Hillary ahead by 10%--4 points higher than the last poll.
===
Clinton Ohio Defense Appears To Hold at Goal Line; Turns Back Obama Charge:
36 hours till votes are counted in the Ohio Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to stop the momentum of Barack Obama by converting voters focused on health care, voters in Greater Cincinnati, and voters in greater Dayton to her cause.
At the wire, it's Clinton 54%, Obama 44%, in SurveyUSA research conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland.
Three weeks ago, Clinton led by 17.
Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 9.
One week ago, Clinton led by 6.
Today: Clinton stops sliding.
Obama has not polled more than 44% in any SurveyUSA tracking poll. Clinton has not polled less than 50% in any SurveyUSA tracking poll.
Other telephone polls show the contest closer. One poll conducted by U.S. Mail shows the contest more lopsided.
In SurveyUSA's data: the 16 minutes that Clinton spent arguing with Obama about health care at this week's NBC News debate appears to have paid off. Slightly more voters now name health care as the most important issue, and among those who do, Clinton today leads by 24 points, up from a 7-point lead last week.
In greater Cincinnati, Clinton had trailed in two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, but today leads by 19 points. In greater Dayton, the swing is smaller, but also to Clinton.
In Southeast Ohio, Clinton has always led, but now leads overwhelmingly.
If you combine these 3 regions and draw them on a map, they form a horseshoe, and trace the Ohio boundary that touches red-state Indiana on the West, red-state Kentucky on the South and red state West Virginia on the East.
At this hour, that horseshoe is functioning as Clinton's firewall.
Clinton Ohio Defense Appears To Hold at Goal Line; Turns Back Obama Charge
#67the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 1:14pmSurveyUSA, hahahaha!
#68the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 5:31pm
University of Cincinnati poll puts Hillary in front 51-42.
===
The "Ohio Poll," sponsored by the University of Cincinnati.
NATION’S BELLWETHER LIKELY TO SELECT CLINTON, MCCAIN
Cincinnati, OH--New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) and Arizona Senator John McCain (R) appear ready to win the popular vote in their respective primaries on Tuesday.
After allocation of undecided Democratic voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the Democratic presidential primary race stands at Clinton 51.3 percent and Obama 42.3 percent.
After allocation of undecided Republican voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, McCain receives 53.4 percent of the Republican primary vote and Huckabee receives 23.7 percent.
These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. Six hundred twenty four (624) probable Democratic primary voters and three hundred thirty (330) probable Republican primary voters were interviewed between February 28 and March 2, 2008. The potential sampling error for the Democratic primary race is + 3.9%. The potential sampling error for the Republican primary race is + 5.4%.
NATION’S BELLWETHER LIKELY TO SELECT CLINTON, MCCAIN (PDF)
#69the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 5:38pm
Public Policy Polling also puts Hillary up 51-42.
===
Obama has not seen the same level of support from young people in Ohio that he has benefited from in other states. He leads Clinton only 49-46 among voters aged 18-29 and trails 48-44 with respondents 30-45.
Although he has the same high level of support from African Americans that he has tended to enjoy (75-18 ), his gap among white voters is considerable. Clinton has a 59-34 advantage with that group. [...]
A particular problem for Obama is limited support among male voters, who he has dominated in states where he has done well. In Ohio he leads that group just 47-46.
Clinton expands lead in Ohio (PDF)
#70the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 5:42pm
Rasmussen puts Ohio at Clinton 50% Obama 44%.
Ohio: Clinton 50% Obama 44%
#71the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 5:51pm
"My original point was that regardless of color, men would rather vote for their own gender than a woman even when that women's credentials are greater than the male opponent. "
Thanks for speaking for all the men, mc!
#72the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 6:06pm
If Clinton takes Ohio by 8-10%, she will have ended Obama's "unbeatable" tide. He has to beat her in BOTH Texas and Ohio to win.
This will be Obama's 3rd chance to knock her out: His first chance was Iowa, but New Hampshire reversed that. His second chance was Super Tuesday but she won California and New Jersey by 10 and Massachusetts by 15.
This is his last chance. If he fails to win both Texas and Ohio, the nomination is decided by Pennsylvania and the Super Delegates--and Florida and Michigan, depending on what the ruling is on their delegates.
Governor Charlie Crist of Florida offered to pay for a new primary. Now THAT would be exciting.
#73the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 6:44pm
I doubt she'll take Ohio by 8-10% Those polls you quote are the extremes. If you look at CNN's Poll of Polls, which takes the six most reputable polls (including both my Reuters and your Univ of Cinn but none of your others) and averages them, she really only has a 5% lead, at 48% to 43%. The significance though, is that Obama is showing a lead in Ohio in a reputable poll for the first time.
As far as her continuing on, She keeps changing the bar as to when and if she should concede. Last week she needed to win both Texas and Ohio. Then, once it looked like Obama might win Texas, the bar dropped to at least Ohio by a big margin. Now that it looks like it might be close in Ohio, you're switching the burden away from her to Obama, saying now HE has to win all four or it means he can't close the deal. Well why can't she close the deal? You ask why he hasn't knocked her out with three tries? She's had the same chances. Why hasn't she knocked him out?
Mathematically, even if she does really well in Ohio, she would still need to take ALL of the remaining 14 (or is it 16?) states with a 70% majority! It's just never going to happen. And a win by super delegates going against the people's will, or by changing the rules mid-game with FLA and MI would be a disaster for the Democratic party.
I don't know if I'll make it through the day tomorrow. This year is really too exciting.
#74the sneakiest of all
Posted: 3/3/08 at 8:31pm
And a win by super delegates going against the people's will, or by changing the rules mid-game with FLA and MI would be a disaster for the Democratic party.
Stop being such a disaster queen.
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