Posted: 3/29/17 at 9:35am
If the Groundhog Day reviews are similar to the raves of the London production, then it will take the 4th slot. If there's a fifth slot again this year I also think it will be Anastasia.
Posted: 3/29/17 at 9:53am
all this thread has accomplished is confirming that beyond the definites and the definitely nots there is no way of intelligently stating anything about the show(s) that will be nominated. When different people just in this microcosm are certain a given show will and will not be nominated, it's clear that the choice(s) will come down to the wire.
Posted: 3/29/17 at 10:22am
Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Why are several of you predicting A Bronx Tale as a possible nominee for Best Musical? The critical response wasn't that great (even though critics aren't on the nominating committee), and I also have no idea where else it could possibly show up on nomination morning. Maybe Featured Actor?
"
Since the Tonys have a New/Revival split in the top categories, shows are frequently nominated for Best Musical/Play without receiving any other nominations or getting just 1 or 2 additional. "Outside Mullingar" was nominated for Best Play and nothing else. "Annie" had the same fate in Musical Revival. "Bring it On" showed up in Best Musical, but its only other citation was Choreography. There are many more examples. If DEH, CFA, and Comet remain head and shoulders above the competition, then the 4th nominee may not get widespread tony love. I'm not currently betting on A Bronx Tale, but it could definitely show up in featured actor, choreography, scenic design depending on how the spring shows turn out. That would be more than plenty of other "bottom tier" best musical nominees get.
Posted: 3/29/17 at 10:49am
Yeah, I definitely wouldn't rule A Bronx Tale out.
Posted: 3/29/17 at 11:18am
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Why are several of you predicting A Bronx Tale as a possible nominee for Best Musical? The critical response wasn't that great (even though critics aren't on the nominating committee), and I also have no idea where else it could possibly show up on nomination morning. Maybe Featured Actor?"
Since the Tonys have a New/Revival split in the top categories, shows are frequently nominated for Best Musical/Play without receiving any other nominations or getting just 1 or 2 additional. "Outside Mullingar" was nominated for Best Play and nothing else. "Annie" had the same fate in Musical Revival. "Bring it On" showed up in Best Musical, but its only other citation was Choreography. There are many more examples. If DEH, CFA, and Comet remain head and shoulders above the competition, then the 4th nominee may not get widespread tony love. I'm not currently betting on A Bronx Tale, but it could definitely show up in featured actor, choreography, scenic design depending on how the spring shows turn out. That would be more than plenty of other "bottom tier" best musical nominees get."
Don't forget that Alan Menken & Glenn Slater's last musical, Leap of Faith only received one Tony nomination for Best Musical back in 2012.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 8:57am
I will be shocked if it is not Groundhog Day or War Paint. I think Groundhog Day has the edge out of the two though.
Updated On: 4/25/17 at 08:57 AM
Posted: 4/25/17 at 8:58am
Unless the reviews for Bandstand are amazing and no one's expecting it, I'm 90% Groundhog Day is getting the 4th slot.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:08am
With the NYT review, there's no way it'll be Anastasia. I think it's:
Come Far Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Great Comet
War Paint
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:25am
I know that critics don't vote for the awards, but I thought it would be interesting to compare how the musicals of the year have ranked so far with the actual critics (not including audience votes) on Show-Score to see what the general consensus was. Here are the scores as they stand:
Dear Evan Hansen: 88
Great Comet: 81
Come from Away: 77
Groundhog Day and Holiday Inn: tied at 71
War Paint: 68
Anastasia: 66
Bronx Tale: 64
In Transit: 61
Amelie: 55
Paramour: 48
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: 42
We'll know tomorrow night how Bandstand fares with the critics!
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:25am
DEH, winner
COMET
COME FROM AWAY
GROUNDHOG
if there is a fifth --- BRONX TALE
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:27am
Mike66 said: "DEH, winner
COMET
COME FROM AWAY
GROUNDHOG
if there is a fifth --- BRONX TALE
"
Agree 100%
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:51am
djoko84 said: "From the early word from previews, War Paint, Amelie, and Charlie are duds. A Bronx Tale got mixed to bad reviews. Fourth slot will be between Groundhog Day and Anastasia. Both will get in if there are five. Best Musical Tony is between DEH and Come From Away.
"
I am in complete agreement here.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 9:55am
I don't see why there wouldnt' be a 5th slot. I don't trust the "voting/tabulation" thing at all. It makes more PR sense all-around to have 5 musicals on the slate rather than just 4.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 11:07am
Trish2 said: "I don't see why there wouldnt' be a 5th slot. I don't trust the "voting/tabulation" thing at all. It makes more PR sense all-around to have 5 musicals on the slate rather than just 4."
Why does it make more sense? And you don't "trust" it? What's to trust? It's the procedure as stated in the nominating rules. We didn't get 5 nominees three years ago when Bridges COULD have been the 5th nominee, but did get one last year with Bright Star. Why? Because there were fewer than 3 votes between the 4th and 5th place vote getters.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 11:13am
I can't see War Paint sneaking its way into the fourth or fifth slot.
I'd agree and say DEH, Great Comet, and Come From Away are locks though. I see Groundhog Day as a potential lock for the fourth.
Part of me is also not counting out Amelie. I think Phillipa is lock for Best Actress and who knows what voters are still riding out that Hamilton love.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 11:17am
Phillipa is not at all a lock for a Best Actress nod and Amelie is almost definitely not getting nominated for Best Musical. With such a crowded year, I wouldn't be surprised to see it shut out entirely.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 11:28am
loveinnewyorkcity said: "I can't see War Paint sneaking its way into the fourth or fifth slot.
I'd agree and say DEH, Great Comet, and Come From Away are locks though. I see Groundhog Day as a potential lock for the fourth.
"Potential lock" is an oxymoron.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 11:47am
hork said: ""Potential lock" is an oxymoron."
Wrong. It totally has a guaranteed chance.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 12:38pm
Should be GROUNDHOG DAY considering the reviews ANASTASIA just got. I doubt BANDSTAND will get better reviews that what GROUNDHOG DAY got.
Posted: 4/25/17 at 1:37pm
Groundhog Day
