2009 Tony Award Best Musical Predictions

[jagfkb]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 11:31am

Ok, I've waited. Now that four of the seven have opened, time to start the predictions:

My guess? Unless Shrek, 9 to 5, AND Vanities all are bombs and close, Tale will not be nominated, though it could pick up acting nod for Barbour and Toro. 13, the same deal, or if they come up with a great new campaign it might get the nod. Vanities I can't see doing well, mainly due to not great out of town reviews and no true buzz. Consider it the "A Catered Affair" this year. [title of show]? If it comes back, I'd consider it as a potential nominee. 9 to 5 and Shrek may battle it out if reviews for both are not incredibly great. Billy Elliot? The lock. If Shrek and 9 to 5 DO do incredibly well, and, as expected, [title of show] does come back in the spring, the nominations will be as follows:
Billy Elliot
9 to 5
Shrek
[title of show]

However, if it doesn't, consider the last spot being taken by 13. The winner, as I've said before, will go to the show which does the best money wise. Though Billy Elliot does have the best reviews, if Shrek, 9 to 5, or 13 are doing better, well you get the picture.

[Trish2]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 11:39am

So early to make such predictions. BUT, if those ARE the four nominated i bet we'll see another PRODUCERS type sweep for Billy Elliott.

[ljay889]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 11:40am

Too early.

Tonight we will have a better idea if ROAD SHOW transfers. Which could easily replace TOS or Shrek.

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 11:43am

The Best Musical award is very biased. It usually goes to the show that will tour best (Thoroughly Modern Millie won BM ["Don't call her her 'BM,' Carl!"] over Urinetown because the voters knew Urinetown wasn't as easy a sell). But there are a lot of musicals that would tour very easily this year.

My predictions: Billy Elliot (given), 9 to 5, [title of show], Shrek. For sure, the first two. [tos] and Shrek are up in the air.

[Just_John]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 12:23pm

If [title of show] is nominated, do you think they will be able to perform?

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 12:31pm

If FELA! transfers, it will bump either SHREK, 9 TO 5, or even [TOS]. I do think [title of show] might get the nod, just because it's such a beloved show by the community. It'd be great to see them up there with the corporate monsters like SHREK and 9 TO 5 (and although I think it deserves the award already, BILLY ELLIOT probably goes there too).

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 12:38pm

If [title of show] is nominated, do you think they will be able to perform?

As if those four would ever miss an opportunity to perform together on the Tonys.

It would be great if they sang "Nine People's Favorite Thing," just to say, "Screw you! We don't care if we win!"

No matter how tourable the other shows are, I can't imagine anyone winning Best Musical over BILLY ELLIOT. It's such a juggernaut, both with critics and audiences. And it won just about every award that exists in London and Australia.

My predictions (as the season stands now):
Billy Elliot
[title of show]
9 to 5
Shrek or White Christmas, pending reviews (unless White Christmas will be considered a special event, but I think it qualifies as a new musical)

If all the rumored transfers happen:
Billy Elliot
[title of show]
Road Show (how can they not nominate a new Sondheim show?)
FELA!

[Theatreboy49]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:07pm

If TOS is nominated It might become one of the happiest days of my life just because I lvoe the show that much. If they perform though Id like to see Die Vampire Die over 9 peoples favorite thing because I think its more fun and the part about who do you think your kidding etc actually kind of also sends the whole screw you message because people said they couldnt do it and bam they did.

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:13pm

As much as I love "Die, Vampire, Die," I don't think it's the best song to sing on the Tonys. First of all, imagine all the bleeping. It just wouldn't be the same censored. Second, it doesn't sum up the fun, touching, inspiring nature of the show like "Nine People's Favorite Thing" or "A Way Back to Then" (which they might do if Heidi gets a nod).

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:14pm

I don't think [tos] will be nominated. Especially if FELA and ROAD SHOW transfer.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:21pm

Yero, you beat me to it. I was gonna say that they'd probably do something to the effect of the medley they did for Broadway on Broadway, performing "Untitled Opening Number" and "A Way Back to Then," especially if Heidi gets nominated. "Nine People's Favorite Thing" would be nice too. If the show gets nominated (and I hope it does), I hope they will be allowed to perform. I mean, if Side Show was allowed to perform a duet and if they had that trio of non-nominees perform last year, then let [tos] perform!

