2017 Best New Musical - 4th slot

[cb2addict2]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 10:59pm

Hey all on the boards. Been a lurker on here for many months now and just joined to finally start engaging in the conversation. Speaking of which, I was curious about this topic. Yes I know there is a long drawn out post where this has been discussed in the "way too early 2017 predictions" thread - but considering it is now no longer "way too early" - and all new musicals coming in this year are open or at least in previews, I thought it would be helpful and interesting for folks to start talking about this category in a separate thread.

It appears COMET and DEH are locks (feel free to debate me on this), and I would wager a strong bet COME FROM AWAY is going to be welcomed here as well - so who's left for #4? What does everyone think? Close tie between them all, and end up with 5 musicals this year? Discuss...x

 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:01pm

I'd agree with you that Come From Away, Dear Evan Hansen, and The Great Comet are headed toward Best Musical nominations. Just to help facilitate your discussion, I wanted to include the full list of potential nominees this season: 

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Edit: Personally, I think the fourth slot will be between Anastasia and War Paint, though I'm leaning toward the former.

Updated On: 3/28/17 at 11:01 PM

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:07pm

Will they have more slots this year? With so many nominees, it seems likely they'd extend the category.

[The_Spielers_2017]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:09pm

4th Slot- Groundhog Day

IF THERE'S A FIFTH SLOT- Anastasia

[ggersten]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:12pm

The rule is:

"Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less."

[GhostXmasPast]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:13pm

The_Spielers_2017 said: "4th Slot- Groundhog Day

IF THERE'S A FIFTH SLOT- Anastasia

I would suggest "Bronx Tale" in fourth spot.

 

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:16pm

IMO:

Dear Evan Hansen 

The Great Comet

Come From Away

Groundhog Day 

War Paint

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:16pm

At this point, we should wait and see how Amelie, Anastasia, Bandstand, Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, Groundhog Day, and War Paint end up being received on their opening nights. Though I currently think the fourth slot will go to Anastasia.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:21pm

those fourth & possibly fifth slots are completely up in the air. As of now I'd eliminate IN TRANSIT, HOLIDAY INN & PARAMOUR. The rest are still too early to be decided.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:27pm

I think ACL gets this right and anything beyond that (regarding the 4/5th slots is malarkey. 

[Butter Broadway]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:34pm

By Friday, all musicals will be running, and we will be able to really crack down on Tony nominations.

As of right now I think Dear Evan Hansen, Natasha Pierre, Come From Away, Groundhog Day, and Bronx Tale or Anastasia for 5th slot.  War Paint and Chocolate Factory have problems. Amelie and Bandstand don't seem like hits.

 

Updated On: 3/28/17 at 11:34 PM

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:39pm

Other than the 3 already mentioned as extremely likely (Dear Evan Hansen, Great Comet, Come From Away), I have seen Amelie (in Berkeley), War Paint (Goodman), and Anastasia (Broadway). Based on my experiences alone and without seeing the others, I would give the edge to Anastasia. I was not a fan of the other two as shows although I was glad I saw War Paint for the leading ladies. Of course it's not fair to judge these two shows on their pre-Broadway performances alone but since I am not likely to see them again, that's all I have to go by. And since I havent seen the others (and probably won't) I can't speak to those. 

From what I've seen and read, Dear Evan Hansen, Great Comet, and Come From Away are head and shoulders ahead of the other potential nominees.  And they're all so different I honestly have trouble deciding who I think "should" win (although Dear Evan Hansen is the most likely to actually win, I think...)

 

[VotePeron]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:46pm

Have you people seen War Paint? No chance in hell that's getting a Best Musical nomination. 

[froote]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 11:55pm

Anastasia

Alt: Groundhog Day

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 12:03am

Why are several of you predicting A Bronx Tale as a possible nominee for Best Musical? The critical response wasn't that great (even though critics aren't on the nominating committee), and I also have no idea where else it could possibly show up on nomination morning. Maybe Featured Actor?

[HenryTDobson]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 12:06am

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Why are several of you predicting A Bronx Tale as a possible nominee for Best Musical? The critical response wasn't that great (even though critics aren't on the nominating committee), and I also have no idea where else it could possibly show up on nomination morning. Maybe Featured Actor?

 

"

As you said yourself, the critics have no say. If all of the new spring shows end up as duds or mediocre, I think A Bronx Tale, which has enough respect in the theater community, could pick up that 4th slot.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 12:09am

No way they're nominating Anastasia over Groundhog Day. 

[ZellMorrowsPledge]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 12:13am

RippedMan said: "No way they're nominating Anastasia over Groundhog Day. 

 

"

I agree

[Butter Broadway]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 12:18am

Yes that's what I said. The 4th slot will probably go to Groundhog Day. If there is a 5th, I think it will go to Anastasia or Bronx Tale, unless Bandstand becomes a surprise hit.

Updated On: 3/29/17 at 12:18 AM

[froote]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 1:03am

RippedMan said: "No way they're nominating Anastasia over Groundhog Day. "

...Why?

[djoko84]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 6:28am

From the early word from previews, War Paint, Amelie, and Charlie are duds. A Bronx Tale got mixed to bad reviews. Fourth slot will be between Groundhog Day and Anastasia. Both will get in if there are five. Best Musical Tony is between DEH and Come From Away.

[MadonnaMusical]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 7:02am

I don't see a way that Groundhog Day could get a best musical nomination. It's just too divisive. Anastasia seems to be the safer pick... I also agree that Bronx Tale could get there. Here are my predictions:

GREAT COMET (my pick for best musical)
DEAR EVAN HANSEN
COME FROM AWAY
ANASTASIA
BRONX TALE

Though I admittedly feel silly making them... still having not seen Bandstand or Charlie. 

[Rainah]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 8:12am

Grounndhog day or Anastasia I feel

[cb2addict2]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 9:26am

I really have to see Anastasia and War Paint to properly give my own opinion, but I too was wondering if A BRONX TALE may be a dark horse wild surprise in the category somehow. 

[Emmaloucbway]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 9:35am

If the Groundhog Day reviews are similar to the raves of the London production, then it will take the 4th slot. If there's a fifth slot again this year I also think it will be Anastasia.