2007 Leading Actress in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders — Page 3

I love Daphne-Rubin Vega. I think she's a brilliant actress. After RENT, I thought she would just sort of fade away and pop up every now and then in roles she was type-cast into.

I am happy to see that I am wrong, as she is proving to be one of our finest actresses. She was fun (though still type-cast in ROCKY,) but totally brilliant in ANNA IN THE TROPICS. The woman can act - she's fierce.

I do agree, though, that she might not be able to pull off Fantine's songs. I'm pulling for her, but I will be waiting with baited breath...

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JRB - why are you so sure that GG will run through the Tonys?

I hope it does, but the skepticism does have some validity. The show as it played Off Broadway didn't get great reviews, and its admittedly a tough sell, particularly to tourists who don't know or care who Chrstine Ebersole is, and probably won't facilitate extraordinary word of mouth. It really is a bizarre story about bizarre people: we have yet to see how it appeals beyond the largely gay, largely theatre elitist crowds who made the show a sell out at Playwright's Horizons.


If the show were to say open at 50-60 percent capacity, and lose money every week, I'm pretty sure it won't stick around seven months.

Why are people so doubting Vega's ability to pull over Fantine's material? You are acting like she didn't have to go into a room and audition with those songs to get the role...

Updated On: 9/14/06 at 01:55 PM

I understand that the advance is going well though I don't have numbers.

once gg starts previews, the tonys are in 8 months. the noms are in 7. i've been told that there is likely 9 months of theatre folk who will see this just based on the off bway reviews and awards. but you came to the conclusion of 7, so playing conservatively, i'd bet the show gets to at least the noms and the noms boost sales through the tonys.

I know that the producers believe in this show. they are likely to push through rough times (if there are any). and these are producers whose resumes include 'difficult'/art shows. I think they know the game.

and the show could garner better reviews after the revisions and there ARE revisions being made.

and besides--you know rosie is gonna promote it on the view.

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I agree with everything you said, but I still think it will be an incredibly tough sell. I have my fingers crossed for them, but one can't help but be skeptical.

Jerby, how on earth could you "have been told" that there are enough theatre folk to see this to make it run atleast 9 months? That's something that nobody can actually know in advance.

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I'd have to say that Randy Graff's voice wasnt suited to Fantine either, imo. Loved her in everything else she's done, however. She needed to turn the brass down a bit as Patti did. I also hated Jacqueline Piro (when the cast was overhauled)...again, too brassy...she's dying for Chrisssake!

If Daphne can act it (I'm sure she can), no problems for her. I just think this revival feels like a stunt and wont get much love come awards season. Too soon.

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Audra performed a number from MArie Christine on Rosie's show that just left me thinking, "well, there's one show I wouldn't mind missing."
and I say that with deep regret. It's unfortunate but true that we make those decisions based on that one viewing. I'd prefer they have Ebersole sing something in that fabulous voice of hers (before she goes all character as in "Revolutionary Costume) and let people hear that voice.

I believe the creative team truly love the material and thought the sell out engagement at Playwrights might have indicated there was an audience for it outside of a not-for-profit arena. But yes, the whole reason the show is transferring is because of that Ben Brantley quote about Ebersole giving one of the finest performances ever in a musical.

Is it foolish to spend millions of dollars on a Broadway transfer based solely on one performance? We'll see.

But have they turned a profit and run until the Tony Awards?

I think GG will be very similar, box office wise, to this year's SWEENEY.

it was something someone smart said to me based on their experiences. there is no fact or guarantee involved in that number--same as mb's guess at 7 months. as if any of us know for certain what will happen. I just have more educated guesses on my end as you can imagine.

and while it's delightful to sit around and speculate, I really wouldn't presume to know the producer's exact motivations. the musical was included in the best plays series--and that was pre rewrites. there's another possible reason. perhaps this show SHOULD have a chanc at bway.

if they had started in boston or the west coast, would things be greatly different?

I hear way too much 'why would anyone be so stupid to produce something risky on bway' from some of you. they are smart people who completely understand what's up. don't pretend to know more than they do. don't pretend that you can put yourselves in their shoes. that's something i'm really starting to learn from bww discussions. the difference between truth and what many of us surmise can be quite vast.

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Anyone know how much it cost to capitalize this production? I'm just wondering if it'll be fine posting Sweeney numbers.

But GG is going to be a more expensive show to produce, Bway. It has a larger cast, musicians in the pit, costumes etc. It might make SWEENEY's average weekly gross, but it surely won't have SWEENEY's same low break even costs...

Correction: I think GG and SWEENEY had the same cast size, but GG will still be more expensive to run week to week.

Updated On: 9/14/06 at 03:15 PM

I also believe that Grey Gardens is going to have a tough time of it at the box office. Given the mixed reviews and the odd subject matter, it strikes me as a particularly hard sell to anyone but hardcore theatre fans. I just don't know how the show can be marketed to a mainstream audience and wonder if there are really tens of thousands of people out there -- which is what every show needs to survive -- who are willing to spend $110 to see it.

It sorta reminds me of the situation with SOUVENIR last season, which was another show that had a soldout run off-Broadway, extended multiple times and featured a critically acclaimed performance by a veteran award-winning actress (but not a star who is a big box office name) at its center playing a very eccentric real woman from the past. As is the case with GG, the play itself got very mixed notices, but the producers decided to move it to Broadway anyway on the strength of the raves the lead actress received. Well, as we know SOUVENIR struggled at the box office and never was able to find an audience, closing after just a couple of months. I predict that GG, which costs about 5 times as much to run as SOUVENIR -- with its cast of two, single set and no additional musicians -- is going face a similarly difficult time attracting an audience (especially during the dead months of January and February), but I wish it well.

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Updated On: 9/15/06 at 03:17 PM

God forbid it suffer the fate of Caroline, which deserved far better, too.