~Steven

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:26pm

It's not about whether the cast of [TOS] would miss the opportunity to perform or not, it's whether they are allowed to perform at all since they aren't running. Usually shows that aren't running at the time of the telecast don't get to perform at the ceremony.
However, I'm pretty sure they'll allow [TOS] to perform if they do get the nod, and they should do "Nine People's Favorite Things."
BILLY ELLIOT is the one to beat. I honestly don't see ROAD SHOW transferring this season, and if it does, I feel that a commercial run of the show would just be a mistake. It'd be great if someone like MTC produced the show.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:33pm

Obviously, BILLY ELLIOT is the current frontrunner.

From what I hear though, they are really whipping 9 TO 5 into shape. It's supposed to be getting better and better by the day.

Well, now that I think about it, I could kinda see [tos] getting nominated by default. This season (as far as new musicals go, without FELA and ROAD SHOW transferring) is very "blah".

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:35pm

I don't think [tos] has a chance of winning, especially up against BILLY ELLIOT and the other huge audience favorites this year. But I really think it will be nominated, because it's so beloved within the industry. The only way it won't be is if it's completely forgotten by then, but I don't see that happening, especially if the rumors of a "revival" in the spring are true.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:37pm

I don't think it will be completely forgotten. They'll make sure of it one way or another.

~Steven

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:38pm

I can't imagine 9 TO 5 beating BILLY ELLIOT, regardless of how much work goes into 9 TO 5. I have absolutely nothing against 9 TO 5, in fact I'm quite excited to see it, but I think simply from the fact that BILLY ELLIOT comes from a more adaptable, musical source and it has a more experienced creative team behind it, it's likely that it towers over 9 TO 5. What do I know though? Guess that's the exciting part of waiting for the shows to open.
A FELA! transfer could really change the game though.

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:39pm

I really hope you're right, MrMusic.

I just thought of something -- if they perform on the Tonys, they should do the full version of the Tony Award Song. You know, the one that Hunter starts singing in the show and then stops because it's pandering. That would be funny.

On the other hand, it would also be pretty sad if they sang that song and didn't win, so maybe not.

Updated On: 11/18/08 at 01:39 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:42pm

Haha. Well, with it being closed and the fact that Billy Elliot happened, it doesn't have any shot at winning. Maybe in other categories, but certainly not Best Musical. So it would be pretty sad. :)

~Steven

[Pianolin717]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:54pm

well... the part about shows not being able to perform if they arent running?

well... what about sideshow? i mean, i know that the two girls were nominated for best actress but the show still was not running... so, that rule might not apply?

[WithoutATrace]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 1:58pm

RAGS also had a performance on the 1987 Tony Awards, and it had opened and closed in September 1986. If [tos] is nominated, they should get to perform, unless some new rule states that closed shows cannot perform (which would be a stupid rule).

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 2:05pm

Especially with the fact that last year, the three new musicals that weren't nominated were allowed to perform, I don't see why [tos] wouldn't perform...


I just wonder if they'll allow the non-nominated musicals to perform again this year.

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 2:15pm

I saw to 9 TO 5 in L.A. and loved it SOOO much! To hear it is getting betteris great! PS: Did they cut Mundania yet?

I think, in order from top to bottom, it is:
BILLY ELLIOTT
9 TO 5
SHREK
WHITE CHRISTMAS or [title of show]

With transfers:
BILLY ELLIOTT
9 TO 5
FELA!
ROAD SHOW

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 2:22pm

I always thought that the reason closed shows didn't perform is simply that the sets were in storage, the actors had moved on, and it was just not practical or feasible to get everyone back together, relearn everything (if necessary), just for one performance that wouldn't do any good promotion-wise. It's not a rule that closed shows can't perform, they just usually don't. At least, that's what I thought.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 2:41pm

I'll go with the obvious here:

Billy Elliot
9 to 5
Shrek
[title of show]

And if Fela! And Road Show transfer...

Billy Elliot
Fela!
Road Show
Shrek

If one transfers and the other doesn't, then 9 to 5 will take its place. Sadly, I don't see [tos] getting a nomination if there's that much competition, only because it won't tour well and there are bigger shows that didn't close 8 months before the awards. I do think, however, the voters will give them Book and Score nominations as consolation prizes.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 11/18/08 at 2:51pm

9 TO 5 will certainly get a nod over SHREK if that's what it comes down to.

Even the most cynical of critics that I know who saw the show in San Fran said it's leagues and leagues better than SHREK is now and it's already in previews on Broadway.

Plus I think (unless it's well-crafted which I hear SHREK is far from) the Tonys are beginning to stray from money-hungry movie-to-musical adaptations a bit.