Jackie Earle Haley should have won, hands down. Murphy was serviceable in DREAMGIRLS but I probably wouldn't have even nominated him, let alone voted for him. And I've never really believed the line that Murphy's loss was "punishment" for making NORBIT. I understand he was likely the frontrunner (having won the GG and SAG), but upsets happen, especially when they're deserved. Arkin was better than Murphy, and Haley was better still than both of them. If the Oscars "punished" people for making crap movies, ALL ABOUT STEVE would have sunk Sandra Bullock's chances and Meryl Streep would have the third Oscar she so richly deserved.
I'd say if any outside factor caused him to lose the award, it was probably the condescending attitude he espoused during awards season. Remember his GG speech: "Thank you David Geffen for convincing me to work for free."
What bothers a lot of people, I think, was that Murphy left before Hudson won Best Supporting Actress. It sucks to lose, sure, but you couldn't at least hang around to see your 25-year-old co-star win her first Oscar?
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe."
-John Guare, Landscape of the Body