Actor Musical Predictions - 2024 Tonys

Lead Actor

• Jonathan Groff, Merrily
• Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret
• Brian d'Arcy James, Days of Wine & Roses
• Chip Zien, Harmony
• Ali Louis Bourzgui, Tommy

Featured Actor

• Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily
• Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen
• Conrad Ricamora, Here Lies Love
• Roger Bart, Back to the Future
• Brody Grant, The Outsiders
• Paul Alexander Nolan, Water for Elephants

Is Chip the lead in Harmony?

Don't forget

Greg in WFE

The father in BTTF

Numerous dancers in Illinoise

Lots to choose from this year

Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes, Jonathan Groff, Brian Darcy James, Eddie Redmayne.


Corey Cott, James Monroe Iglehart, and Grant Gustin are the only other leading males. I don’t know how they will rule on Chip Zien or Noah Ricketts but I’m assuming featured. So 8 leading men in total. Let’s also not forget John Zdrojeski in Great Gatsby, he’s WONDERFUL.

Updated On: 3/25/24 at 01:10 AM

I've been operating under the assumption that Chip Zien will be lead in Harmony (because he brings us through the story and no one else would really qualify). Gregg Edelman on the other hand while he occupies the same type of role, has much less of a presence (and honestly his role almost felt extraneous), so I think Grant Gustin will be the lead there. And I would assume Jeremy Jordan lead and Noah Ricketts featured as well.

I know there's some talk about Tommy since Michael Cerveris was featured, but is it pretty assumed that Ali Louis Bourzgui would be lead this time around?

My personal predictions (with a lot of limited knowledge):

Lead Actor

• Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
• Brian D'arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
• Eddie Redmayne - Cabaret
• Chip Zien - Harmony
• Ricky Ubeda - Illinoise
  Haven't seen Illinoise/Tommy/Outsiders yet, so I could see this going to Ali Louis Bourzgui or Brody Grant (if considered lead) as well, but I think the top 4 feel pretty locked in to me, with some possible wiggle room on Chip

Featured Actor

• Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
• Paul Alexander Nolan - Water for Elephants
• Ryan Vasquez - The Notebook
• Adam Jacobs - Tommy
• Wayne Brady - The Wiz
  The only ones I'm really sure of in this category are Daniel Radcliffe and Paul Alexander Nolan, assuming that for Notebook they put the oldest couple in lead and the others in featured. Adam Jacobs also seems to be getting good notices for Tommy based on this board, and I'd LOVE for Conrad Ricamora to get a nom. I personally wasn't a fan of Hugh Coles, but considering he won the Olivier and has gotten fairly good reviews, he could also definitely show up here

I forgot Reg in Merrily. He's a vet with lots of friends.

Chip Zien has never been nominated for a Tony award. He got okay notices for a role that will have been closed 3 months before these nominations come out. Could this finally be his first nod? Perhaps. But everyone seems to be acting like he's a virtual lock, which seems a little odd.

Right now I have the exact same Leading nominees as you (Robbie2). But, I hadn't considered that Illinoise might get some acting categories. I haven't seen it, but it does sound like Ricky Ubeda could knock out Ali Louis Bourzgui.

For featured, I have:

• Daniel Radcliffe
• Conrad Ricamora
• Brandon Victor-Dixon
• Ato Blankson-Wood
• Steven Skybell

I'm VERY not committed to that though. Only Radcliffe is locked in. The rest I'll probably change a dozen times before the end of April as I see stuff, reviews come out, and people post and write predictions.

I'm curious what people think about the plays too. Best Actor seems like it's 5 credible nominees (Odom Jr., Stuhlbarg, Schreiber, Carrel, Strong) for 4 nominations and picking which one gets cut might prove challenging. Featured Actor seems like such a crapshoot. Feels extremely wide open to me at the moment. Easily the hardest of the acting categories to predict.