2007 Leading Actress in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders — Page 2

I also agree that D'Amboise will be considered supporting, and that Goodwin will get her spot, if anyone from ACL gets nominated. I dont predict alot of acting nominations for Les Miz or ACL...just a gut prediction.

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I agree with you, MB, but I do think, if any performance of the past 10 years can hold onto that Tony, it's this one.

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If it were up to me, LES MISERABLES should not be eligible for the Best Revival award - it should only be eligible for the performances.

To deem it eligible for a Best Revival Tony would also lead one to believe that the director and designers would be eligible. I find it too far fetched to think that the Tony's will deem it a Revival, but disqualifiying the director and the designers. Just strange.

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It's amazing how cluttered the year already is. By the time the nominations come out, though, I am guessing quite a bit will have already shuttered or be on the verge of and the nominations will sadly be fairly obvious again.
Right now, though, on paper, it's extremely tight. I'm already pulling for a few people (I'm excited about Celia's possibly getting a second straight nom) and looking forward to seeing some NEW theatre in addition to revisiting some shows I missed their first time around.

The roller coaster of Broadway.

I have a feeling that with so many performers and shows available to receive award recognition, and given the fact that with THE APPLE TREE now we have 5 revivals, LES MISERABLES might easily get the complete shaft and not get nominated for anything.

There are only 4 slots for the Best Revival of a Musical category, and it's easily filled out with COMPANY, A CHORUS LINE, 110 IN THE SHADE and THE APPLE TREE. Aside from that category, the only thingLES MIS will have going for it is Celia. And with so many talented performers in other fresh works, this would be the perfect opportunity for the nominating committee to say to Cameron Macintosh, "You can't run for 16 years, close, come back 3 years later and expect to receive award nominations for what is essentially a replacement cast of the same production". Because if they start awarding this scheme, it's only going to give permission for other shows to close, come back 3 years later and expect to win awards. No?

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Everyone talks about Ebersole being the strong frontrunner, but the honest truth is Grey Gardens will be lucky to still be running come next spring. No matter how much the critics might love it, its a tough sell. If Grey Gardens closes in January or February, which I personally think is a strong possibility, is it realistic to think that the Tonys will award Ebersole with a second leading actress award?

Of course, Chenoweth and McDonald (the other two "sure thing" nominations) are also in limited runs. When does 110 close? It's way too early to predict, but I won't be at all surprised if Audra pickes up Tony number 5. Then again, if Monk's role is significant in size, voters would love to honor her AND Kander and Ebb. I think that Curtains will surprise people with the momentum it's going to build.

Well APPLE TREE isn't staying open till the Tony Awards - its already announced that it is a limited engagement. But it would be very easy for the show to still garn multiple performer nominations. Ditto 110 IN THE SHADE. And GREY GARDENS has a huge shot at two supporting actress nominations.

Thats the thing that makes it all so interesting. Not only do we have a huge number of projects opening, but there are going to be multiple people competing with costars from their own shows.

Crazy!

grey gardens will run through the tonys. I don't doubt that for a moment.

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What's Barbara Walsh in?

I agree. I said "no matter how much", in case they become enthusiastic when it transfers or feels a need to champion an underdog. The show is appreciated by critics, but not really liked. Mixed reviews, odd subject matter, and no bankable stars = early demise. This ain't a Disney show...

And yes, Apple Tree will also be closed by Tony time. I'm sure Chenoweth will also get a nomination, and that will be the end of the road to Tony #2 in 2007.

Let's face it: the majority of people that will rush out to see GREY GARDENS are people that are avid theatregoers and look for new and fresh material. Us theatregoers that are "in the know" will go to see Ebersole's performance due to all the hype surrounding her after GREY GARDENS opened off-Broadway.

A family or a couple traveling to NYC from anytown USA for a week to catch a show aren't goint to select GREY GARDENS, unless, of course - they know the documentary and are familiar with Ebersole's raves.

I want the show to succeed, I want it to run, and I want people to love it - but in all probability, I think it's going to suffer a fate similar to CAROLINE, OR CHANGE or GEM OF THE OCEAN - two pieces with stellar casts and by acclaimed playwrights that received very positive reviews - CAROLINE at the Public and GEM on Bway. Still, they closed a huge failure. The subject matter was alienating, and the forms intimidating to some people. I just can't see GREY GARDENS becoming a sensation and recouping it's investment. I'm rooting for it, but almost all of the odds are against it.



And on another note, what do you mean Celia is the only thing LES MIS has going for it? You've not even seen her in the role yet. Personally, I think one of the only things this LES MIS "revival" has going for it is the cast - a group of Broadway favorites playing some of our favorite characters. Personally, I'm more excited to see Daphne-Rubin Vega's take on Fantine and Alexander Gemignani's take on Valjean than anyone else.

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while everthing you said, munk, may or may not come to fruition, it doesn't dictate whether or not the show will run through the tonys. it will.

and as for lowering keys--what matters is how the songs sit in her voice. higher does not equal better. great singing equals better.

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