2025 Pulitzer Prize prediction, with statistics

It's been a hot second since we had the Pulitzer winner of this year, so it's totally not too early to predict the next one! Why not? It's fun, for me.

Here are the winners from the past 15 years. Two from out of town, three opened in the second half of the year. 2/3 of the winners had opened by the end of June. Which means next year's winner has probably already happened or is happening right now.

• 2024: Primary Trust (5/4-7/2/23)
• 2023: English (2/5-3/20/22)
• 2022: Fat Ham (4/29-5/23/21)
• 2021: The Hot Wing King (2/11-3/15/20)
• 2020: A Strange Loop (5/24-7/7/19)
• 2019: Fairview (6/2-8/12/18)
• 2018: Cost of Living (5/16-7/16/17)
• 2017: Sweat (10/18-12/18/16)
• 2016: Hamilton (1/20-5/3/15)
• 2015: Between Riverside and Crazy (7/10-8/17/14)
• 2014: The Flick (2/15-4/7/13)
• 2013: Disgraced (10/7-12/23/12)
• 2012: Water by the Spoonful (10/20-11/13/11)
• 2011: Clybourne Park (1/29-3/7/2010)
• 2010: Next to Normal (3/27/2009-)

To narrow down the suspects, here are the NY theatre companies that produced Pulitzer winners in recent history:

• Atlantic Theater Company
• Lincoln Center Theater
• Manhattan Theatre Club
• MCC Theater
• New York Theatre Workshop
• Playwrights Horizons
• Public Theater
• Roundabout Theatre Company
• Second Stage Theatre
• Signature Theatre Company
• Soho Rep
• Vineyard Theatre

Adding the fact that only one recent winner didn't get the NYT's Critics' Pick (The Hot Wing King), here are all the plays from the above companies and Broadway that have received a Critics' Pick this year:

• The Apiary (Second Stage Theatre)
• The Fires (Soho Rep)
• Jonah (Roundabout Theatre Company)
• The Lonely Few (MCC Theater, but it had a west coast premiere last year and may not be eligible)
• Mother Play (Broadway)
• Sally & Tom (Public Theater)

What do you think? Which one of these could be our winner?

The fact that the Pulitzer has gone to a woman or a person of color every year since Water by the Spoonful honestly kicks ass.

Dear God please not Mother Play. It would be a disgrace to the award.

WindyNewYorker said: "Sondheim’s Here We Are."

Here We Are would have qualified for last year (the eligibility pool announced a few weeks ago). And I doubt they submitted, considering they opted out of other awards eligibility. If that’s the case, that technically means they still could submit for a later year, but only if it received another production.

As for Suffs: normally when a show has already had a major NYC run (in this case at the Public), I assume that it was submitted for that run, and therefore ineligible currently. But Suffs actually does seem like the type of show to be a rare exception, since they ended their run knowing they planned to continue working on the show, and probably opted not to submit. So, maybe!

So far, potential contenders I’d be most rooting for are Jordans and The Ally. Maybe even Three Houses? I wouldn’t mind Jonah either.