2009 Tony Award Best Musical Predictions

Ok, I've waited. Now that four of the seven have opened, time to start the predictions:

My guess? Unless Shrek, 9 to 5, AND Vanities all are bombs and close, Tale will not be nominated, though it could pick up acting nod for Barbour and Toro. 13, the same deal, or if they come up with a great new campaign it might get the nod. Vanities I can't see doing well, mainly due to not great out of town reviews and no true buzz. Consider it the "A Catered Affair" this year. [title of show]? If it comes back, I'd consider it as a potential nominee. 9 to 5 and Shrek may battle it out if reviews for both are not incredibly great. Billy Elliot? The lock. If Shrek and 9 to 5 DO do incredibly well, and, as expected, [title of show] does come back in the spring, the nominations will be as follows:
Billy Elliot
9 to 5
Shrek
[title of show]

However, if it doesn't, consider the last spot being taken by 13. The winner, as I've said before, will go to the show which does the best money wise. Though Billy Elliot does have the best reviews, if Shrek, 9 to 5, or 13 are doing better, well you get the picture.

Too early.

Tonight we will have a better idea if ROAD SHOW transfers. Which could easily replace TOS or Shrek.

If [title of show] is nominated, do you think they will be able to perform?

If [title of show] is nominated, do you think they will be able to perform?

As if those four would ever miss an opportunity to perform together on the Tonys.

It would be great if they sang "Nine People's Favorite Thing," just to say, "Screw you! We don't care if we win!"

No matter how tourable the other shows are, I can't imagine anyone winning Best Musical over BILLY ELLIOT. It's such a juggernaut, both with critics and audiences. And it won just about every award that exists in London and Australia.

My predictions (as the season stands now):
Billy Elliot
[title of show]
9 to 5
Shrek or White Christmas, pending reviews (unless White Christmas will be considered a special event, but I think it qualifies as a new musical)

If all the rumored transfers happen:
Billy Elliot
[title of show]
Road Show (how can they not nominate a new Sondheim show?)
FELA!

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As much as I love "Die, Vampire, Die," I don't think it's the best song to sing on the Tonys. First of all, imagine all the bleeping. It just wouldn't be the same censored. Second, it doesn't sum up the fun, touching, inspiring nature of the show like "Nine People's Favorite Thing" or "A Way Back to Then" (which they might do if Heidi gets a nod).

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Yero, you beat me to it. I was gonna say that they'd probably do something to the effect of the medley they did for Broadway on Broadway, performing "Untitled Opening Number" and "A Way Back to Then," especially if Heidi gets nominated. "Nine People's Favorite Thing" would be nice too. If the show gets nominated (and I hope it does), I hope they will be allowed to perform. I mean, if Side Show was allowed to perform a duet and if they had that trio of non-nominees perform last year, then let [tos] perform!

~Steven

Obviously, BILLY ELLIOT is the current frontrunner.

From what I hear though, they are really whipping 9 TO 5 into shape. It's supposed to be getting better and better by the day.

Well, now that I think about it, I could kinda see [tos] getting nominated by default. This season (as far as new musicals go, without FELA and ROAD SHOW transferring) is very "blah".

I don't think it will be completely forgotten. They'll make sure of it one way or another.

~Steven

I really hope you're right, MrMusic.

I just thought of something -- if they perform on the Tonys, they should do the full version of the Tony Award Song. You know, the one that Hunter starts singing in the show and then stops because it's pandering. That would be funny.

On the other hand, it would also be pretty sad if they sang that song and didn't win, so maybe not.

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Updated On: 11/18/08 at 01:39 PM

well... the part about shows not being able to perform if they arent running?

well... what about sideshow? i mean, i know that the two girls were nominated for best actress but the show still was not running... so, that rule might not apply?

Especially with the fact that last year, the three new musicals that weren't nominated were allowed to perform, I don't see why [tos] wouldn't perform...


I just wonder if they'll allow the non-nominated musicals to perform again this year.

I always thought that the reason closed shows didn't perform is simply that the sets were in storage, the actors had moved on, and it was just not practical or feasible to get everyone back together, relearn everything (if necessary), just for one performance that wouldn't do any good promotion-wise. It's not a rule that closed shows can't perform, they just usually don't. At least, that's what I thought.

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9 TO 5 will certainly get a nod over SHREK if that's what it comes down to.

Even the most cynical of critics that I know who saw the show in San Fran said it's leagues and leagues better than SHREK is now and it's already in previews on Broadway.

Plus I think (unless it's well-crafted which I hear SHREK is far from) the Tonys are beginning to stray from money-hungry movie-to-musical adaptations a bit.