I think it's between Fairchild and Cerveris, and right now feel Fairchild is one step ahead. As others mentioned, he seems to be everywhere and he has the momentum of the charming-American-wins-it-all right now. I loved his performance in AAIP, but I would rather not have him win this award. I mean come on, he's a NYCP principal landing his first Broadway (lead!) role who suddenly can sing and act out of nowhere, has Hollywood-good-looks, a equally talented and beautiful wife and by Social Media standards (I know...) leads a tooth-achingly sweet life - and now he should also win a Tony over those Broadway veterans? Please universe, some justice, balance this out 
And if he won, the reasons leading him to win should also make Leanne Cope win (and I think she deserves it for her performane) but interestingly enough, in the female category I think no one really gives AAIP a chance above the Broadway all-stars.